5 Bold Predictions for the F1 Monaco Grand Prix

Round 8 of 2025 and the second race of a triple header is here! The teams travel to the ever-iconic Monaco track in Monte Carlo, which is bound to bring chaos in one way or another. This 78-lap race will feature a new two-stop requirement during the race, intensifying the racing even more. With qualifying done and the drivers set, let's make some predictions for the Monaco Grand Prix.

As a reminder, here are the qualifying results for Sunday's race. Note that some drivers have received grid penalties (Lewis Hamilton, Ollie Bearman, and Lance Stroll), which will be reflected here.

1. Lando Norris

2. Charles Leclerc

3. Oscar Piastri

4. Max Verstappen

5. Isak Hadjar

6. Fernando Alonso

7. Lewis Hamilton

8. Esteban Ocon

9. Liam Lawson

10. Alex Albon

11. Carlos Sainz

12. Yuki Tsunoda

13. Nico Hulkenberg

14. George Russell

15. Andrea Kimi Antonelli

16. Gabriel Bortoletto

17. Pierre Gasly

18. Franco Colapinto

19. Lance Stroll

20. Oliver Bearman

VCARB Score Double-Digit Points

After a career-best qualifying result for both Liam Lawson and Isak Hadjar, VCARB has a fantastic chance to come away with some major Championship points this weekend. With the team struggling in the past couple of races, seeing both drivers thrive in qualifying was a pleasant surprise. They were not just squeaking by, but rather showing legitimate pace around arguably the hardest track on the calendar.

With some major competition behind them, that being both Williams and Mercedes drivers, it will be a tall task to maintain their positioning in the Grand Prix. However, if there was any track to pull off a defensive masterclass, it is Monaco.

The biggest concern will be the strategy for VCARB. They have been prone to costly mistakes this season that have cost them chances at scoring points. With the FIA implementing a required two-stop strategy for the first time in Monaco, adapting will be everything for VCARB. They have to get it right, or else it may be curtains for their hopes to score points.

With that said, I have strong faith that Lawson and Hadjar can pull it off. They have looked strong all weekend long, and with the car performing well, they have a great opportunity to get back in the points-scoring column.

Both Mercedes Score Points

Mercedes has a MAJOR uphill battle this weekend. Due to Kimi Antonelli's crash in Q1 and George Russell's engine failure in Q2, the pair will be starting in 14th and 15th. With the result being the worst they've had in qualifying since Imola in 2022, Mercedes will be looking to do the improbable this weekend, and I think they can do it.

Now, Monaco is known for the chaos it can bring. Every year, we see drivers hitting the wall or colliding with each other, causing safety cars, red flags, and sometimes both. Take last year, for example, when Ocon took out his Alpine teammate Pierre Gasly, while the two Haas drivers collided with Red Bull's Sergio Perez. Consider that with the fact that all drivers are required to make two pit stops and you are basically asking for something to happen.

If Mercedes can keep things clean, wait for their opportunities, and get the strategy right, they can absolutely get into the points this weekend. Granted, a lot would have to happen, but at a track like Monaco, anything is possible.

At Least Five Cars Do Not Finish the Race

Like I've said, Monaco is known for its chaos. In the past 10 race weekends F1 has held in Monaco, there have been, on average, four drivers who do not finish the race. With overtaking opportunities extremely minimal, drivers try to be aggressive when they can, with it oftentimes not working out. Almost every year since 2014 (2020 only saw 1 driver DNF), we see at least two or more cars not finish the race, with it often being more.

I also do not think the two-stop requirement helps the chances of clean racing whatsoever. If a driver in or near the front of the pack gets caught behind traffic, it is more likely than not that they are going to do everything they can to get out of it. Strategy failure is bound to happen for at least one team, which is all that's needed for chaos to ensue. Buckle your seatbelts, folks, because if I am right, we might see a crazy result come Sunday.

Neither McLaren Driver Finish on the Podium

You may be thinking, "Matt, this is a horrible prediction! There is no way that either McLaren driver finishes on the podium!"

Now, you may be right, but hear me out...

McLaren does not look as invincible or untouchable in Monaco as they have on other tracks this season. Norris had to put in the lap of a lifetime in order to steal pole from Charles Leclerc. Combine that with the fact that the cars behind them, that being Leclerc, Max Verstappen, and Lewis Hamilton, have much more experience around the track than both Norris and Piastri, and you may have a fight on your hands.

Ferrari has looked like a completely different team this weekend, while Max Verstappen can never be counted out. I think McLaren's lack of experience compared to the other three drivers behind them, while including the two-stop requirement, makes it absolutely possible for neither Norris nor Piastri to maintain a place on the podium this Sunday.

Charles Leclerc Wins the Monaco Grand Prix

Charles Leclerc has been amazing all weekend long thus far, and was just a few hundredths of a second away from securing a pole position. His pace and experience around his home track is what makes me believe he can pull off another race win in Monaco.

To start off, Lando Norris has a tall task ahead of him. Having hometown hero Charles Leclerc right behind him in 2nd means Lando will have to defend right away. Leclerc understands that if he does not get a move done on Lando on the first corner, the chances of him ever getting a move done will be very slim. Thus, Leclerc will likely go all out and send it into Turn 1.

We have also seen Norris not get off to the best of starts, losing leads off the first corner on multiple different occasions. The first corner of Lap 1 is everything in this race; if Leclerc can jump off the line quickly and get the inside line going into Turn 1 to take the lead, I find it hard to believe he will give it up at any point. He has the car to maintain a lead, and the experience to keep things clean for the duration of the race.

With all that in mind, I have a feeling that Leclerc will pull it off, make his home crowd proud, and win his second Monaco Grand Prix in a row.

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Until next time!

-Matt Hylen