Grading EVERY Lottery Pick From the 2022 NBA Draft

Joel Piton
6 minutes ago
14 min read

The 2022 NBA Draft is loaded with star power.

Headlined by 6'10" Duke phenom Paolo Banchero, this particular class entered the league with plenty of hype surrounding its top prospects. Chet Holmgren looked like one of the most unique big-man prospects basketball had seen in years, Jabari Smith Jr. put Auburn on the map, and names like Jaden Ivey and Shaedon Sharpe gave the lottery plenty of intrigue beyond the top three. Four years later, we're starting to get a pretty good idea of what this class can do—and it may just live up to the hype.

Some members have already blossomed into franchise players. Others still leave us wondering what could have been. With enough NBA basketball under their belts to finally judge them fairly, it’s time to go back and grade EVERY lottery pick from the 2022 NBA Draft.

Paolo Banchero (ORL)
A

2025-26 Stats: 22.2 PPG · 8.4 RPG · 5.2 APG · 45.9% FG

When you have the No. 1 overall pick, you're looking for a franchise player, and Paolo Banchero has been exactly that. At 6'10" and 250 pounds, Banchero possesses a ridiculous combination of size, strength, athleticism and shot creation, capable of bullying smaller defenders inside before pulling up from the midrange or creating his own look from deep. He's already an All-Star, a proven playoff performer and unquestionably the face of the Orlando Magic.

Still, something feels like it's missing. For as gifted of a scorer as Banchero is, the efficiency hasn't completely caught up with the talent. His three-point shot remains inconsistent, and Orlando has yet to make the type of postseason run that would truly cement him among the NBA's upper-echelon superstars. None of that makes Banchero anything less than a home run at No. 1—it just keeps him a step below an A+.

He's everything Orlando could've reasonably hoped for. Now we're waiting to see if he can become even more.

Chet Holmgren (OKC)
A+

2025-26 Stats: 17.1 PPG · 8.9 RPG · 1.7 APG · 55.7% FG

Chet Holmgren's NBA career couldn't have gotten off to a worse start. After being selected second overall, the 7'1" big man missed his entire rookie season due to a foot injury, immediately raising questions about whether his slender frame would be able to withstand the physicality of the NBA. He's answered those questions about as emphatically as possible. Holmgren returned the following year and started all 82 games for a playoff-bound Thunder team, establishing himself as one of the NBA's premier young shot blockers while also providing legitimate floor spacing from the center position. Injuries limited him to just 32 games the following season, but Holmgren returned in time for the postseason and played an essential role as Oklahoma City captured an NBA championship.

Holmgren followed the title run by earning his first All-Star selection while also being named to the All-NBA Third Team and All-Defensive First Team. He's become exactly what Oklahoma City envisioned when they selected him second overall: an elite rim protector, a floor-spacing seven-footer and a player whose skill set fits seamlessly alongside other stars. Missing his entire first season once made Holmgren's future feel uncertain—scary even. Four years later, he's an NBA champion, an All-Star and one of the best two-way big men in basketball. That's an A+.

Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU)
B

2025-26 Stats: 15.8 PPG · 6.9 RPG · 1.9 APG · 45.0% FG

If you're looking for the flashiest player in the draft, Jabari Smith Jr. probably isn't going to be your guy. Selected third overall, Smith has watched several players drafted behind him develop into bigger roles, and four years into his career, he's yet to make that same kind of leap. But that doesn't mean Houston should be disappointed with what it's gotten. At 6'11", Smith has developed into a dependable stretch forward who can knock down shots from the perimeter, rebound at a solid level and complement higher-usage scorers. Even while sharing the floor with superstars, Smith still manages 16 points and 7 rebounds per game this past season.

The strange thing about Smith is how quietly he's done it. You rarely hear his name brought up when discussing the NBA's best young players, and he hasn't accumulated the accolades you'd normally hope to see from a former No. 3 pick. He isn't a franchise player, nor has he proven to be one of the best players from his own draft class. But he's a legitimate, above average starting NBA forward with size, shooting and versatility who has gotten better with time. For the third overall pick, you'd certainly hope for more, but Smith has been far too productive to call a disappointment.

Keegan Murray (SAC)
B-

2025-26 Stats: 14.0 PPG · 5.7 RPG · 1.7 APG · 42.0% FG

Keegan Murray looked like he was going to fly much higher than this. As a rookie, Murray immediately established himself as one of the NBA's premier snipers, knocking down a rookie-record 206 three-pointers while shooting better than 41 percent from beyond the arc. And he wasn't simply a shooter, either. Murray showed enough size, defensive versatility and off-ball awareness to look like the perfect modern forward for a Sacramento team that appeared to be on the rise. The problem is that the rise never really continued. Rather than developing into another legitimate star, Murray has largely plateaued. His scoring has remained relatively steady, his creation hasn't taken the leap you might've hoped for from a former No. 4 overall pick, and as the Kings have slipped further away from contention, he hasn't been able to fill the gaps necessary to keep them afloat.

After shooting 41 percent from three as a rookie, Murray connected on just 27.7 percent of his attempts last season. Injuries certainly deserve some of the blame, as he was limited to only 23 games, so we won't treat that percentage as definitive. And after all, Murray is still a useful two-way forward with size, shooting pedigree and a clear place in an NBA rotation. But considering how promising his rookie campaign was, it's fair to wonder whether we've already seen his ceiling.

Jaden Ivey
C

2025-26 Stats: 8.5 PPG · 2.5 RPG · 1.8 APG · 44.5% FG

There was a time when Jaden Ivey looked like one of the safest bets from this entire lottery. Thrown into the fire immediately after Cade Cunningham's season-ending injury, Ivey averaged 16.3 points per game as a rookie while starting 73 games for Detroit. His explosiveness, downhill speed and ability to create offense gave Pistons fans something to watch during an otherwise miserable season, and he followed it up by remaining an important piece of their rotation in year two. Then, just as Ivey appeared to be taking another step forward, injuries completely disrupted his trajectory.

Ivey was averaging a career-high 17.6 points while shooting better than 40 percent from three through 30 games in 2024-25 before suffering a broken left fibula that ended his season. He underwent another procedure on his right knee before the following campaign and never quite regained the role—or explosiveness—that made him such an intriguing young guard. By February 2026, Detroit had moved on, sending Ivey to Chicago. His Bulls tenure lasted just four games before more knee trouble shut him down, and an already strange season ended with Chicago waiving him for conduct detrimental to the team following controversial comments on social media. Now, the former No. 5 overall pick finds himself without an NBA team and with a considerably more uncertain future than anyone would've expected a few years ago. He's tough to grade right now. We know what he's capable of, but the future looks uncertain.

Bennedict Mathurin (NOP)
B

2025-26 Stats: 17.6 PPG · 5.4 RPG · 2.4 APG · 43.0% FG

Getting a capable scorer with the sixth overall pick should probably be expected.

Somehow, Bennedict Mathurin still feels like he's exceeded those expectations.

From the moment he entered the league, Mathurin has been a microwave scorer capable of changing a game in a matter of possessions. Whether starting or coming off the bench, the Canadian guard-forward has consistently hovered around 16 points per game for his career, attacking the rim aggressively, getting to the free-throw line and providing instant offense whenever his team needs it.

More importantly, we've seen it translate when the stakes are highest. Mathurin played a legitimate role during Indiana's run to the 2025 NBA Finals, including a 27-point explosion off the bench in Game 3 against Oklahoma City. His Pacers tenure ultimately ended midway through last season when Indiana traded him to the Clippers, but Mathurin continued doing what he's always done: score. He finished the season averaging a career-best 17.6 points per game before signing with New Orleans in free agency. Mathurin hasn't developed into an All-Star, and questions remain about how much he actually contributes when his shot isn't falling. But four years after being selected sixth overall, there's no questioning whether or not Mathurin belongs.

Shaedon Sharpe (POR)
B+

2025-26 Stats: 20.8 PPG · 4.3 RPG · 2.6 APG · 45.2% FG

Few players from the 2022 NBA Draft are as entertaining as Shaedon Sharpe.

An electrifying athlete with seemingly unlimited bounce, Sharpe can turn any trip down the floor into a highlight. He'll posterize your favorite defender one possession, rise into a smooth midrange jumper the next and, when he gets rolling, completely take over stretches of a game. Sharpe enjoyed the best season of his young career in 2025-26, averaging 20.8 points per game as Portland's secondary scorer behind Deni Avdija. For a player who entered the NBA as one of the biggest mysteries in his draft class after passing up college, developing into a legitimate 20-point scorer by age 22 is an impressive return on the seventh overall pick.

There's still another level for him to reach. His three-point shooting remains inconsistent and injuries have made it difficult for him to string together complete seasons. Sharpe recently suffered a torn lateral meniscus in his right knee during an offseason workout and underwent surgery, with Portland announcing that he'll be reevaluated in six months. It's a brutal setback for a player who appeared to be entering the most important stage of his development. Here's hoping Sharpe makes a full recovery, because when healthy, there aren't many young guards in basketball more exciting to watch.

Dyson Daniels (ATL)
A-

2025-26 Stats: 11.9 PPG · 6.8 RPG · 5.9 APG · 51.7% FG

The Great Barrier Thief might be one of the best development stories in draft memory.

Daniels spent his first two seasons in New Orleans primarily as a defensive-minded reserve, being able to guard multiple positions but never establishing himself as anything close to a star. Then he arrived in Atlanta and completely transformed his career. Daniels went from a versatile defender to one of the most disruptive defensive players in basketball. Relentless at the point of attack and equally dangerous lurking in passing lanes, he averaged an absurd 3.0 steals per game in 2024-25, led the NBA with 229 total steals and 443 deflections and quickly earned one of the best nicknames in basketball.

Daniels won Most Improved Player, earned All-Defensive First Team honors and finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting. One year later, he earned another All-Defensive selection while increasing his playmaking responsibilities to nearly six assists per game. There's one thing that continues to hold Dyson back: the jumper remains a serious concern. Daniels shot just 18.8 percent from three last season, and until defenses are forced to consistently respect him outside the paint, there's going to be a ceiling on what he can provide offensively. But let's remember where he was drafted. Getting an All-Defensive caliber starter, Most Improved Player winner and perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate with the eighth overall pick is tremendous value.

Jeremy Sochan (POR)
C

2025-26 Stats: 3.6 PPG · 2.4 RPG · .9 APG · 49.6% FG

For a period, Jeremy Sochan looked like he was going to become one of San Antonio's long-term building blocks. Before Wemby arrived, the 6'8" forward immediately carved out a role with his versatility. Sochan could defend multiple positions, attack the basket, rebound and occasionally knock down an open three. He earned All-Rookie Second Team honors after averaging 11 points, then became the Spurs' starting power forward alongside Wembanyama during his sophomore season. And despite San Antonio winning just 22 games that year, Sochan remained one of its most intriguing young pieces. His third season even brought signs of offensive improvement. Sochan shot a career-best 53.5 percent from the field while averaging 11.4 points and 6.5 rebounds.

His perimeter shooting remained a glaring weakness—and defenses were more than willing to exploit his unconventional jumper—but there was still enough defensive versatility to envision him as a useful piece of San Antonio's future. Then his role disappeared almost overnight. As the Spurs continued constructing a more competitive roster around Wembanyama, Sochan fell out of the rotation. He averaged just 4.1 points in 28 games for San Antonio last season before eventually landing with the Knicks, where his role shrunk even further. Sochan averaged only 2.8 points in fewer than seven minutes per game in New York, although his tenure did culminate with an NBA championship. Now, Sochan gets another opportunity after signing with Portland. But four years after San Antonio selected him ninth overall, the team that drafted him has already moved on, his offensive limitations remain significant and his career is searching for a second wind.

Johnny Davis
F

Career Stats: 3.5 PPG · 1.6 RPG · .6 APG · 39.7% FG

Not much needs to be said here. Johnny Davis was a pure bucket at Wisconsin, establishing himself as one of the best guards in college basketball before Washington selected him 10th overall. Unfortunately, virtually none of that scoring ability translated to the NBA. Davis struggled to earn consistent minutes from the moment he entered the league. Even on a Wizards team that won just 15 games during his sophomore season, he remained buried in the rotation, averaging only 12 minutes per game. And when he did get playing time, the production simply wasn't there.

Across 112 NBA games, Davis averaged just 3.5 points while shooting below 40 percent from the field and 28 percent from three. For a lottery pick drafted largely because of his ability to put the ball in the basket, those numbers are brutal.

Washington eventually moved on, and after spending time in the G League, Davis has taken his career overseas to Turkey. Maybe he'll eventually work his way back to the NBA. At just 24 years old, his overall basketball career is likely far from over.

Ousmane Dieng (MIL)
C-

2025-26 Stats: 7.6 PPG · 3.2 RPG · 2.4 APG · 42.2% FG

At 6'10", lanky and seemingly overflowing with offensive potential, Ousmane Dieng entered the NBA as another intriguing prospect in the growing wave of young French talent. Unfortunately, Oklahoma City never really figured out what to do with him.

Dieng spent three-and-a-half seasons buried on one of the deepest rosters in basketball, averaging roughly 11 minutes per game and never becoming a consistent member of the rotation. The Thunder already had an abundance of versatile forwards and as players continued developing around him, Dieng increasingly became the odd man out. His numbers weren't disastrous. They were just...barely there. Dieng averaged around four points per game during his time in Oklahoma City and was virtually invisible during the Thunder's championship run. For the 11th overall pick, it simply wasn't enough.

Then came one of the strangest trade deadlines imaginable. Dieng was sent from Oklahoma City to Charlotte, rerouted to Chicago and eventually landed in Milwaukee, all within roughly 48 hours. And after years of waiting for an opportunity, he finally got one. In 30 games with the Bucks, including 20 starts, Dieng averaged 11.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists in nearly 27 minutes per game. He finally had the freedom to handle the ball, create for teammates and show flashes of the game that made him such an intriguing prospect four years earlier. Now comes the question: was any of it real? Milwaukee was a struggling team desperately searching for players who could contribute, so it's fair to wonder whether Dieng's production was simply the result of increased minutes on a bad roster. But the Bucks saw enough to bring him back, and at just 23 years old, Dieng suddenly has another legitimate opportunity to establish himself as an NBA rotation player..

Jalen Williams (OKC)
A+

2025-26 Stats: 17.1 PPG · 4.6 RPG · 5.5 APG · 48.4% FG

If there's a true diamond in the rough from the 2022 NBA Draft, it's Jalen Williams.

The 12th overall pick—acquired years earlier as part of the Paul George trade—wasn't supposed to become this good this quickly. Williams entered the league as an intriguing, long-armed wing out of Santa Clara with plenty of untapped potential. Four years later, he's essentially become Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's running mate on one of basketball's premier teams. And calling him simply a sidekick is underselling things.

J-Dub has developed into one of the NBA's best two-way wings, capable of guarding across multiple positions while also creating his own offense at an All-Star level. During Oklahoma City's championship season, Williams averaged 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists, earning his first All-Star selection along with All-NBA Third Team and All-Defensive Second Team honors.

Then he proved it on the biggest stage imaginable. Williams averaged more than 23 points per game during the NBA Finals, including a 40-point explosion in Game 5, helping Oklahoma City capture its first championship of the Thunder era. A player selected outside the top 10 had developed into a legitimate second option on a title team. Unfortunately, his encore season never really got off the ground. Wrist problems delayed his start to the year before a troublesome hamstring contributed to Williams appearing in just 33 regular-season games. For the first time in his career, availability became a serious obstacle. Fans will be hoping a healthy J-Dub returns this season because when he's on the floor, we've already seen just how special he can be.

Jalen Duren
A

2025-26 Stats: 19.5 PPG · 10.5 RPG · 2.0 APG · 65.0% FG

Coming out of Memphis, Jalen Duren looked like another athletic rim-running center.

Four years later, he's become so much more than that. Selected 13th overall, Duren entered the NBA with an obvious calling card: strength, explosiveness and the ability to play above the rim. But as his career has progressed, nearly every part of his offensive game has developed with him. His touch around the basket has improved, he's become more comfortable putting the ball on the floor, his passing has taken steps forward and he's evolved into one of basketball's most dominant rebounders. And yes, the athleticism is still there. Duren can glide toward the rim as if he has springs built into his legs, punish defenses as a lob threat and overpower smaller defenders inside.

He's not the modern face-up center who's going to launch six threes every night, but he doesn't need to be. Duren has mastered the traditional big-man while gradually adding enough skill to become much more than simply a rim-runner. The production speaks for itself. Duren has averaged a double-double in three consecutive seasons while shooting better than 63 percent from the field for his career. Last season he erupted for 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game, helped Detroit finish atop the Eastern Conference and earned his first All-Star selection along with All-NBA Third Team honors. Think about the value there. Detroit used the 13th pick on an 18-year-old center with mysterious upside. Four years later, he's an All-NBA big man who still hasn't turned 23. That's an A+ in my book.

Ochai Agbaji
C-

2025-26 Stats: 5.1 PPG · 2.3 RPG · .8 APG · 43.6% FG

Coming out of Kansas, Ochai Agbaji looked like one of the safer prospects in the 2022 NBA Draft. The 6'5" wing was experienced, athletic and coming off a national championship run in which he established himself as one of college basketball's premier players. With his explosiveness in transition, willingness to attack the rim and potential as a spot-up shooter, Agbaji looked like someone who could quickly carve out a meaningful NBA role.

Four years later, his role has never really materialized.

Agbaji has bounced between Utah, Toronto and Brooklyn while averaging just over seven points per game for his career. He's still capable of bringing energy off the bench, running the floor and throwing down a highlight dunk, but he's never developed into the reliable scorer or high-level two-way wing you'd hope to find with a lottery selection. At 26 years old, Agbaji can still help an NBA team. He's athletic, plays with aggression and can be a useful reserve wing when his shot is falling.

But that's a considerably lower ceiling than what was envisioned for him.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Four years later, the 2022 NBA Draft has given us everything from All-Stars and champions to reclamation projects and outright misses.

But how did I do?

Were these grades fair, or did I completely miss the mark on somebody? And which player from this class do you think has the best chance of changing their grade over the next few seasons?

Let me know what you'd change—and what grades you'd give the 2022 lottery class yourself.

Get ready hoops fans, we're just five weeks away from seeing NBA basketball again 🚨 Haven't kept up with the latest buzz this summer? Be sure to stay tuned into Sportz Nation for your sports updates on all things basketball.

Thanks for reading!

-Joel Piton

(@jpiton7)