Can Crochet Win the AL Cy Young?
- Zak Drapeau
- Aug 26
- 4 min read
by Zak Drapeau 8/26/2025 Sportz Nation
Garrett Crochet has been a breath of fresh air to Red Sox fans and has become the workhorse Ace that we all wanted Chris Sale to be. In his first year in Boston Crochet has shown great stuff, command, velocity and most importantly consistency. Before the 2025 season, the 26-year old had only pitched 1 full, starting season in the MLB and before that only 1 full season in relief.
Crochet would be one of the biggest names heading into Free Agency and would sign a 6 year, $170 Million with the Boston Red Sox to be their new Starting Ace. A questionable move because of his lack of experience and unproveness to stay healthy but Crochet would quickly expel all notions of being undeserving of his contract.
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Top of the League
Today on August 26th we are sitting at Game 133 and Crochet has the most innings pitched in the American League and is .1 innings shy of leading the entire league.
His skill in pitching deep into starts has allowed him 17 Quality starts in his 26 games pitched this season, tied for 2nd in the league with a certain pitcher from Detroit we will get to soon.
In terms of run prevention, Crochet started off the season HOT with a 1.84 ERA after 13 starts. Since June, Crochet has allowed 3 games of 4+ earned runs but has kept his ERA down with a current 2.38 on the season.
A huge part of his run prevention has been his low rate of allowing home runs. Crochet has given up only 15 long balls in his 28 starts, tied for 7th in the AL of all pitchers that have at least 120 IP.
Crochet's best skill this season is not run prevention however and it's not limiting home runs, its his strikeouts. Leading the league from it's start to mid-August, Crochet has only just been passed up in season strikeouts last week. His total of 207 is already 26th in Red Sox history with around 6 starts left on the season. His 11.2 K/9 is also good for 2nd in the league and 2nd in the American League.
Crochet is also tied for 13th in the American League for free passes, having 42 on the season. This statistic is less about his claim as the best pitcher in the pennant but his ability to defy odds this season. In Crochet's acclaimed 2024 that put him on the map, he had a 2.0 BB/9 rate in 146 IP and was questioned whether he could keep it up under a full workload. Crochet has proved that he keeps his command late in the season with a 2.3 BB/9 so far in 2025.
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What are Crochet's Odds?
After putting up all of these wonderful statistics that show not only how dominant Crochet has been to batters but also compared to other pitchers in the AL, one of the most telling is his AL-leading 14 wins and only 5 losses. I'm not a firm believer that Win-Loss is a hugely telling stat when it comes to judging a pitcher's season but CY Young voting certainly prioritizes it.
To recap, Crochet's American League Ranks are:
T-1st in Wins
1st in Innings Pitched
2nd in Strikeouts
2nd in ERA
T-7th in HRs
13th in Walks
3rd in pWAR
Truly cementing his status at elite on the year, it may surprise you to see his odds of winning the award are +100 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Again, 2nd place in voting, Crochet has been in a tight race all season with that pitcher down in Detroit we had previously mentioned, Tarik Skubal.
Tarik Skubal
Skubal has been elite all year and was the pitcher who just recently surpassed Crochet's strikeout total. Skubal's season has been elite as well and one could make an easy argument that the gap between himself and Crochet in Cy Young voting should be wider.
With a 2.28 ERA in 166 IP on the season, Skubal's true dominance has come with his command. You see, Skubal not only leads the league in strikeouts but is 3rd in walk prevention as well with only 25 free passes in 26 starts. Because of this, Skubal's 0.87 WHIP sits firmly atop the league.
Skubal holds a firm grasp over Crochet in almost every statistical race except for innings pitched and Wins. Skubal's team also holds the 1st seed in the AL currently with 78 wins, 6 more than the Red Sox who currently hold the #1 Wild Card spot.
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Projecting the Award
Both players haven't had their best stretch of the season as of late but have still been on fire. In their last 5 starts, Crochet and Skubal look like:
Crochet Skubal
31 IP 32.1 IP
11 ER 11 ER
42 Ks 41 Ks
27 Hs 27 Hs
6 BBs 6 BBs
(3-1) (1-1)
It's as close as it's going to get...
Crochet also has a variable that's helping his case for the best in the league, a narrative. While Skubal's season is straight up nasty, it was expected of him after having his 3rd dominant season in a row and bringing home the 2024 AL Cy Young for the Tigers. Whereas Crochet was NOT expected to be here and most didn't even expect him to be able to pitch enough to be considered for the award. Crochet's inaugural season for the Red Sox as an Ace could have more juice to it than Skubal's back-to-back campaigns.
If this vote comes down to judging the players based on pure skill and performance in the season, I believe Tarik WILL take home his 2nd-staright Cy Young. If emotion gets involved in the decision, don't be surprised if Crochet somehow jumps the Tiger.
We still have over a month of the season left where both of these pitchers will likely see 6 more starts to bolster their stats and teams before the playoffs begin. Will either pitcher have a September that thrusts them past the other for the award? I'm hoping Crochet does man... but we'll have to wait and find out.
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Make sure to stay tuned as we continue coverage of the 2025 Boston Red Sox.
-Z.D.
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