5 Bold Predictions for the F1 Japanese Grand Prix

Matt Hylen
1 day ago
4 min read

Photo graphic found via suzukacircuit.jp

An electric atmosphere, an iconic track, and an unforgettable weekend; these just scratch the surface of what Suzuka, Japan brings to the Formula One calendar. Not only that, but more and more controversy has sprung up already this weekend. Qualifying as a whole keeps getting worse and drivers are more furious than ever, with fans upset about the inability for cars to take corners like they used to.

With all that said, we did get an interesting pecking order for Sunday's race. Mercedes reigned supreme once again, with Kimi Antonelli on pole for the 2nd straight race and Russell just a few tenths of a second off in 2nd. McLaren also had a strong qualifying, with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris securing a spot in the top 5. Ferrari rounded out the other two top-5 slots, but it was Red Bull that was the disaster. Max Verstappen had arguably his worst qualifying performance in years, with the car being nowhere near the pace of the front runners.

Nevertheless, we are in for what could be another exciting weekend of racing, so let's get predicting! However, before we do that, here is a look at the starting grid for Sunday's race (updated 4 p.m. EST):

Kimi Antonelli
George Russell
Oscar Piastri
Charles Leclerc
Lando Norris
Lewis Hamilton
Pierre Gasly
Isack Hadjar
Gabriel Bortoleto
Arvid Lindblad
Max Verstappen
Esteban Ocon
Nico Hülkenberg
Liam Lawson
Franco Colapinto
Carlos Sainz
Alex Albon
Oliver Bearman
Sergio Perez
Valterri Bottas
Fernando Alonso
Lance Stroll

Oliver Bearman Will Secure Points

After a flaming hot start to 2026, Bearman came down to earth on Saturday, finishing P18 in Qualifying. This was partially due to a problem his car was having, but it still was not a great look for the young Brit.

Despite the poor start to the weekend, I think Bearman will finish strong. We all know the kind of pace he can unlock in this year's Haas, so with a Ferrari engine behind him, I expect Ollie to make ground quickly. Sure, points are a big ask considering how impossible Suzuka is to overtake at times, yet I believe Bearman has the car behind him and the talent within him to not only make up serious ground but to secure points once again in 2026.

A Top-Runner will Cause a Red Flag

Suzuka is no stranger to the red flag, that is for sure. With the cars coming in such close proximity through the S's of lap one, it is never surprising when we see contact. However, where my bold prediction comes in is that I believe someone driving near the top of the grid will cause a red flag.

By top-runner, I classify Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren as such this weekend. So, I believe one or more drivers from those teams will make contact with another car, which results in a red flag. It is rare these days to see top runners collide, especially with the amount of talent each of these three teams has. Yet, I can't help but envision a situation where a team tries to make a move early and it backfires on them.

Max Verstappen will Finish the Race Outside the Points

This weekend has been an absolute nightmare for Max Verstappen so far. To not only get outqualified by your teammate on merit, but to lose out on Q3 to a rookie on Red Bull's junior team in Arvid Lindblad, is not a good look.

This type of car just does not suit Verstappen's driving style. We are seeing him struggle in ways we have never seen before, with the 4-time champion being miles off the front-runners. Sure, his car is not helping him, but even his talent cannot save him from his form. I do not see Max scoring points this week; he is driving angry and pessimistic right now, which is never a recipe for success.

McLaren will Secure a Podium Finish

Photo credit to McLaren F1 Team media pool

If McLaren can get both cars off the starting line this weekend and limit the mechanical failures, they have a great chance at a podium this weekend. The pace has been right on point with Ferrari, even with the hiccups they've experienced in Suzuka. I mean, Oscar Piastri has to start this race, right?

I really do think McLaren will capitalize on the opportunity this race could bring them. Sure, Mercedes are the favorite to win, but wins are not what they should be shooting for right now. If they can get both cars across the starting and finish line, they will contend for a podium this weekend.

George Russell will Win the Japanese Grand Prix

With the opening corners of Suzuka always chaotic, we are bound to see a lead change or two before lap one is done. If Russell can get a good start off the line and take the lead in the first couple of laps, I think it'll be smooth sailing from there.

Of course, Kimi Antonelli will not make things easy, but I think George takes advantage of the difficulty of the track and gets the better of Kimi in the race. Qualifying was up and down, but Russell should be able to perform when the points are on the line.