Matchmaking After UFC 324
- Sportz Nation Staff
- 7 hours ago
- 12 min read
Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria
Lightweight Championship
Zak Drapeau
I still believe we will see Makhachev vs. Topuria, but now that Gaethje is the interim champ, this fight should probably happen first. This also has Fight of the Night and Knockout of the Night written all over it as the probable heaviest and most technical strikers of the division square off.
Who knows what Topuria's future holds and how his style, skill, and prowess could be affected by his controversial layoff. What we do know is if he comes back at the same level he was operating at before this recent period of his life, he is perhaps the most dangerous man in the world pound-for-pound. Gaethje displayed some great technical striking and game plan against Paddy last week, but let's not forget the difference between him and Topuria.
While this fight is mouth-watering for fans in anticipation of the fireworks we're likely to see, I feel confident in saying Topuria would get another knockout probably before the championship rounds, and likely retires Gaethje in the way that the Highlight Reel deserves.
Prediction: Topuria over Gaethje
by KO/TKO
Matt Hylen
There really is only one fight to make for Justin Gaethje, which is Ilia Topuria. With the interim belt around his waist, Gaethje has made himself the inevitable next contender in what is a stacked lightweight division.
Was his performance perfect? No, he was far too rushed and wild with his shots. Yet, he still landed the big power punches when he needed to and got the job done against a very good opponent.
This could also be Gaethje's final fight as well, so putting this possibly on the White House card would not only align with Topuria's return timeline, but also create a very unique send-off for an American who has done amazing things for the sport.
In terms of who I'd predict, I feel this has another 1st round KO written all over it for Topuria. We saw Gaethje get wobbled more than a few times against Pimblett and knocked out cold against Max Holloway. Match him up against a guy who may have more power and accuracy than both of those two combined, and Gaethje may be in major trouble.
Give me Topuria by TKO/KO in this potential matchup.
Paddy Pimblett vs WINNER of
Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint Denis
Zak Drapeau
Paddy got his first loss in the UFC in his toughest competition he's ever faced and looked admirable in defeat, even if the fight was never truly in doubt for Gaethje. Since he showed he can handle a tough brawl in a Main Event fight, I think he should get another Top-5 opponent, and I believe the winner of Hooker/Saint Denis next week will earn that ranking.
Not only would this make sense from a ranking standpoint, but the fight would be terrific... ESPECIALLY if Dan Hooker wins. To be honest, that's where my heart lies, even if I actually believe Saint Denis will win the fight. Saint Denis is more powerful and has a better grappling strategy for his fights that should stop the momentum-driven Hooker.
With my assumed matchup of Saint Denis vs. Pimblett happening sometime in the summer, I think this fight is extremely winnable for Paddy. Pimblett's ground game is respectable enough that I don't think Benoit will have any advantage, and the striking game is favorable to the Brit as well, who is a much more technical striker compared to Saint Denis' brawl-heavy tendency.
Prediction: Saint Denis over Hooker
by Submission
Pimblett over Saint Denis
by Decision
Matt Hylen
This makes all the sense in the world to me. Whoever wins in the fight between Hooker and Saint Denis would likely look for a top-5 opponent next. Plus, with matchmakers probably giving Paddy Pimblett a step down, this would be the most probable option.
Though it ended up in a loss, we did see a version of Paddy Pimblett that can stand and bang on the feet with some of the best in the division. Sure, Gaethje is not what he used to be, but the fact Pimblett stayed on his feet and survived five full rounds is a testament to his toughness and durability. Given a few months off to heal and prep, I think Paddy could absolutely compete with a striker in Hooker or a guy who likes to mix things up in Saint Denis.
Plus, whether it be Hooker or Saint Denis, a fight against Paddy would be VERY fun. Hooker and Pimblett have some bad blood between each other too, which is something to look out for.
Give me Saint Denis to beat Hooker in a barn burner, but Pimblett to defeat Saint Denis by submission.
Sean O'Malley vs
Umar Nurmagomedov
Bantamweight Title Eliminator
Zak Drapeau
I could have seen either O'Malley or Yadong win last weekend even though I wasn't truly impressed by either fighter. Nonetheless, O'Malley secured his first win in over a year and a half and is back in the title hunt again.
While a hypothetical rematch with Petr Yan for the belt makes a lot of sense for the UFC from a marketing standpoint, we've decided that Merab deserves his rematch more. Plus, with Umar Nurmagomedov dominantly winning on the same card last weekend, a #1 contender fight makes a lot of sense.
This fight only goes one way in my mind. With O'Malley likely in the back end of his "prime" and Umar clearly still somewhere on the path to becoming champion, I see Umar dominating with his wrestling.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov over
O'Malley by Decision
Matt Hylen
Though it was not the finish fans were hoping for, I do think this was exactly what Sean O'Malley needed to get his mindset back on track. I mean, we saw him in the octagon interview; he just needed a win. He looked sharp, kept the distance to his comfort zone, and reminded the world just how lethal he can be when his confidence is high.
As for Umar, this fight on Saturday was a stepping stone for him. He outclassed Figueiredo in every facet, which rarely happens even with Figueiredo's age. The only thing missing was that finish though; if he ended up finishing Figueiredo, I feel he would be in a much different spot.
So, since O'Malley and Nurmagomedov are coming off big wins but by decision, why not make this matchup and claim it as a title eliminator? In my eyes, it is just way too difficult to rationalize giving one of these fighters a title shot over the other when their position is basically exactly the same. We do not know when Merab plans on returning, but whenever he does, it will be for the title for sure. In the meantime, I think a matchup between these two could help shape the future of this division in a much clearer way.
As for a prediction, give me O'Malley by decision. A Sean O'Malley with confidence is a dangerous one, even with the threat Nurmagomedov poses on the ground.
Song Yadong vs WINNER of
Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira
Zak Drapeau
Yadong could have won that fight easily with other judges but ultimately lost the coin flip. With the Bantamweight division so tightly contested at the top, Yadong will not be getting another Top-5 fight but could get a very interesting fight with one of the division's rising stars next.
Cue the winner of Bautista/Oliveira, who main event the Fight Night on February 7th. Both of these guys have been shooting up the rankings, with Oliveira undefeated in the UFC and Bautista coming off his only loss to Umar. For this article, I'm going to predict Oliveira as the winner based on his precision as a boxer and his ability to level change, making me assume he will win the takedown battle.
When it then comes to Yadong vs. Oliveira, both fighters will be extremely hungry to win, assuring a Top-5 ranking afterward. Facing Yadong would be EASILY Oliveira's toughest fight yet, but one I think he'll be up for. Plain and simple, Oliveira's younger and on a roll, and Yadong's momentum is in the opposite direction. Their fight should be very competitive with a mix of clinch work and boxing, but one I think Vinicius should win on the cards.
Prediction: Oliveira over Bautista
by Decision
Oliveira over Yadong
by Decision
Matt Hylen
Similar to Pimblett in his loss, Song Yadong lost in just about the best way he could have. His durability was phenomenal; it was more a matter of him not having the reach to get inside the pocket on O'Malley. Even with that, the fight was extremely close. With that said, I don't think Yadong deserves too far of a drop down.
I think a fight between Yadong and the winner of Bautista/Oliveira could be extremely intriguing, not only for fans but for the landscape of the division. Whoever wins this fight would put themselves right into title contention and possibly even a title eliminator. All three are strikers with big power, so it would fit stylistically as well.
For a prediction, I would have Oliveira beating Bautista by TKO/KO but Yadong winning by a very close decision. I think Oliveira is legit and could be a champion one day, but at the same time, Yadong's experience and talent could stop him at this point in his career.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs
Alexander Volkov
Zak Drapeau
I've said it before and I'll say it again, WCA is a beast. It's ironic that in defeating Derrick Lewis, he may have proven that he's the division's new Derrick Lewis. Even though he lost to Pavlovich less than a year ago, I have him jumping the Russian to face the #2 contender Alexander Volkov, who is a bit stuck in the rankings at the moment when the division as a whole is in a weird spot, waiting for Aspinall, Jones, Pereira, and Gane to get on with it.
Nonetheless, the prospective fight between Cortes-Acosta and Volkov will come down to whether WCA can close the distance. If Volkov stays elusive and on the outside, he'll win on points using his height and kicks. If Cortes-Acosta can get inside on him, I see the fight ending just as Volkov-Lewis did in 2018; with Volkov on his back.
Volkov has gone the distance in his last three fights and is clearly at the stage of his career where he plans to outsmart his opponents rather than dominate them, which I don't value in a war against Acosta. With the younger, hungrier, and more dangerous challenger holding the momentum as well, I have this fight ending early.
Prediction: Cortes-Acosta over
Volkov by TKO/KO
Matt Hylen
I gotta say, Cortes-Acosta looked pretty dang good. Granted, Derrick Lewis looked maybe the worst he has ever looked, so WCA did not have to do much, but that power is for real. The biggest thing he showed to me was the speed; for a guy his size and with his power, his speed made him simply untouchable.
With the streak he is on, along with the opponents he's beaten and the activity he has shown, WCA deserves a title eliminator next. The general consensus is that Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane will have a rematch, so guys like Volkov and WCA are a little stuck at the moment. WCA has done so much for what has been, for so long, a weak division, so a fight against one of the best in Volkov is more than deserving.
Sure, WCA did call out Curtis Blaydes, but I think he should think bigger. Volkov is currently the number one contender outside Gane but is stuck since he doesn't deserve a fight too far down but is behind Gane in line. So, now that a contender is in a similar position, Volkov can finally get a fight in before a potential championship bout should he win.
For a prediction, give me Cortes-Acosta by TKO/KO. I am done doubting this guy, he is 100% for real.
Natalia Silva vs
Valentina Shevchenko
Zak Drapeau
The only fight that makes sense for both fighters and the Women's Flyweight division is for Natalia Silva to be the next challenger for Shevchenko's title. On short notice, Silva got in the ring with one of the best fighters in UFC history and shut Rose Namajunas down.
I'm here to tell you that Silva is the LAST fighter in the 115-pound division that can dethrone Shevchenko. Her boxing and distance control are tremendous, not to mention she will have the youth and hunger advantages in this fight.
Unfortunately for the Brazilian, the fight may be close, but I believe Valentina still wins this fight comfortably. The thing about Shevchenko is that she is such an elite kickboxer that you have to game plan on the feet, and in the past 2 years, she has become an elite wrestler too. Shevchenko is probably the most well-rounded fighter in the history of the division, and since Silva hasn't really been tested on the ground, I believe this fight will show Silva having moments of boxing and landing combos but will ultimately have her on her back for 10-15 minutes plus.
Prediction: Shevchenko over Silva
by Decision
Matt Hylen
There is just no denying Natalia Silva anymore. To fight someone like Rose Namajunas on short notice and control the fight the way she did is such an impressive feat. She is impossible to solve right now, making a fight against the champ all the more interesting.
The only real aspect of Silva's game we are a little unfamiliar with is her ground defense and her grapple defense. This is something Shevchenko would absolutely test, but in a way she has never experienced before. That being said, I feel as though Silva's fight style is unlike anything Shevchenko has seen before, making Silva extremely dangerous.
I would love to see this fight be a main event as well. I think both women are deserving of it and can bring in enough attention to warrant the nod. This, if and when it happens, would be such a fun fight and easy to promote to the world.
As for the prediction, call it recency bias or not, but I would have Silva by decision here. She is just a puzzle I do not think anyone can solve when she's at her best.
Jean Silva vs
Yair Rodriguez
Zak Drapeau
I had Arnold Allen in that fight, and BOY did Jean Silva impress me. So much so that I really think he deserves a Top-3 fight, so matching him with Yair would be perfect.
At the moment, Yair is pretty stuck as well, with Lopes getting the title shot and Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev likely to get the next. A battle with Silva could propel him to be undeniable in the near future rather than getting passed by newer blood.
Their matchup would be a standup war between two highly skilled kickboxers. Even though Yair is clearly more talented in Muay Thai and with controlling distance with his creative use of kicking, I have Silva winning this with effort and more output. His performance against Arnold Allen showed me that Silva is really putting in the effort to get in close and dirty box, and I have to take the up-and-comer here over the clinging veteran.
Prediction: Silva over Rodriguez
by KO/TKO
Matt Hylen
Jean Silva was awesome on Saturday. Coming off a brutal TKO loss to Diego Lopes, he bounced back beautifully with a stellar performance against a game opponent in Arnold Allen.
My biggest key for him coming into this fight was patience; this is why he lost against Lopes. He got impatient, rushed his punches, and got caught. However, he brushed that flaw up in his game perfectly, waited for his chances, and took advantage of every opportunity.
So, I think Silva showed enough growth to warrant another fight inside the top five, making Yair Rodriguez a perfect candidate. Not only would this be an insane stylistic clash, but it gives Rodriguez an opportunity to remind the world why he is still the #3 ranked featherweight. I could absolutely see this main eventing a Fight Night card; it has that much potential.
As for a prediction, I would have Silva by decision here. If this patient and calm version of Silva is here to stay, then it could just be his time.
Josh Hokit vs
Mick Parkin
Zak Drapeau
I have to give credit for this matchup to Matt, who really likes Hokit, and after his first-round knockout last weekend, I can't blame him. Hokit has some serious power, and being 2-0 in the UFC and undefeated in his career could easily set him up for a ranked fight next.
With Mick Parkin sitting at #13 in the division and the heavyweights always looking to add new guys to their ranks, a "prove-it" fight for Parkin is more than necessary.
This fight should be a huge challenge for Hokit, having to overcome a massive 6" reach difference in the fight and deal with Parkin's stick-and-move style. It's likely that the first big haymaker landed for him could turn Parkin's lights out, but for me, I believe he could get gassed and outmatched in this fight by the more experienced fighter.
Prediction: Parkin over Hokit
by Decision
Matt Hylen
Though extremely controversial, Hokit is a character that could make major waves very soon in the heavyweight division. He looked absolutely dominant on Saturday, hits like a truck, all while having a showman-like personality.
With the division as stagnant as ever at the bottom, Hokit might deserve a ranked opponent already. This division needs a prospect that can capture an audience, so throwing him into the fire might be the only option. Parkin is the most realistic candidate, as he is coming off a loss but still possesses top-tier talent, but be on the lookout because big things may be in store for Josh Hokit.
As for a prediction, give me Hokit by TKO/KO here.
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-Z.D. (@DrapeauZak)
-Matt Hylen (@matthylen_)