Going for Gold: USA vs. Canada Men's Olympic Hockey Preview

Joseph McLaughlin
5 hours ago
5 min read

Joseph McLaughlin

Sportz Nation - 2/21/26

Photo Caption: USA's Matthew Tkachuk (left) fights Canada's Branden Hagel (right) during the 2025 4 Nations Face-off in Montreal, Quebec. Credit: Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images.

And then there were two.

After the past week and a half of action, the 2026 Milan Cortina Winter Olympics' Men's Ice Hockey Tournament enters its final day, and two nations are left standing. For the third time ever, the United States and Canada will meet in the Finals with Olympic Gold on the line.

The previous two Gold Medal matchups have gone Canada's way, with the Canadians winning 5-2 in the 2002 Salt Lake City Finals and 3-2 in overtime during the 2010 Vancouver Finals. It was in 2010 that a 22-year-old Sidney Crosby made history, scoring the 'Golden Goal' for Canada.

That same Sidney Crosby is playing for this version of Team Canada and looks to have another golden moment in the first Olympics, allowing NHL players since 2014. Crosby, however, is only one of 25 players who all share the same desire for Canada: maintain hockey supremacy. Canada's national sport is hockey, and it shows. Canada has won a record nine gold medals in men's ice hockey dating back to the first Winter Olympics in 1920. They are also undefeated in the Olympics thus far, having defeated Switzerland, France, Czechia twice, and most recently Finland, 3-2, in a thrilling comeback win.

On the other side is Canada's archrival: The United States. The Americans have not been as successful as their northern neighbors. Team USA has not been to the Gold Medal game since 2010 in Vancouver, and has only won gold twice; once in 1960 and during the infamous Miracle on Ice in 1980. Since then, the Americans have only won silver at best, but this year's team looks to have what it takes to take home the gold. The Americans are also undefeated this Olympics, defeating Latvia, Denmark, Germany, and Sweden in overtime, and recently Slovakia, 6-2, to make it to the Finals.

The last time these two versions of USA/Canada played one another was during the NHL's 4 Nations Face-Off, where Canada got revenge for a 3-1 defeat in Montreal and won the tournament 3-2 in overtime in Boston. Currently, Canada is favored to win the gold with the puck line set at -1.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook as of writing this.

Tale of the Tape

Photo Caption: USA's Dylan Larkin celebrates with his teammates after scoring against Slovakia during the 2026 Milan Olympics Men's Hockey Semi-Finals on February 20, 2026. Photo Credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images.

Many criticized Team USA during this year's Olympics for starting games sluggishly and underperforming against lower competition. Those critics have been silenced in the past two games as the USA has won back-to-back games against a gold medal contender in Sweden, and blew out a red-hot Slovakian team eager to prove itself.

The semi-final game against Slovakia had a little bit of everything for the United States. The Americans scored on the power play, forced many turnovers, and put on a defensive clinic. Tage Thompson scored the lone power play goal to put the USA ahead 2-0 after the first period. Other skaters, such as Dylan Larkin, scored in the ensuing periods to blow the game open. Larkin scored his second goal in two games, heating up at the right time. Jack Hughes also heated up in Friday's 6-2 win, and the Michigan native scored two goals in the game to help give the Americans a ton of breathing room.

The United States' defense has been sensational in this tournament, allowing only eight goals in all five games it has played in the tournament thus far. None of those goals have been allowed on the power play as the American penalty kill has been perfect through 12 times shorthanded. This is thanks to amazing goaltending by Connor Hellebuyck and defensemen such as Charlie McAvoy and Quinn Hughes. The American defense has been great, but it will need to have its best game ever against a high-octane offense.

Photo Caption: Canada's Nathan McKinnon scored on the power play with 30 seconds remaining in the third period to send Canada to the Finals after defeating Finland 3-2 on February 20, 2026. Photo Credit: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images.

Team USA does have the best penalty kill, but it will not have an easy time against the Canadian power play, the best power play unit in the world. It doesn't matter what defense you have; having to game plan for Nathan McKinnon, who scored the game-winner against Finland on Friday on the power-play, Connor McDavid, and Sidney Crosby is no easy feat.

Crosby, however, did not play during Friday's game against Finland after suffering a lower-body injury sustained during a hit by Czechia defenseman Radko Gudas in the quarter-finals. That meant McKinnon was temporarily promoted to Captain while Crosby was sidelined. The 38-year-old veteran was not absent; however, watching the game closely and giving key pointers to his teammates during intermissions.

What version of Crosby the Canadians will get is still unknown and will likely be a game-time decision. As of right now, sources say there is a good chance Crosby will play Sunday, but nothing has been confirmed. In his stead, Sam Reinhart has completed the trio for the top power play unit and has paid dividends, especially against the Finns, where he scored Canada's first goal of the game in what was the start of a three-goal comeback for the Canadians, the first of its kind in Canadian Olympic history.

Other stars for Canada include veteran Brad Marchand, who constantly puts pressure on opposing goaltenders, Shea Theodore, who has scored multiple goals in the last couple of games, and the young Macklin Celebrini, who has scored five goals in this year's Olympics, the most out of any player in the men's tournament. In net, the Canadians will likely put in Jordan Binnington as their goaltender, who has played a key role in Canada, allowing only eight goals in five games played.

Who Wins?

This is tough to pick as I expected it to be. You can simulate this game a million times, and each team would win half the matchups. Yet, which one will we see on Sunday? I think Crosby's status for this game makes the difference in my mind. If he plays, Canada looks to be too formidable for the USA, but without him, all of a sudden, that Canadian power play looks a little less scary.

Only a little.

That said, I think the USA's defense being as stout as it is will give Canada a hard time throughout the game, and I see this being another matchup where 60 minutes will not be enough to decide the winner. I am going to say that the USA wins dramatically in overtime after a breakaway chance by Auston Matthews. America will defeat its rival and place American hockey back on the map, securing its first Olympic Gold Medal since 1980. Perhaps this will be another miraculous win, but Sunday's game will have the answer to that.

Puck drop will be at 8:10 a.m. EST (2:10 p.m. in Milan) on NBC, USA, and Peacock.