5 BOLD Predictions for the F1 Monaco Grand Prix

Matt Hylen
1 day ago
5 min read

Photo graphic by Marcelo Kananie Marmo/Behance

Round 6 of the 2026 F1 season is underway in Monaco. The pinnacle of motorsport, Monaco is always circled on the calendars of teams, drivers, and fans alike. This iconic street circuit, known for its tight and slow corners and narrow width, is known to be the toughest test for the drivers throughout the entire season. With overtaking so challenging around this circuit, qualifying is everything.

Coming into qualifying, it seemed as though Ferrari was leading a one-horse race for pole position, but that was far from the case. Mercedes' Kimi Antonelli as well as Red Bull's Max Verstappen gave it everything they had to the Ferrari's in Saturday, claiming the first two spots on the grid. As for the rest of the pack, here is a look at how qualifying concluded:

Kimi Antonelli
Max Verstappen
Lewis Hamilton
Charles Leclerc
Isack Hadjar
George Russell
Oscar Piastri
Lando Norris
Pierre Gasly
Liam Lawson
Alex Albon
Carlos Sainz
Nico Hülkenberg
Franco Colapinto
Arvid Lindblad
Gabriel Bortoleto
Esteban Ocon
Sergio Perez
Ollie Bearman
Valtteru Bottas
Fernando Alonso
Lance Stroll

Now, with the Grand Prix only left to go, let's get into my predictions for what should be a chaotic race!

At Least 3 Non-Cadallic/Aston Martin Drivers will DNF During the Race

Since at least one Aston Martin and Cadillac is almost guaranteed to DNF during races, I felt that it would not be bold to just say my prediction will leave their result out of the equation.

I think we will see carnage during the race. Lap one is drivers' best chance to gain positions, which means many will try to be aggressive right away. I would be shocked, especially considering how chaotic race starts have been this year, if we do not see at least a few non-Cadillac/Aston Martin drivers collide with another driver or the wall and end their day early.

Sure, the cars are smaller this year compared to previous years, which could make overtaking easier, but that should only make drivers more aggressive in my opinion. You have what could be Max Verstappen's only chance at a win this season, the Williams drivers are right outside the points after a dreadful season start, as well as the likes of the McLaren boys and George Russell down the order and trying to salvage the weekend. To me, that makes a recipe for chaos.

Both Williams Drivers will Score Points

Photo credit to Williams F1 Team via Pit Debrief

Williams have looked extremely solid all weekend long to this point. Both Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz have shown good pace that is in close proximity to each other, which is always a good sign. Plus, with other midfield teams like Alpine, VCARB, and Audi not having the best results in Qualifying, points should be on the table for both Albon and Sainz.

With the two starting behind Pierre Gasly and Liam Lawson, they will have some work to do to get into a points-scoring position. Yet, if my first prediction comes to fruition, a little luck may also naturally propel Williams to a place they are hoping to be. Albon and Sainz both have enough experience to keep things clean, so it will just be a matter of good strategy and a bit of luck towards the front or from a Safety Car/Red Flag.

There will be a Two-Lap Gap Between the Top 4 Teams and the Rest of the Grid

Looking at this sector breakdown for each driver, the overall distance between the top four teams and the remaining seven is not really that close. Plus, there wasn't a single driver on a team other than Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull that surpassed the 1-minute, 12-second threshold in qualifying. Though qualifying times and overall race lap times are not the same, it can still paint the picture of how much faster Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull are than the rest of the grid.

Based on the gaps in Canada, while considering that Monaco is the shortest track on the grid, I cannot see a world where at some point in the race the gap between the top four teams and the remaining seven is not a gigantic one. We always see crazy gaps in Monaco, but I predict that this instance will be even worse than we have seen in recent memory.

Neither Mercedes Driver will Finish on the Podium

As a Mercedes fan myself, I truly hope I am wrong, but I cannot help but feel like things are going to go wrong for Mercedes during the Grand Prix. George Russell has been struggling for pace once again and is starting 6th on Sunday, pretty much eliminating him from contending for a win. Sure, something towards the front could happen, resulting in him moving up places, but Russell is driving with next to no confidence in himself and the car. Unless he and the team find something overnight or the car decides to wake up and show race pace, I firmly expect Russell to struggle again during the race.

As for Kimi Antonelli, getting pole position when Mercedes was expected to struggle for pace this weekend is a remarkable achievement and just a testament to his current form. With that said, I think he might show his youth when trying to defend his leading position.

Monaco is a track that is already hard enough to stay out of the wall. Antonelli not only has to worry about that, but also the fact that he has a hungry Max Verstappen with nothing to lose. It would be crazy for Max not to try to take the lead on lap 1, for it could be his only chance at a win this year. Again, I truly hope I am wrong, but I am predicting that fending off Verstappen and the Ferrari drivers will be too much for the Championship leader to handle.

Max Verstappen will Win the Monaco Grand Prix

I've said it a lot and I'll say it again: this is likely going to be Max Verstappen's best chance to win a race this season. With Red Bull simply not there in terms of overall pace, Monaco's track layout has presented a unique opportunity for Verstappen to shock the world and compete for a win on Sunday.

What is helping Max's case is the fact that the track is relying more on driver talent than engine power. With no straight mode zones, Max has been able to rely on his ability, which cancels out the fact that the car is not that good this season.

So, if Max can take the lead heading into turn one at the start, there should be no turning back. The difficulty to overtake, along with Verstappen's defensive ability, should allow him to maintain a lead without any major issues. To put it simply: Max has nothing to lose because no one expected him to win the race anyway, which makes him more dangerous to his opponents than ever before. I predict that we will see a more aggressive Verstappen than usual, going all out for a win on Sunday.