Predicting Falcons 2025 Wins by Schedule

Zak Drapeau
Aug 12
6 min read

by Zak Drapeau 8/12/2025 Sportz Nation

Team Overview

Photo by Kevin C. Cox via gettyimages.com

The Falcons really seem like a team on the precipice of becoming a very good team or having another Top-5 draft pick and I can't decide which side of the fence I fall on.

The whole team will be dependent on the #8 overall pick in the 2024 draft Michael Penix Jr. The surprise pick set the tone for the future of the organization at Quarterback mere weeks after shelling out a 4yr/$160 Million contract to FA Kirk Cousins. Surrounding the young QB is a collection of playmakers that may be among the Top-10 of the league. RB Bijan Robinson has been among the most skilled at his position since drafted 3 years ago and is coming off the best season of his career. Also coming off his best season is WR Drake London who became a legit Top-10 WR last season. The O-line in Atlanta has been underrated for years and is also towards the top of the league and rounds out one of the best and most balanced units in the NFL.

On defense, the Falcons finally decided to put draft capital toward their pass rush and it could change this unit for years to come. Having a great squad but a miserable pass rush has been the Falcons' identity for years now but in the 2025 draft they would select Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., 2 of the top-4 EDGE's in the class. Alongside a Pro Bowl-level secondary with players like Jessie Bates and A.J. Terrell, this defense could really take a turn especially while being overseen by Raheem Morris.

So could this be the season the Falcons get back to glory they've been trying to find since 2018? Or could the Michael Penix experiment die before it every truly lived? Let's take a look at how this season could go for the Falcons, game-by-game.

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Week 1: vs Buccaneers

Rough start but a necessary one for the Falcons to judge their hopes in the AFC South this season. The Buccs offense will be just too complete for the Falcons at this moment but later on in the season when the team is clicking, this game will be important to look back on.

Prediction: Buccaneers 35-24

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Week 2: @ Vikings (SNF)

After a tough outing at home the Falcons travel up north to Minnesota for their first prime time game of the year. The Vikings offense is almost identical to the Falcons with a questionable Quarterback around a great offense but I somehow have more faith in the Vikings. Plus they're at home.

Prediction: Vikings 27-23

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Week 3: @ Panthers

Another divisional game and both teams are 0-2 at this point. Bryce Young had a few weeks where he looked like a #1 pick last year but unfortunately for him the rest of the roster is still depleted. I'm not sure which Quarterback performs better but the Falcons defense will win this one anyway.

Prediction: Falcons 24-20

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Week 4: vs Commanders

This game should be fireworks. The Falcons' offense may even have the edge here besides Jayden Daniels over Michael Penix but as a whole, I have to give the edge in their roster and coaching to the Commanders. This game will either end in a game winner from Daniels or a game loser by Penix.

Prediction: Commanders 28-24

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Week 5: BYE Week

After a 1-3 start, the Falcons early BYE Week is actually a blessing. With the season looking like it could get away from them, a Week 5 BYE is good for the team to assess what they've done wrong and change it before we get too far into the season.

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Week 6: vs Bills

After an extra week of prep and a home game, the Bills could be in for an upset in this one. Unfortunately, I don't think I can give a single advantage in the game to the Falcons in this one. They'll put up a good fight but ultimately don't have much of a chance in this one anyway.

Prediction: Bills 21-14

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Week 7: @ 49ers (SNF)

Back in prime time and across the country, the Falcons have another matchup against a great team. The 49ers are in the middle of a small rebuild but are still one of the best-coached teams and most experienced in the league.

Prediction: 49ers 27-17

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Week 8: vs Dolphins

Now at 1-5, this game will turn out to be one of the most important of the season when being looked back on. In a matchup where the Falcons can really throw the ball against a depleted Dolphins' secondary, Penix has his best game of the season as the Falcons break their loss streak and build a little momentum.

Prediction: Falcons 31-21

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Week 9: @ Patriots

After winning last week the Falcons have a much tougher game ahead against the Patriots defense. Luckily, the Pats' O-line could really have trouble this year and in perfect timing, the rookie rushers will expose it. After the offense builds momentum last week, it's the defenses' turn to start to turn around.

Prediction: Falcons 23-21

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Week 10: vs Colts (NFL Europe Game)

This game will be in Berlin where the Colts are starting to build a fan base in their second game in two season. Unfortunately for the Colts, their roster is well-built but without a Quarterback and even though they can score some points, mid season Michael Penix will win this one for the dirty birds.

Prediction: Falcons 28-27

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Week 11: vs Panthers

After their Week 3 win in Carolina, the Falcons are very confident to extend their win streak here. Bryce Young should have a better game but once again, the Panthers' shortcomings mostly on defense will be too much for him to overcome.

Prediction: Falcons 31-21

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Week 12: @ Saints

I've said it before but teams should not underestimate the Saints this year especially their defense. A very solid secondary and captain leaders could force an unexperienced Quarterback like Penix to have an off game and in New Orleans, take the upset win.

Prediction: Saints 24-21

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Week 13: @ Jets

The Jets have the opposite roster to the Falcons with an established and high-potential defense but an unpredictable offense. In what should be a great-defensive battle, I'll give this one to the playmakers on the Falcons especially Bijan to barely inch this Win out.

Prediction: Falcons 19-13

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Week 14: vs Seahawks

This is a matchup that on paper, should be won by the Seahawks but let me tell you why I'm actually picking the Falcons. Firstly the momentum, winning 5 of their last 6, the birds are flying high n both sides of the ball and have a home game against a Seahawk team that has the 2nd longest flight of any single road trip this season. A great game that comes down to Sam Darnold throwing a 4th quarter-pick.

Prediction: Falcons 24-20

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Week 15: @ Buccaneers (TNF)

Now at 7-6, the Falcons will travel to the Buccs in a rematch from last year's BEST TNF game of the season. A year after Kirk Cousins went over 500 yards, Baker does the same thing now in a classic AFC South battle that sees Penix come up just short in an effort that shows he truly belongs in this league.

Prediction: Buccaneers 31-28

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Week 16: @ Cardinals

Another road trip and the Falcons take on an even better defense in Arizona. The Cardinals' defense is vastly underrated and good everywhere so if Penix makes even one mistake, this game could get away from them.

Prediction: Cardinals 31-22

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Week 17: vs Rams (MNF)

Needing to win out to even have a chance at the playoffs, the Rams come to town. Passing offense versus passing offense should see Penix get on a roll but running for his life in the meantime. At the end of the day I'll take Stafford to win this duel.

Prediction: Rams 28-21

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Week 18: vs Saints (TBD)

Now firmly out of the playoff race, the Falcons end the season at home against a Saints team that needs to lose to still have a shot at the #1 pick. This game will show all the frustrations this Falcons team has had and Penix' progression as he and the Falcons' offense completely embarrasses the Saints to end the season on a bit of a high note.

Prediction: Falcons 38-21

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The Falcons finish with a 8-9 record including a 4-4 record at home and a 3-3 record in the AFC South.

The second half of the season was like night and day to the first half where the Falcons struggled to get their team clicking. Once they did they were a different team and starting with Michael Penix really became a team to worry about in the NFC. The defense had a solid season behind Raheem Morris and new pass rushers Walker and Pearce Jr. were a huge reason, not lighting the world on fire but combining for 16 sacks in their rookie season would go a long way from changing this Falcons' defense from mid to really good.

Going into this off season will be much better if these young stars show out and give the Falcons new hope on both sides of the ball. Their O-line and D-line will need to be addressed but with this team having a clear vision for the future, they could be pushing for the playoffs in 2026.

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