Fight Night Evloev vs Murphy Predictions

Sportz Nation Staff
6 minutes ago
7 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 3/20/26

Graphic by UFC via UFC London Official Poster

In our Fight Night Vallejos v Emmett Predictions where you can find here,

Zak went 5-1 in picks with 2 correct methods for a total of 7 points.

Matt also went 5-1 in picks with 2 correct methods for a total of 7 points.

Points to Date:

Zak: 48 (32-12)

Matt: 44 (29-15)

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*All odds are courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook as of 3/19

Lerone Murphy vs

Movsar Evloev

(Evloev -265)

Zak Drapeau -

When's the last time we saw two undefeated fighters duke it out on a fight night? This may be a one-off of undefeated fighters, but to me, it's not an "anything could happen" fight.

Evloev is a Dagestani wrestler turned American Top Team fighter who will wrestle anybody at 145. Murphy is an incredibly skilled kickboxer with legitimate knockout power but has a career takedown defense of 51%. Now, a lot of people are discounting Murphy's own wrestling pedigree, which is very good, and truthfully, if he can keep Evloev off of him for the first round or two, he'll have a great shot to land some blows. Unfortunately, that probably won't be enough, and I believe Evloev will be completely relentless on his way to proving he deserves the next title shot.

Prediction: Evloev by Decision

Matt Hylen -

Man oh man... this might be the toughest fight to predict of the year so far. Two incredible fighters who are stylistically opposite of one another in what is undoubtedly a title eliminator.

Movsar Evloev is a fantastic wrestler who is physically strong and specializes in control. He is your stereotypical wrestler that once he takes his opponent down, they are not getting back up. His pace is ferocious, but his biggest flaw is his finishing ability.

As for Murphy, for an undefeated fighter, it seems he is the underdog in every fight. He is a well-rounded pressure fighter that will back you up and beat you up for as long as it takes. He has great defensive wrestling and is more of a technician than a brawler.

I like this fight for Murphy. I think his ability wherever the fight goes combats Evloev's in every way. He has great takedown defense, with a keen ability to keep his opponent on the back foot. Evloev is elite, but I think Murphy shows the world once again why they should not doubt him.

Prediction: Murphy by TKO/KO

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Luke Riley vs

Michael Aswell

(Riley -260)

Zak Drapeau -

This is a tune-up fight for Luke Riley, who is competing in front of his hometown fans and labeled as the next great British Mixed Martial Artist. Riley is a pure kickboxer and a damn good one at that, with a perfect 12-0 record in MMA. Mike Aswell is a good kickboxer in his own right, coming off a 1st-round knockout in late 2025, but this one is a classic UFC stepping stone fight for a fighter they see as a potential star in the making.

Prediction: Riley by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

Luke Riley is one of the better up-and-comers the UFC has to offer. He has dynamite for hands, with crazy KO ability for his size. His offensive style is very Muay Thai heavy, with the desire to overwhelm his opponent and get a finish.

As for Michael Aswell, he is not the most impressive of fighters. He is basically a low-level scrapper who is not afraid to make the fight a brawl. His boxing is decent, but his résumé is far from special.

This is a stepping stone fight for Riley; he should be able to get this fight over with within a round or two.

Prediction: Riley by TKO/KO

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Michael Page vs

Sam Patterson

(Page -190)

Zak Drapeau -

The winner of this fight will be whoever can control the pace and distance. Both of these men are clinical kickboxers but with two completely different styles; Patterson is looking for the quick knockout and MVP is looking to break you down and win on points.

Patterson is on a four-fight finish streak with two first-round knockouts but has never fought someone of the caliber of Page, who has only fought the best of the best since coming to the UFC. Patterson is also ten years younger than Page and, if the UFC had its way, a future star. This one is a real toss-up for me, but I have to assume Page will stay away, pick his spots, and use his experience over Patterson in a VERY close call.

Prediction: Page by Decision

Matt Hylen -

This fight is likely going to be a chess match.

Starting with Michael Page, his style is unlike anything we have seen in MMA. His hands-down, dynamic karate style makes him one of the hardest puzzles to solve. He is extremely hard to hit due to his insane reflexes, but he is very vulnerable on the ground if you can get him there.

Patterson, on the other hand, is very similar to a fighter like Ian Machado Garry in terms of style. His BJJ is very good, with his secret weapon being his submission ability. He is extremely accurate on the feet, but lacks defense when it matters most.

This could be a stylistic nightmare for MVP. With Patterson being dangerous anywhere the fight goes, I think he will look to get MVP on the ground early and submit him. Page may be able to land that big shot, but he also may never get the chance.

Prediction: Patterson by Submission

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Roman Dolidze vs

Christian Leroy Duncan

(Duncan -480)

Zak Drapeau -

CLD is coming in the Middleweight division, but let's pump the brakes on the whole "Dolidze is washed" stigma. Roman Dolidze got subbed by Anthony Hernandez in his last fight but was on a 3-fight streak before that, and even that was because Hernandez was a wrestler.

Now faced with a younger kickboxer, this will be the last chance for Dolidze to stay among the ranked, and his +360 number is disrespectful. I'm going to go against the grain and take Dolidze. This one might be a 29-28 win for either guy, but I'll take Dolidze just barely.

Prediction: Dolidze by Decision

Matt Hylen -

Another fun fight that I think could be a brawl.

Roman Dolidze is a jack of all trades, master of none kind of fighter. He is decent everywhere the fight goes, but does not excel in any one area. He is more known for his BJJ grappling and volume striking, but has been prone to getting beat up by elite talent.

Christian Leroy Duncan is so fun to watch. He is a really slick striker who can be explosive but also crafty on the feet. His spinning attacks are his biggest weapon, which goes nicely with his unorthodox movement along the octagon.

I honestly do not think this fight will be very close. Dolidze seems to be on the decline, with CLD being on the opposite trajectory. I think Duncan gets it done in flashy fashion.

Prediction: Duncan by TKO/KO

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Nathaniel Wood vs

Losene Keita

(Keita -230)

Zak Drapeau -

This fight should give the winner a number when it's all said and done and features a former OKTAGON champion Losene Keita making his UFC debut. A vicious and technically sound striker who is used to crumpling his opponents until they can't go any more, Keita will get a UFC check early in his first fight against Nathaniel Wood.

Winner of 6 of his last 7 fights that have all gone to decision, Wood is a very well-rounded fighter who can adjust on the fly to be a wrestler or striker. His battle with Keita will depend on this because Keita should bring the violence right away and it will be up to Wood to keep him off of him but I don't think it will happen.

Prediction: Keita by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

Nathaniel Wood is extremely underrated in my eyes. He is a very technical striker who always ends up in scrappy fights. He does get caught a lot on the feet, but can dish it out just as hard, if not harder. On the other hand, Losene Keita is a terrifying striker. His hands are extremely fast but also carry crazy KO power. He can get sloppy at times, but he is definitely an up-and-coming talent.

I view these two guys as evenly matched. Keita's power is always something to note, but Wood's technical style should help to account for that for the most part.

Prediction: Keita by Decision

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Mario Pinto vs

Felipe Franco

(Pinto -900)

Zak Drapeau -

This fight is similar to Luke Riley's as a stepping stone, this time for Mario Pinto. Pinto started his UFC career with 3 straight knockouts and now faces Felipe Franco, who is a natural Light Heavyweight and is 0-1 in the promotion.

This one is pretty straightforward unless Franco can run around the octagon and make the fight go as long as possible, but I have a feeling he'll be seeing stars pretty quickly instead.

Prediction: Pinto by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

I am a big fan of Mario Pinto's game. He is probably the most athletic and well-rounded heavyweight we have seen since Tom Aspinall. He is a very balanced fighter who is durable as well as powerful. Pinto is a finishing machine that is already on a fast track in the division. As for Felipe Franco, he was not good when we saw him on Dana White's Contender Series. His fight IQ is not great, but he does have power in his striking. With all that said, this should be a fight that ends rather quickly.

Prediction: Pinto by TKO/KO

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