5 BOLD Predictions for the F1 United States Grand Prix

Matt Hylen
Oct 18
4 min read

I mean, what a start to the weekend!

After a WILD sprint race on Saturday, round 19 of the 2025 F1 season has started off with a bang. We finally saw McLaren carnage, which was a long time coming, as well as Max Verstappen cutting into the Drivers' Championship deficit a little bit more. With the way the COTA in Austin, Texas, is laid out, truly anything can happen come Sunday.

Now, before we get into my bold predictions (and I've got some bold ones cooked up for you all), here is a quick look at how the drivers will start Sunday's race:

Max Verstappen
Lando Norris
Charles Leclerc
George Russell
Lewis Hamilton
Oscar Piastri
Kimi Antonelli
Oliver Bearman
Carlos Sainz
Fernando Alonso
Nick Hülkenberg
Liam Lawson
Yuki Tsunoda
Pierre Gasly
Franco Colapinto
Gabriel Bortoleto
Esteban Ocon
Lance Stroll
Alex Albon
Isack Hadjar

With that, let's get predicting, shall we?

BOTH Williams Drivers will Score Points

Williams has legitimate pace around COTA. We saw this from both Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz in sprint qualifying and the sprint itself, with the two making it into SQ3 and finishing 3rd (Sainz) and 6th (Albon). In qualifying for the main race, Sainz had no major issues, but Albon exceeded track limits in Q1, deleting the lap time that would have gotten him through to Q2.

So, though Albon is starting 19th, we've already seen that drivers riding at the back of the grid can make up places very quickly. Look at what Yuki Tsunoda did in the Sprint; he qualified 18th but took advantage of the crash and moved all the way up to 7th after lap one. Anything can happen around COTA, and if Albon can use his proven pace to his advantage while having some luck on his side, it is not out of the realm of possibility for both Williams drivers to finish in the top ten.

Ferrari will NOT Finish in the Top 5

Though they did look better in the main race qualifying, I am going to be a non-believer in Ferrari for the Grand Prix. They looked good enough in the Sprint, with Lewis Hamilton finishing 4th and Charles Leclerc finishing 5th, but I am yet to be convinced that this car's pace will sustain over a full race. 3rd and 5th is a great place to start if you're Ferrari, but with the likes of Russell and Piastri lurking with better cars, it'll be too difficult for Ferrari to hold them off.

There will NOT be a Safety Car During the Race

I feel that, at this point, it may be bolder to bet against a safety car appearance than one actually happening. Of course, there was an absolute scrap heading into turn 1, but I am not so sure something like that will happen on Sunday. It absolutely could, and granted I hope it does, which is why I have a feeling it will not happen. I have been on a COLD streak regarding safety car predictions, but this will be the week I am right. Unless some back-of-the-pack drivers collide competing for a no-points position, I think McLaren will be much more careful (which was the cause of their double DNF in the Sprint), with Max Verstappen getting through into turn one just as easily as he did today.

The Race Winnell Take the Lead Within the Last 10 Laps

This may sound a little confusing, so let me explain:

Basically, what I am predicting is that whoever wins the race will take the lead over the provisional 1st place holder within the last 10 laps. This could entail any driver overtaking Max Verstappen or Verstappen taking back the lead from whoever he lost it to. In short, I think the race winner will come down to the wire and be determined within the last 10 laps of the race.

Lando Norris will Win the United States Grand Prix

I think this race has a chance to turn the tide in this championship fight. Max Verstappen has dominated all weekend. He has set the pace in qualifying while proving he can separate himself in a race scenario rather quickly. Yet, though the odds seem to favor Max heavily, I cannot shake the feeling that something is going to go wrong for him.

At the end of the sprint, Max complained to his race engineer that the rear of his car was not doing well. Even though he won, it did not seem like he was super confident in where the car is currently in the rear. Now, if he notices this problem in a sprint, how is this going to affect him over an entire Grand Prix? I think Max might struggle as the race progresses, leaving the door open for Norris to attack.

This is the race Norris gets his mojo back. With Piastri struggling in qualifying, all Norris needs is a good start, and he is automatically a contender for the win. Mercedes and Ferrari do not seem to have the race pace to keep up, which allows Norris to leave all his focus on Verstappen. If he can pull this off, which I think he will, this could cause a drastic shift in the Drivers' Championship.

Get your popcorn ready folks, this is about to get mighty interesting...