Canelo vs Crawford Preview and Predictions

Zak Drapeau
Sep 10
5 min read

by Zak Drapeau 9/10/2025 Sportz Nation

On Saturday September 13th, the Undisputed Super Middleweight Boxing Championship will be decided in Las Vegas between the reigning champion Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (63-2-2) and the challenger, Undisputed Super Welterweight Champion Terence Crawford (41-0-0).

In what will be the biggest super fight in boxing since Fury vs Usyk, the Alvarez-Crawford match will be the biggest inter-divisional showdown since Crawford did it himself in 2023 when he beat Errol Spence Jr. for the Welterweight crown. Crawford would also move up from Lightweight to Welterweight for his first jump up in 2018 when he beat Jeff Horn for the Welterweight title. As Crawford steps into the ring with Alvarez this Saturday, it will effectively be the 5th division in which he's challenged for a title, from 134 all the way to 168 pounds.

Standing across from him is another one of the best boxers of the 21st century, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez. The man who has had more fights against some of the greatest of all time including Mayweather, Golovkin, Cesar Chavez, Mosley and Cotto is about to face one of the toughest in his career with Terence Crawford. With a 63-2-2 record, Canelo's ONLY losses are to Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol, the latter was his first time Canelo would challenge for the Light Heavyweight title.

Who Are Terence Crawford and Saul Alvarez?

Terence Crawford

The reigning, WBA Super Welterweight Champion Terence Crawford is currently #3 on Ring Magazine's Pound-for-Pound Rankings and is 41-0 in his career.

Born in Omaha, Nebraska, Crawford started boxing at age seven in a neighbor's gym, the C.W. Boxing Club. Crawford would regularly fight on the streets before ever becoming a professional until his debut in 2008 at age 20.

By the end of 2012, Crawford had amassed a 19-0 record and was being touted as the next great Lightweight. A title eliminator with Breidis Prescott was a convincing decision and would lead to his first title fight for the Vacant NABO Lightweight strap with Alejandro Sanabria, a fight Crawford would win in the 6th round.

With a few major defenses in between and jumps from 134 to 140, 140 to 146 and 146 to 154, Crawford sits now as the Undefeated and Super Welterweight Champion of the world. His Super Welterweight championship came from his last fight in August of 2024 when he jumped up from Welterweight to box Israil Madrimov, a contest he won by Unanimous Decision.

"Canelo" Alvarez

The man who has had 28 title fights in his career with a 25-2-1 started with humble beginnings in Guadalajara, Mexico.

Starting his career at the ripe age of 15 in Mexico, Canelo would build a 21-0-1 record by the time he was 18. 1 year later, Canelo would be in his first title fight for the NABF Welterweight title against Luis Antonio Fitch.

Canelo has always been one of the most active and consistent boxers in the world and after securing his first World title in 2011, would defend the title 6 more times in the next two years, bringing his record to 42-0-1 by the fall of 2013. In the same Fall, Canelo would have his biggest fight to date when we would defend his title against Floyd Mayweather in what is still the 7th biggest gate of any Boxing match in history. Canelo would lose the fight decisively, the first loss of his career and the first time he was dominated.

From that point in 2013 until 2022, Canelo would not lose another fight. Drawing 1, in a controversial bout with Triple-G where many thought Canelo lost, he would go on to redeem this draw twice with Golovkin and run a 15-0-1 record in those 9 years. His final loss was in 2022 to Dmitry Bivol when Canelo attempted to move up to 175 pounds where he lost a unanimous decision 115-113. Canelo would shake off the loss and defend his Super Middleweight crown 6 more times leading up to his showdown Saturday night.

How Did We Get Here

The clash between two of the Top-8 Pound For Pound fighters in the world has promised the 3rd highest gate of any boxing match in history at $27.1 Million. The showdown between undefeated Terence Crawford and one of the All-Time Greats Saul Alvarez was never supposed to happen.

For years it has been reasonably understood that Canelo was the #1 Middleweight and Crawford was the #1 Lightweight and eventual Welterweight but that the two would likely never cross paths. Then on May 3rd, it was announced that Crawford would step up to challenge Canelo for September and the world gasped.

Arguably the two biggest names in boxing outside of the Heavyweight division, this fight was made for Crawford's obvious desire to hold his 5th divisional belt but also for the money. As earlier stated, this should be the 5th highest gate for a boxing match in history. In a sold out Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas with somewhere between 65,000 and 71,000 fans, the gate for this incredible showdown is rumored to be $27.1 million. Canelo's rumored guarantee for the fight is $150 million while Crawford's guarantee is a much cooler $100 million, both record paydays for each fighter.

Zak's Predictions

When predicting this fight you have to look first at the recent activity of both fighters. Terence has routinely fought once a year around the Fall for the last 6 years while Canelo fights twice a year, once in May and once in the Fall as well.

In his 6 fights since Bivol, Alvarez has won 6 unanimous decisions all by wide margins including his trilogy fight with Triple-G. On the other hand, Crawford's last fight was very close as he escaped with a 115-113 unanimous decision. This can be attributed to Crawford's jump up to 154 from 147 although may be all too telling for his jump to 167 versus Canelo. Before Madrimov however, Crawford rode an 11-fight knockout streak the likes we haven't seen from a Welterweight since Sugar Ray Robinson

The match is also a clash of styles, with Canelo much more of a slip and dodge fighter with incredible movement that will pepper his opponent with jabs, where Crawford looks to stay in the pocket and overwhelm with strikes. The added pressure of Crawford climbing to a weight most would argue is 20 pounds more than natural for him is also a factor and a weight Canelo has fought 10 times at already in his career.

Not to downplay Crawford's movement though as he is one of the greatest in history especially for his weight but adding near 20 pounds to his in ring frame may make him favor more towards power and see him lose his quickness especially at the end of the fight. In a display that should see him take over in the later rounds of this 12-round fight, I believe Alvarez will be the sharper man at the end and win a very close decision, likely 116-112.

Canelo by DEC

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