Grading EVERY Lottery Pick From the 2023 NBA Draft
- Joel Piton
- 2 days ago
- 10 min read
Another day, another draft retrospective. We now have three years of retrospective on the 2023 NBA Draft, giving us enough time to move beyond projections, scouting reports and begin evaluating whether or not each lottery pick has lived up to the hype.
This class entered the league with enormous expectations, headlined by Victor Wembanyama, quite possibly the most anticipate prospects in basketball history. Behind him came an wide array of future stars, athletic experiments and polarizing talents.
Some have already emerged as a franchise player, others are beginning to find their footing, and a few have left their teams wondering what prompted them to make this decision. Three seasons still aren't enough to write a concrete conclusion on any young player’s career since development is rarely linear. But we now have a meaningful body of work to judge each selection. Here are our grades for every lottery pick from the 2023 NBA Draft.
Victor Wembanyama (SAS)
A+
2025-26 Stats: 25.0 PPG · 11.5 RPG · 3.1 BPG · 51.2% FG
It's impossible to overstate just how quickly Wemby shattered the ceiling of what should be possible for a number one pick. Arguably the greatest basketball prospect of his generation, Wemby took the Spurs from a 22 win team in 2023 to Conference Champions in 2026. An A+ grading here is definitive. The guy was named to All-Defensive First Team as a rookie (the second player in history to do this after Tim Duncan), has led the league in blocks every year since he entered, was named Defensive Player of the Year as a 22 year old unanimously, and still hasn't even scratched the surface of his full potential. The limitless range, the ball-handling, the length, we could be witnessing the best to ever do it.
Brandon Miller (CHA)
A-
2025-26 Stats: 20.2 PPG · 4.9 RPG · 3.3 APG · 43.5% FG
Despite having a relatively quite career, I'm actually quite excited for Brandon Miller's future. With LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges gone, Miller could be the definitive franchise player for the foreseeable future next Kon Knueppel, and the tape has been promising. Miller was drafted to be a dynamic wing scorer and he delivered pretty much immediately. This past season Miller knocked down a career high 38% of his three pointers and was automatic at the free throw line, shooting 89 percent. Injuries have been the biggest derailer here, cutting a promising sophomore campaign short to just 27 games. His bounce back this season proved he's here to stay, and injuries won't slow his momentum.
Scoot Henderson (POR)
D+
2025-26 Stats: 14.2 PPG · 2.7 RPG · 3.7 APG · 41.8% FG
This may seem harsh but given the wake of the Ja Morant trade, it's hard to see just what role Scoot Henderson plays on the Portland team. Drafting a point guard at three implies you're handing him the keys to the franchise. Instead, Portland has built the most chaotic backcourt logjam in the entire league, even if it wasn't entirely planned. Even before today's blockbuster move, Scoot was already battling for minutes behind veteran Jrue Holiday, and this was with Damian Lillard entirely sidelined. Without a doubt, Scoot still posses the elite athleticism to make your jaw hang, and despite playing just thirty games this season, he looked promising. Still, it's hard to confidently rank him any higher.
Amen Thompson (HOU)
A
2025-26 Stats: 18.3 PPG · 7.8 RPG · 5.3 APG · 53.4% FG
A freakish athlete with insane potential, I'm convinced that Amen is the best prospect drafted by the Houston Rockets since 2002. Amen entered the league as a pure slasher, but his translation into an an elite NBA defender also happened remarkably fast. By just his second season, he was named to the All-NBA First Team and finished 5th in DPOY voting. A 6'7" wing with the ability to play way above the rim, he's the premier prototype of a modern NBA wing, a switchable terror capable of blowing up your best offensive scheme or posterizing the oppositions best defender. The only slight to his game? His shooting. Thompson is this close to unlocking a whole new world of dominance to his game—he just needs to be able to shoot from the perimeter consistently.
Ausar Thompson (DET)
A-
2025-26 Stats: 9.9 PPG · 5.7 RPG · 3.1 APG · 52.5% FG
Ausar Thompson is a key piece of the puzzle that has turned the Detroit Pistons from a lottery team to having the best record in the Eastern Conference. The offensive game remains a work in progress, but the defense? It's been NBA ready from day one, much like his brother. A "new age Bad Boy", Thompson has already solidified himself as one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. He was named to the NBA's All-Defensive First Team this season and simultaneously led the NBA in steals. Thompson doesn't just take the toughest defensive matchup, he asks for it. He's lead the Pistons in stocks every year since his drafting and his defensive gravity is just so high that he hasn't needed to prioritize offense. He thrives on hustle play, easy lays and rim pressure over shooting, helping the team win in ways that don't show in the box score.
Anthony Black (ORL)
B
2025-26 Stats: 15.0 PPG · 3.8 RPG · 3.7 APG · 44.7% FG
Black getting taken so high was at the time a huge question mark. At 6'7" scouts were drawn in by the size and fluidity at the point guard position, but a dangerously quiet rookie year led to concerns (4 points per game). I however, noticed a large jump in productivity between Black's rookie and sophomore campaigns. Black averaged just 17 minutes per game in his rookie year in comparison to his 24 minutes the following year, and then thirty minutes this past season. It clear that with more opportunity you get more output from Black, who averaged a career high 15 points a night and looked more dangerous and efficient than Orlando's full time starter Jalen Suggs. He was also a menace on the defensive end and had superb disruption numbers for a perimeter player. I think if the Magic prioritize his development, sixth could end up being a perfect spot.
Bilal Coulibaly (WAS)
B-
2025-26 Stats: 11.7 PPG · 4.3 RPG · 2.6 APG · 42.5% FG
A B- feels more than appropriate. Bilal just might be the most versatile prospect in the 2023 NBA Draft. He's already one of the most disruptive young defenders in the East, and it's scary imagining what Washington's defense would look like without him. At 6'7" with incredible length, Coulibaly came out of France billed as an athletic, high motor 3-and-D guard, but the Wizards have utilized him as a forward capable of guarding positions 1-5. The kid can switch seamlessly across multiple positions, contest shots and rebound. Now for the offense. Questionable, but he hasn't necessarily needed to score. The Wizards have guys who can stretch the floor so Coulibaly averaging 12 points per game is about what you'd want from him, but the efficiency just isn't there, even from inside the three-point line.
Jarace Walker (IND)
C
2025-26 Stats: 11.6 PPG · 5.1 RPG · 2.5 APG · 41.9% FG
This is a bit of a slow burn. When Walker was drafted out of Houston, he was billed as a defensive chess piece ready to turn any franchise into a winning team. Initially hailed a Top 3 prospect, Walker was a shoe-in to be a rising star. Instead, under Rick Carlisle he played just 33 games his rookie season and averaged three points. A bit of a red flag, but the kid is 19 years old, what can you do. Unfortunately, the saga continued a bit longer, and Walker found himself buried on the bench behind veterans during the Pacers NBA Finals run, averaging 6 points in his second season. Walker finally cracked full rotation minutes in his third season with Myles Turner gone. Walker stepped into the void and put up 11 points per night, but the efficiency is still left to be desired. Right now, he projects more as a solid 8th or 9th man in a rotation.
Taylor Hendricks (MEM)
D
2025-26 Stats: 7.4 PPG · 3.7 RPG · .9 APG · 45.9% FG
This is a tough but unfortunate reality. However, unlike some of his peers who simply failed to develop, Hendricks trajectory has been mainly derailed by injuries. After a rookie year where he showcased some decent 3-and-D potential, tragedy struck and his season to just 40 games. He then suffered a horrific injury in just the third game of his sophomore season, sidelining him for the entire year. He returned in year three to average just 4 points on okay efficiency and the Jazz decided they couldn't afford to wait on his development, ultimately flipping him for a guy who is fully battle tested in Jaren Jackson. Being traded before your rookie contract is up is rarely a good sign. He managed a solid 10 points on a decrepit Memphis Grizzlies team, but to make matters worse even that season was cut short due to a thumb injury. The D grade isn't an indictment of his talent—just the reality of his output.
Cason Wallace (OKC)
A
2025-26 Stats: 8.6 PPG · 3.1 RPG · 2.6 APG · 43.2% FG
I'm fully comfortable with this ranking. The Thunder got the biggest bang for their buck at the 10th spot and virtually drafted the perfect candidate for their team and style of basketball. The OKC had to trade upwards to snag him, and there were questions about how another guard would fit into a stacked rotation, even before Caruso touched down. Three years later? This selection was elite. Caso entered the league as an immediate lockdown nightmare and played all 82 games as a rookie. His defense then preceded to take an even bigger jump the following season as he anchored the best defense in the league (alongside the likes of Chet Holmgren and Lu Dort) to an NBA championship. This season, he helped the Thunder secure a league best 64-18 record and was named his first All-Defensive team himself.
Jett Howard (ORL)
D-
2025-26 Stats: 5.5 PPG · 1.6 RPG · .8 APG · 41.8% FG
Despite being drafted 11th with high upside, Howard has struggled to make any reliable impact for the Magic even through their lows. Throughout his first three seasons, his production has remained largely limited and it's starting to feel as though that big jump isn't coming. He's spent significant time in the G-League and hasn't really secured meaningful minutes in the NBA. Analysts have noticed that he doesn't really defend at a high level either and that makes it difficult for a coach to want to keep him on the floor. He's shown flashes of being a pure sharpshooter, putting on a thirty point explosion against the Boston Celtics early in the beginning of the season, but it wasn't really followed up with anything major.
Dereck Lively II (DAL)
B-
2025-26 Stats: 4.3 PPG · 5.3 RPG · 1.9 APG · 61.1% FG
Dereck Lively II was projected to be Anthony Davis lite and even looked like him at times, but a frustrating injury history has squandered every single season he's played and his development continues to be squandered. The guy looked like an absolute steal at 12, looking like an elite glass cleaner and pushing the Mavs to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2011. He finished with a historic 74% field goal percentage and the potential looked sky high. Unfortunately, the old sports adage rings true here: the best ability is availability. Lively's medical chart is the only thing dragging his grade down. A right ankle stress fracture limited his sophomore season to just 36 games, and this past season with the team up in smoke and Cooper Flagg needing him most, Lively sustained yet another right foot injury, limiting him to just 7 games on the worst production of his career. I can't give a higher grade to a guy who has missed 60% of his career games by age 22.
Gradey Dick (TOR)
C
2025-26 Stats: 6.0 PPG · 1.9 RPG · .7 APG · 41.9% FG
Gradey Dick looked like the poster child for scoring potential but has pretty much flatlined after a major third-year regression. He had a fairly quiet rookie year but took a massive leap in year two, averaging 14 points a night while looking like the shooting guard for the foreseeable future. Fast forward to now, and a backslide hit him like a freight train. His production completely fell of a cliff, making him one of the more disappointing third-year players in the league. Gradey plummeted to just 6.0 points per night, career lows far worse than his rookie season. A large chunk of his decline comes from him wedged behind the teams depth chart and being forced to conform to being a bench player behind RJ Barrett. Even still, he played essentially zero meaningful minutes in Toronto's crucial seven game series against the Cavs which leads me to believe the Raptors aren't even really prioritizing his growth at all anymore.
Jordan Hawkins (NOP)
D+
2025-26 Stats: 5.1 PPG · 1.7 RPG · .8 APG · 36.6% FG
No. 14 seemed like a good spot at the time for the former NCAA champion, but it's starting to feel like Hawkins is a case of when a one-dimensional player can no longer excel in his one dimension. The Pelicans envisioned a plug-and-play shooter, and for a while, Hawkins was exactly that. After a shaky rookie season, Hawkins saw meaningful minutes off the bench and put up around 11 points a night. The efficiency was never really there, but Hawkins showed flashes of being the scorer New Orleans needed him to be. Unfortunately, this past season was a slow fade into obscurity for Jordan. His production was essentially sliced in half and he dropped to a career-low 5 points per night on the worst shooting splits of his career. For a player who's identity revolves around shooting, 36% from the field is abysmal and it becomes nearly impossible to stay on the floor. If he can't find reputable consistency soon, his future is murky.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
And there you have it. Which teams would desperately like a do-over? While it may be early, three seasons have given us a much clearer picture of who is trending upwards toward stardom, who still has something to prove, and which selections already look difficult to defend. As always, these grades are not permanent, but based on everything we have seen so far, this is where we think every pick stands.
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Thanks for reading!
-Joel Piton
(@jpiton7)