5 BOLD Predictions for the F1 Miami Grand Prix

Matt Hylen
May 2
4 min read

Updated: May 3

After what has seemed like forever, Formula One is finally back and in full swing for what is round 4 of the 2026 season. Rumors swirled around all throughout the "spring break" regarding upgrades and pace progression, and boy did they not disappoint.

McLaren were one of three teams who have really stepped things up since we last saw racing in Japan. After finishing 1-2 in Sprint Qualifying, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri were able to secure the first win and double podium of 2026 for McLaren.

However, things changed between then and Qualifying. Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari all were able to find major pace, causing McLaren to struggle mightily during all three qualifying sessions. Regardless, we will likely have a 4-team battle for the win on Sunday.

As for what the starting grid will look like, here is how qualifying for the Grand Prix ended (updated 5/3 at 12pm EST):

Kimi Antonelli
Max Versteppen
Charles Leclerc
Lando Norris
George Russell
Lewis Hamilton
Oscar Piastri
Franco Colapinto
Pierre Gasly
Nick Hülkenberg
Liam Lawson
Ollie Bearman
Carlos Sainz
Esteban Ocon
Alex Albon
Arvid Lindblad
Fernando Alonso
Lance Stroll
Valtteri Bottss
Sergio Perez
Gabriel Bortoleto
Isack Hadjar (Pit Lane)

So, with all the housekeeping out of the way, let's get right into my bold predicitons for the race!

Franco Colapinto will Finish Ahead of His Teammate

Franco Colapinto is quietly having one of, if not the best, weekends of his Alpine career. He has qualified and finished inside the top 10 in every session thus far, which includes an 8th place start for the Grand Prix while his teammate Pierre Gasly sits 10th. Gasly has also looked very solid thus far this weekend, but I think this is finally the weekend Colapinto puts it all together and produces a great all-around weekend. Alpine has been waiting for this version of Colapinto to present itself; I think Colapinto hits the ground running at lights-out and maintains his points-scoring position ahead of his teammate Gasly.

There will be Multiple Red Flags During the Race

As I'm sure most of you know by now, the current expectation is that we will see some heavy rain during the race. Obviously, rain during any race makes things even more dangerous and unpredictable for the drivers, but we are in a new era now with a brand new style of car. It is unknown how well these cars will handle in wet conditions, with the extent of what could happen endless. So, I could absolutely see a crash or two happening during the race that creates a red flag. The unknown regarding these cars in wet conditions scares me a little, so I am ready for absolutely anything to happen.

The Red Bull Driver Concerns will Arise Again as a Result of the Grand Prix

Based on Max Verstappen's performance to this point in the weekend, Red Bull's upgrades seem to be working. Verstappen is back competing at the top, with the car overall looking a lot more comfortable to drive.

With that said, Isack Hadjar has been nowhere near the pace of Verstappen all weekend long. He was 8.59 tenths of a second off Max in SQ3, was beaten by an Alpine and didn't score a point in the Sprint, and is sitting in 9th to Max's 2nd in the main race qualifying with 8.225 tenths of a second between them.

Now, am I calling for a replacement for Hadjar? No, absolutely not; I am a big believer in Hadjar's ability. He is still a young driver trying to find his way through a new team, but we all know how the media likes to talk. Yet, with Hadjar's performance thus far in Miami shaky at best, I can see why. If Max finishes on the podium with Hadjar starting from the pit lane, it is just not a good look, especially considering the upgrades are working.

Ferrari will Secure a Double Podium

I am not sure what is compelling me to buy into the Ferrari hype since they have not looked like the fastest car at any point this weekend, but I have this feeling that the Tifosi will end the day as happy fans.

I think a lot would have to go right for Ferrari, especially if Lewis Hamilton wants to get into the top 3, but with the wet conditions likely, anything can happen. Both Charles Leclerc and Hamilton have shown flashes this weekend in what is a completely reworked car (11 upgrades brought to Miami), so I think it is possible we see good pace out of both of them come Sunday.

So, I am predicitng another great weekend for Ferrari. Their race start abolity should give them an edge in the rain, but not quote enough to get the win.

Max Verstappen will Win the Miami Grand Prix

Whenever there are wet conditions, my first thought is always Max Verstappen. He is the best wet weather driver in the sport by a significant margin, so with the number of unknowns being what it is right now, I have to believe Max will have the advantage. He starts 2nd on the grid behind Kimi Antonelli, who has yet to get off the line and not lose places, so I have every reason to believe this race could be a Verstappen masterclass. If he can get the lead early, expect Max's pure skill and ability to pull him away from the rest and finish the weekend in dominant fashion.