Predicting Fight Night Rosas Jr vs Barcelos

Sportz Nation Staff

1 hour ago

9 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 9/25/2026

Graphic Credits to IMAGO via ZUMA Press Wire

In our UFC 331 Predictions, which you can find here,

Zak went 2-4 in picks with 1 methods for 3 points.

Matt went 3-3 in picks with 0 methos for 3 points.

Points To Date:

Zak: 185 (124-72)

Matt: 167 (111-79)

*All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook on 9/22

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12Raul Rosas Jr vs

13Raoni Barcelos

(Rosas Jr -175)

Zak Drapeau -

This fight is remarkably about two fighters in the middle of a bonafide winning streak that are doing it from opposite sides of the spectrum. Raul Rosas is 21-years old and at the precipice of what could be a phenom-like rise to the top. Barcelos is 39 and will be competing in his 16th UFC fight this weekend.

Rosas came into the UFC with an unbelievable jiu jitsu pedigree and has gotten better and better every time in the Octagon. Meanwhile, Barcelos has always been a well-rounded martial artist but has actually used grappling a lot lately including 16 takedowns in his last 4 fights. This will be both men's first UFC-5 round fight and I think their tendencies to grapple first will lend to a lot of cage holding on the feet and more control-based movement when someone lands position on the ground. If Barcelos can maintain the fight standing and keep distance I feel his striking advantage will do him very well but Rosas' youth, energy and strength should allow him to make up points and be the much better fighter later in the fight.

Prediction: Rosas Jr. by Decision

Matt Hylen -

I honestly am not sure what to make of this fight. On one hand, it has all the potential to be a very exciting matchup, but on the other I am hesitant to call whoever wins a bonafide star or serious contender.

Raul Rosas Jr has every making of a legitimate UFC contender, but hasn’t fought stiff enough competition. If Rob Font is the biggest name you’ve fought, then Rosas is going to have to show a lot more if he is going to make a true statement in the Bantemweight division. Raoni Barcelos is definitely a worthy name, but he will have to dominate to work his way up significantly.

As for Barcelos, this is basically his last shot at being a contender. He still possesses elite speed and a balanced style, which could challenge Rosas Jr in a big way. Considering Rosas Jr’s grappling is his calling card, I wouldn’t be shocked if Barcelos tried to make this more of a striking matchup and challenge Rosas Jr on the feet.

Though Barcelos is great on the ground and has the power advantage, I think Rosas Jr’s youth and development after a long layoff will help him overwhelm Barcelos. This fight should be close, but I am going to side in favor of the prospect.

Prediction: Rosas Jr by Decision

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4Norma Dumont vs

5Ailin Perez

(Perez -130)

Zak Drapeau -

I understand the women's divisions of the UFC has taken a backseat in 2026 but this fight is absolutwly huge and possibly a title eliminator for the Bantamweight division. Dumont was on 6-fight strwak before losing in April and Ailin Perez picked up her 6th win just February.

Perez is better all-around and has show a tendecny to harp to the style of fight her opponent is weakest in. Her ability to gameplan and execute either wrestling, grappling or striking is world class and should be the difference in this one. Dumont was exposed in her last fight by Joselyne Edwards on the feet so look for her to try and bring this fight to the ground, but if she can't, (and Perez has some of the best takedown defense in the division) Perez should piece her up by the final bell.

Prediction: Perez by Decision

Matt Hylen -

This could be a hot take, but why isn’t this the main event?? There are some huge implications in this fight, plus Norma Dumont and Ailin Perez hate each other which makes this fight all the more enticing.

Starting with Dumont, don’t let her last fight fool you. Dumont may be a decision merchant, but she is extremely calculated in her strikes with great timing on takedown attempts. She is one of those fighters who knows she doesn’t have that KO power or size advantage, but has no issue working her way around that and finding ways to win. Perez will be a huge threat on the ground, so Dumont needs to use her elite clinch work to keep Perez at bay.

With that said, keeping Ailin Perez at bay is way easier said than done. Her grappling is otherwordly; if she can get you down, you are not getting back up. She is as confident a fighter as they come and it shows inside the octagon. Her biggest flaw is her striking; her power is worse than Dumont’s striking and she isn’t really creative with her mixup. Yet, that hasn’t really mattered for Perez because her grappling is so elite.

I may regret this because there is absolutely a world where Dumont pick Perez apart on the feet, but I am going to side with Perez. As I said, her grappling is just next level at this point and I think she showcases that on Saturday night.

Prediction: Perez by Submission

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Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs

Ilimbek Akylbek

(Osmanli -290)

Zak Drapeau -

Pretty rarely do two fighters making their UFC debuts land so highly on a card but Osmanli and Akylbek being the 4th fight from the top should let you know how much the UFC respects these Bantamweights. Osmanli is a 12-1, 22-year old from Azerbaijan who previously fought for UAE and has won 9-straight professional fights with 8 submissions and 2 TKOs under his belt. Akylbek is 10-3 and a 23-year old from Kyrgystan who's fought for too many organizations for such a young age and usually finishes his fight son the ground either by punches or chokes.

It hasn't been officially reported yet, but the size advantage for Osmanli in this fight may be 2" in height and 6" in reach. Add that to Osmanli's reputation as an extremely dangerous grappler on the rise and it's easy to see why he's almost a 3-1 favorite for thie fight. Akylbek's last two losses were his only fights in ONE FC against better opponents so I think this fight is similar, Osmanli rocks him early then finishes the fight with a RNC.

Prediction: Osmanli by Submission

Matt Hylen -

In what will also serve as the TUF finale, the matchup between Ilimbek Akylbek and Mahammadali Osmanli is an intriguing one between two grappling-heavy fighters with different strengths. Akylbek is primarily known for his wrestling, while Osmanli has built his game around dangerous submission grappling.

For Akylbek, he is going to need to close the distance, pressure Osmanli toward the cage and use his wrestling to secure takedowns and maintain top control. However, he will need to be cautious in scrambles because Osmanli has nine submission victories, including a wide variety of choke and triangle finishes.

As for Osmanli, keeping the fight at range could be crucial. His reach advantage gives him the opportunity to use long strikes and make Akylbek work harder to close the distance, while his submission game provides a major threat if the fight reaches the ground.

The biggest question is whether Akylbek can consistently get Osmanli down without getting caught in a submission or dangerous scramble. With both fighters having strong grappling backgrounds, the fight could ultimately come down to whether Akylbek's wrestling and top control can overcome Osmanli's length and submission ability. Personally, I believe Osmanli’s threat to submit you will prove far too much for Akylbek, who might not even get a chance to go on the offense.

Prediction: Osmanli by Submission

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Rodolfo Vieira vs

Robert Bryczek

(Vieira -160)

Zak Drapeau -

Two very good fighters who are toying in the Middleweight division after getting so close but both losing fights close to the rankings and looking to proove themselves. Bryczek had a long and good career before his 1-2 record in the UFC but was dominated in his first fight worth anything, this past May against Rowston. Vieira will be in his 12th UFC fight this weekend and looking for his 7th win.

Vieira has a very simple game plan; grapple heavy, bring you down and go for the choke. Where he gets into trouble is anyone who can mitigate his wrestling and especially has a longer reach. Thankfully foe him, Bryczek has shown himself to be vulnerable to grapplers like in the Rowston fight. This fight goes to decision but I'm going to call for the split, with Vieira controlling a round and Bryczek outstriking him in another. The 3rd is anyone's call but I think Vieira secures one last takedown to barely sway the judges.

Prediction: Vieira by Decision

Matt Hylen -

If this isn’t one of the most grappler vs. striker matchup the UFC could make among the unranked in the Middleweight division, I’m not sure what is.

For Rodolfo Vieira, he is one of the more accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialists in the division. He hasn’t found much success in the UFC yet, but he has also been faced with pretty stiff competition. As for Robert Bryczek, he is going to hold a severe power and boxing advantage against Vieira, which is a style that has plagued Vieira in the past.

To put it simply, the outcome of this fight is determined on whether Vieira can take it to the ground or if Bryczek can keep it on the feet. As I said, Bryczek has shown serious knockout power, while Vieira has struggled more when fights stay competitive on the feet. At the same time, Bryczek has limited submission offense, with just one submission victory compared with Vieira’s nine, making the ground game a very different challenge for him. It’s tough to say, but I like the striker to piece up the grappler in this one.

Prediction: Bryczek by TKO/KO

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Rodolfo Bellato vs

Christian Edwards

(Bellato -175)

Zak Drapeau -

Christian Edwards lost his UFC debut 4 months ago after being one of the most hyped Light Heavyweights to enter the division and will be coming back for vengeance this weekend. Standing in his way is Rodolfo Bellato in what should be a fight where the winner gets a title eliminator next.

Bellato has been on the cusp of the LHW rankings for almost 3 years now and after draws, no contests and losing to the now #5 in the world, should be chomping at the bits. Edwards is an intriguing prospect but Bellato is flat out one of the best in the world. He's also more well-rounded and he could win this by wrestling his way to a UD but ultimately should get the stoppage in the 1st or 2nd.

Prediction: Bellato by TKO

Matt Hylen -

This should be a pretty straight forward fight, but you truly never know. Rodolfo Bellato is an AB’s monster at Light Heavyweight, but don’t count out the grit of Christian Edwards.

I like Christian Edwards game, but he just lacks the pure skill and IQ to figure out a fighter like Bellato. Bellato is been buying his time for a while now; it’s only a matter of time before he breaks into the scene and skyrockets up the ranks. I like Bellato to win this fight but for Edwards to make it much closer than it should have been.

Prediction: Bellato by TKO/KO

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Montel Jackson vs

Ricky Simon

(Jackson -205)

Zak Drapeau -

Montel Jackson has a HUGE size advantage in this one as well as being a 2-1 favorite. Jackson should right now be between 16 and 20 in the Bantamweight division and after losing his last two fights to Figueiredo and Barcelos, will use this fight to get back into the ranked hunt. Simon on the other hand has been a gamer for a few years now but has struggled since getting a better repuation and facing better fighters; with a 2-3-1 record over the last 4 years.

Both fighters have a lot of power in their hands but are mostly decision merchants and use boxing as their primary style. In his career, Simon has only been knocked out by Urijah Faber and Song Yadong so I don't think he goes out in this one but I do think Jackson outstrikes him probably by more than a 2:1 margin.

Prediction: Jackson by Decision

Matt Hylen -

In what is a major step down for Montel Jackson, this is still a huge opportunity for both him and Ricky Simon to get back on the winning track and make a push back in the right direction. With Simon (though his last fight was a draw) and Jackson last loss being to Raoni Barcelos, it made sense to pair these two together in the octagon.

In terms of fighting styles, these two are quite similar. Jackson does have a much bigger reach than Simon does, but Simon has a granite chin that allows him to stand with anyone.

This one is so difficult to predict because I view it as a pick ‘em fight, but I think Simon can get it done. Jackson has had more experience inside the rankings, but Simon’s quickness and underrated grappling could set him over the edge for me should he be able to get inside the pocket.

Prediction:

Simon my Deicidon

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