Predicting UFC 324

Sportz Nation Staff
1 hour ago
8 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

1/23/2026 - Sportz Nation

Justin Gaethje vs

Paddy Pimblett

Lightweight Championship

(Pimblett -230)

This should be an all-out war, even if it's between two fighters who aren't currently deserving of the title shot. Nonetheless, when the Highlight Reel and the Scouser come to blows, one has to assume that the veteran Gaethje should win the chess match when striking. The two have made claims that they plan to keep the fight standing, with Gaethje saying he believes he'll make Paddy necessitate the ground game once he gets the better of him. With Paddy's jiu-jitsu better than Gaethje's still unproven ground game, I would assume the same.

When picking the winner, I may have to side with Gaethje, even though he's more than a 2-1 underdog. His experience, mixed with a technical and brutal kickboxing style that includes some of the best leg kicks in the game, gives him the edge for me. An above-average takedown defense also helps. I think Paddy is a great matchup and will be a future champion, but maybe two years away from the belt. He could use more fights with top-ranked opponents to be ready for it and at least one or two more 5-rounders, with this Saturday marking his first in the UFC.

Prediction: Gaethje by TKO/KO

- Zak Drapeau

For me, this will definitely be an entertaining fight, but one I think one side of the octagon should dominate. For Justin Gaethje, he has been past his prime for some time now, with his KO win over Dustin Poirier being multiple years ago. Since then, he got dominated and knocked out by Max Holloway and beat Rafael Fiziev, who had less than two days' notice, in unimpressive fashion. I just do not think Gaethje has the skills to defend anything he has coming his way Saturday night.

With that said, I think this is Paddy Pimblett's fight to lose. He ragdolled Michael Chandler in a way we have never seen before and is improving on the feet and on the ground with every fight. He is an extremely dangerous submission artist that will shut the light off within seconds. This has a Paddy victory written all over it in my mind. While I do think Gaethje will do better than Chandler did, I do not think it will be by much.

Prediction: Pimblett by Submission

- Matt Hylen

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Sean O'Malley

vs Song Yadong

(O'Malley -210)

Photo Graphic by Farah Hannoun, MMA Junkie

This should be the fight of the night with a potential Knockout of the Night finish. Song Yadong is one of the most vicious strikers in the division, with Sean O'Malley being one of the most technical, along with the champ Petr Yan.

The first fight for Sean O'Malley that isn't Merab Dvalishvili in almost two years, O'Malley will be relishing the opportunity to fight someone who is primarily a striker, even if Yadong is more than a competent wrestler as well. More than that, the last time O'Malley lost to anyone besides Merab was his controversial loss to Chito Vera when his leg gave out.

I'm a big fan of Song Yadong and his knockout power and wrestling, but I have to give this to O'Malley. In my eyes, if you can make it eight rounds with Merab, you should be able to outbox and stuff takedowns for at least two out of three rounds. Even though I could really see O'Malley coming back to grace with a lightning-quick combo that leaves Yadong on his back.

Prediction: O'Malley by Decision

- Zak Drapeau

Finally, a fight for Sean O'Malley that isn't against one of the best wrestlers in the world. The Suga Show has definitely fallen from grace a bit since his championship days, but this is a great start for what could be a title run.

With that said, Song Yadong is no stepping stone; Yadong possesses a type of KO ability we rarely see out of this division, which should help him close the distance that O'Malley's height advantage gives him.

I honestly think this will be one of the better fights the division has had in a while. Both O'Malley and Yadong are true knockout artists who could end it with one shot. That being said, I think O'Malley and his extreme arm and leg reach advantage will help him get cleaner shots early in the fight that'll help him down the line. That, along with his skill and experience against top-tier fighters, should allow him to pick Yadong apart should this fight stay on the feet.

Prediction: O'Malley by Decision

- Matt Hylen

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Waldo Cortes-Acosta

vs Derrick Lewis

(Cortes-Acosta -320)

One of the Heavyweight division's biggest rising stars and one of it's greatest of all time will clash on Saturday between WCA and Derrick Lewis. Both fighters enter this one on a 2 fight, knockout-win streak and have promised another one for this weekend.

The Black Beast has seemingly laughs at father time as he competes in his 31st UFC fight this weekend only 2 weeks before turning 41 years old. On the other hand, WCA will fight in the octagon for the 12th time at the age of 35 and having won 7 of his last 8 fights. Cortes-Acosta has seriously been on a role after an outstanding 2025 and while I may not agree with odds makers giving him 3-1 odds, I do believe he wins out eventually BUT I actually believe both of these warriors respect each others' power and history and I actually like this to be a decision... I know, crazy right?

Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by Decision

- Zak Drapeau

This fight is going to be insane, simple as that. Power is the name of the game in this one; of course, Derrick Lewis is the best KO artist the sport has ever seen, but Waldo Cortes-Acosta has otherworldly power as well that has to be considered. Cortes-Acosta will likely be a little more selective with his shots, while Lewis' hands will be loose from the start.

This one is so tough to predict because I feel it truly comes down to who lands a big shot first; whoever does will not be able to survive it. In true barnburners like this, it is so difficult not to side with Lewis. We saw in his last fight against Tallison Teixeira that no one really gave him a chance, yet all he needed was that one big shot that put Teixeira down. It'll be his toughest test in a while, but I think the same could happen against Cortes-Acosta.

Prediction: Derrick Lewis by TKO/KO

- Matt Hylen

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Photo Credit to Mike Bohn and Ken Hathaway, MMA Junkie

Natalia Silva vs

Rose Namajunas

(Silva -420)

This is gonna be a title eliminator in the Woman's Flyweight division between #2 Natalia Silva and #6 Rose Namajunas. With Silva's unbeaten 7-fight streak coming to a head it's no question she is one of the best in the division while Namajunas' history supersedes her as one of the greatest woman in the sports' history. The 115-division has been a series of "who hasn't fought Valentina yet" for quite some time and with the crop of new blood that's entered this division including both of these women, (Namajunas has been at Strawweight for her entire career,) it should stand to reason that the winner of this will be an obvious choice.

As it comes down to the actual fight, Silva should be the clear favorite here. A natural and precise striker, Natalia doesn't waste time and go right to dirty boxing, something she does as good as anyone in the division. Rose will usually try to time her opponents and land at distance but with someone as impactful as Silva constantly bullying her opponents in her face, I have to believe Silva will plainly outwork her to the tune of 3 unanimous rounds.

Prediction: Silva by Decision

- Zak Drapeau

I am so glad this fight was moved to the main card. Natalia Silva is an absolute monster; she basically will do whatever she wants whenever she wants on the feet. Her kick power is second to none and her ability to find her spots is among the best we have seen in years. She has champion written all over her, but she has to get through what might be her biggest challenge to date.

Rose Namajunas is the definition of a been-there-done-that fighter. Her experience is among the greatest in the sport, as we have seen her fight basically any kind of fighter. Though she may be on the downside from her prime, she's still a former champion who has no fear of being an underdog.

Prediction-wise, I think Silva can get this done rather quickly. Namajunas is coming off a win against Miranda Maverick, but her loss to Tracy Cortez sort of signified to me the end of her championship run. Don't get me wrong, Cortez is a great fighter, but is not in the same league as Silva. If she couldn't beat Cortez, I simply cannot see anything other than her getting finished against a fighter like Silva. This should ultimately be a stepping stone fight for what looks like Silva's inevitable shot at the title.

Prediction: Silva by TKO/KO

- Matt Hylen

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Arnold Allen vs

Jean Silva

(Silva - 270)

I understand that Arnold Allen hasn't fought in a year and a half but having him as an almost 3-1 underdog is REALLY disrespectful. Not to say that Jean Silva isn't a bad dude but Arnold Allen was right there in the top of the division in 2024 and only lost to Max and Evloev.

Silva is a lethal finisher and will look to put Allen out with his hands or a submission but Allen will look to break Silva's will with unrelenting strikes. With both of these guys on the cusp of being in the division's Top-5, I could see them be tentative when closing the distance in respect to the other which should bring the fight to an ultimate decision, (Pun intended.)

I think this is truly a pick 'em. Allen's ability to swarm an opponent at the slightest glimpse of hurting him and Silva's finishing instinct possibly hindered by his last lost to Lopes giving me the slightest, and I mean slightest feeling to bet against the house and take Allen.

Prediction: Allen by Decision

-Zak Drapeau

Another interesting fight that should be a fun one for the fans. Arnold Allen has not fought in two years after his loss to Movsar Evloev, so he will be a true wild card in terms of what version of him we are getting. As for Silva, he is a skilled striker with dangerous power but was humbled in his most recent loss to Diego Lopes.

To keep this short and sweet, this should be Silva's fight to lose as long as he keeps his ego in check. Allen has been away from the game for far too long and did not look that great in his last couple of fights, thus making the idea of a Silva win even more enticing.

Prediction: Silva by Decision

- Matt Hylen

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Umar Nurmagomedov

vs Deiveson Figueiredo

(Nurmagomedov -1600)

It has now been over 3 years since Deiveson Figueiredo last fought his fighting-soul mate Brandon Moreno. After a 4-2 record in the Bantamweight division and having just turned 38-years old, I believe the former UFC champ still has something in the tank.

That being said, Umar is a different beast. Work rate and wrestling are the name of the game and even though Figgy has the edge when it comes to experience and high stakes-fights but Umar has youth, grappling and obviously the oddsmakers on his side.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Decision

- Zak Drapeau

This was the other fight (along with Silva vs. Namajunas) that I could not believe was not a main card fight. Two top guys in the Bantamweight division going at it head to head in what should be a fun grappling exchange has huge prospects. This could also end up being Deiveson Figueiredo's last fight, so keep that in mind.

As for the fight itself, this should be a Umar Nurmagomedov domination. Sure, Figueiredo may have something left in the tank, but as I said, he could possibly be a loss away from retirement. Since this is his last chance to climb the championship ladder, I do think we will see Figueiredo at his best relative to his age, but Umar is younger, more skilled, and more dangerous at this point in time for me to think anything other than a win for Umar.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Submission

- Matt Hylen

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