Predicting Fight Night Allen vs Duncan

Sportz Nation Staff

24 hours ago

7 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 10/9/2026

In our UFC 32 Predictions, which you can find here,

Zak went 3-3 in picks with 1 methods for 4 points.

Matt went 3-3 in picks with 2 methos for 5 points.

Points To Date:

Zak: 194 (131-77)

Matt: 169 (116-86)

*All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook on 10/10

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4Brendan Allen vs

10Christian Leroy Duncan

(Allen -115)

Zak Drapeau -

This could be a real dog fight even if the two Main Eventers aren't that big of a draw. CLD is on a 5 and Allen, a 3-fight win streak with most ways from both fighters being decision. CLD will have a 4" reach advantage between the two, everything else is virtually the same.

CLD has been in the Octagon for just over three years now but hasn't fought anyone even close to the level of Allen in his 10 fights. Meanwhile, in Allen's 7 years and 19 fights, (15-4 record) he has fought fighters all over the division with different skills, abilities and styles. CLD has a good future and some really good hands but Allen's experience and ability to switch from grappling to striking should give him the edge.

Prediction: Allen by Decision

Matt Hylen -

This fight goes one of two ways in my mind: Either Christian Leroy Duncan will hit Brendan Allen with some sort of spinning attack that gets him a finish, or Allen clinches and grapples his way to a decision win.

Allen is one of these guys that will beat the low ranked opponent but not the higher ranked opponents. He is a phenomenal grappler, but lacks that finishing ability that can get him big fights. Even so, when he does get big fights he looks like a shell of himself. Luckily for him, Duncan hasn’t ascended yet, so I give him a great chance to win this fight.

As for Duncan, he is a unique striker who loves a good spinning attack. He has power in his hands, much more than Allen does, but hasn’t really been able to show it against opponents who like to clinch or fight within close distance. Allen could be a nightmare matchup for Duncan, making me think he will need a flash counter in order to win this fight.

Prediction: Allen by Decision

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Matheus Camilo vs

Jai Herbert

(Camilo -185)

Zak Drapeau -

Matheus Camilo has had 3 fights in the UFC so far and seems to be getting better exponentially each time. He is the betting favorite and in the classic role of rising prospect vs aging veteran but there is a HUGE, 8" reach advantage going against his favor in this fight against a still-very dangerous Jai Herbert.

Herbert may be 38 but has shown no sign of slowing down, facing some of the best non-ranked fighters at 155 and going the distance or winning. Herbert is still very much a problem for 155-ers and that is especailly true for a 25-year old who hasn't faced anyone yet. Still, there will come a point in this fight where the two of them just throw down as both power strikers and Camilo should be able to end it.

Prediction: Camilo by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

This fight is pretty straight forward to me. Outside of almost head kicking a young Ilia Topuria to sleep, Jai Herbert really hasn’t done much in his time in the UFC. Sure, he is coming off a nice TKO victory over Mandel Nallo, but Nallo isn’t the most skilled fighter. Herbert is going to have to show a lot of improvement defensively if he wants to win this fight.

Matheus Camilo is an extremely fun fighter to watch. He has unreal power for the division, and won’t have to worry much about grappling in this fight. He is a bit inconsistent defensively, which could allow Herbert to counter with heavy strikes, but I think Camilo will outclass Herbert on the feet until he gets a finish.

Prediction: Camilo by TKO/KO

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8Loopy Godinez vs

Ketlen Souza

(Godinez -230)

Zak Drapeau -

Loopy Godinez is a true mixed martial artist who's still in her prime at 33 years old and has only lost to 3 of the cureent Top-4 fighters in her division over the last 4 years. On the other hand, Souza is getting this Top-10 fight because she had a pretty great knockout last time she was in the Octagon and has won 2 in a row.

On paper this is a pretty sizable mismatch. Godinez is well-versed in Judo and Jiu Jitsu and is facing a pure striker with very limited experience against top-level competition. This fight will EASILY be a 3-round, grapple fest with Godinez winning a 30-27 decision.

Prediction: Godinez by Decision

Matt Hylen -

Both Loopy Godinez and Kelten Souza are in weird spots in their careers. The crush lower tier opponents but will get dominated by upper tier opponents, which has plateaued Godinez at the bottom of the top-10 and Souza right outside the rankings.

I like Souza’s power advantage in this fight, especially since we finally saw her get a finish in her last fight, but Godinez is the more technical grappler. If Godinez can take Souza to the ground, I like her to win this fight, but I don’t think it’ll be that easy. Souza’s last two loses have been very close split decisions, with her last two wins being dominant. I think Souza will put Godinez on upset watch and show that she has what it takes to be a ranked contender.

Prediction: Souza by TKO/KO

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Malcolm Wellmaker vs

Otari Tanzilovi

(Wellmaker -225)

Zak Drapeau -

At a certain point, Wellmaker was thought of as a rising Boogeyman in the Bantamweight division until he actually faced two of the best prospects in both Ewing and Diaz. Now, with another chance to salvage a promising future, Wellmaker has to face an Tanzilovi who is on a skid right now but is a seriously dangerous fighter.

Otari Tanzilovi has been fighting for other promotions since 2018 and has some savagery to his game but lost his only 2 UFC appearances. A move down to Bantamweight is his next adventure and even though he's a decided underdog, something about this fight gives me a wild, performance of the night bonus knockout vibe. Give me my Underdog Pick of the Week here.

Prediction: Tanzilovi by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

I have been a massive Malcom Wellmaker believer ever since he debuted on the Contender Series. Yes, he is coming off two pretty bad loses, but the prospect that was hyped tremendously is still in there somewhere in my opinion.

When Wellmaker is on top of his game, his power is unbelievable. He has true one-punch KO ability with extremely fast hands. Otari Tanzilovi can definitely stand and bang as well, but he hasn’t shown much promise since coming over to the UFC. I think Wellmaker’s speed and size gives him a serious advantage and puts him in prime position to get back on track.

Prediction: Wellmaker by TKO/KO

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Francisco Prado vs

Ismael Bonfim

(Prado -120)

Zak Drapeau -

Welcome to the "loser gets cut from the roster" fight of the night which means it should quite literally be the most competitive and tense fight of the night. With very similar sizes, paths and styles, the only real difference between the two is Prado being 7 years younger.

Over his last few fights, Prado has struggles against longer opponents and Bonfim will have a 3" advantage in this one. Bonfim has also gone up against some of the best prospects out of the 155-rankings to his credit like Sola, Padilla and even BSD a few years ago. I like his experience and length in this one in what should be a bounce back win for Bonfim.

Prediction: Bonfim by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

After Ismael Bonfim weighed in 7.5 pounds over the lightweight limit, it is crazy to be that this fight is still happening. Yet, here we are, and as Zak said the stakes couldn’t be higher for these two.

Francisco Prado came into the UFC as an intriguing prospect, but he was way too young and simply not ready for UFC-level competition. As for Bonfim, he has had his highs in the promotion but has also had some pretty bad lows as of late. I think this could definitely be a fun matchup between two strikers with good power and zero defense. It is tough to say who has an advantage, but it concerns me that Bonfim came into that overweight. That typically means that either he didn’t put enough effort in training or that the training was too much for his body to handle and he couldn’t cut the weight. Either way, Bonfim won’t be coming into this fight at 100% strength, which I think could help Prado over the edge and into the win column.

Prediction: Prado by TKO/KO

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Felipe Franco vs

Brendson Ribeiro

(Franco -370)

Zak Drapeau -

A fight pretty similar to our last entry between two fighters down on their luck in their previous few fights, Ribeiro vs Franco won't necessarily mean much but could give us serious fireworks.

I think it's probably more likely that Franco takes the fight to the ground and ends it with strikes but Ribeiro actually has a good reach advantage which could seriously dampen his gameplan. I think this one ends in the 1st round on the ground by Franco but I'm gonna go submission here. Ribeiro needs a change of scenery to build himself back up and this fight should show that.

Prediction: Franco by Submission

Matt Hylen -

This should be a one sided fight in my opinion. Felipe Franco looked awesome in his natural weight class last time out, showcasing his balanced fighting style. I think he could be a force to be reckoned with at Light Heavyweight, especially considering he’s only 25 years old.

Brendson Ribeiro is currently on a four fight losing streak, getting finished in three of those four fights. If Franco could hang around with Mario Pinto at an unnatural weight class on short notice, Franco should have no issue with Ribeiro. Ribeiro is just not sound defensively whatsoever, which should make Franco even more dangerous.

Prediction:

Franco by TKO/KO

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