Predicting UFC 325

Sportz Nation Staff
3 days ago
9 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 1/30/2026

(All odds are via Caesar's Sportsbook on 1/29)

Last week Zak went 5-1 and Matt went 4-2 in picking the winners of UFC 324 with both getting 2 methods right as well.

For UFC 325 this week, the boys will predict __ fights in their ongoing series of UFC Predictions ALL YEAR

Points To Date:

Zak - 7

Matt - 6

C Alexander Volkanovski

vs #2 Diego Lopes 2

Featherweight Championship

(Volkanovski -145)

(Zak's Prediction)

The first fight between Volk and Lopes was a domination by the champ and Lopes' only loss in the UFC. This time around, I expect the challenger to come more prepared for a much closer fight.

Lopes' last fight ended in a brutal knockout of Jean Silva that allowed him to leapfrog other contenders like Evloev and Murphy.

I still have Volkanovski as the better and more experienced striker, even though Lopes is definitely more likely to win via knockout. With his second time challenging, I think Lopes brings this fight to a winner-take-all Round 5 where Volk will step up when it matters most like we've seen before.

Prediction: Volkanovski by Decision

(Matt's Prediction)

Though it has sparked major controversy within the UFC world, I think Diego Lopes is a worthy candidate for the belt. Should he have gotten another shot before the likes of Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev? Probably not, but that's not to say Lopes does not have a serious chance to win this fight.

With this being the second fight between the two, I think we will see a much more tactical fight. Volkanovski understands his chin isn't what it used to be, while Lopes is bound to be more patient with his strikes. I also think we see Lopes try and implement a few takedown attempts, which is something we really did not see in the first match between him and Volk.

This is such a tough one to predict. On one hand, Volkanovski has the experience, but on the other, I think Lopes has more skill. Regardless, I think this will be another great fight with both Volkanovski and Lopes having their moments.

Prediction: Volkanovski by Decision

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#6 Dan Hooker vs

#8 Benoit Saint-Denis

(Saint-Denis -340)

(Zak's Prediction)

While this fight may not have the name value normally associated with co-main events, the war between Hooker and Saint-Denis should more than live up to its billing.

We know Hooker is always down for a war, and Saint-Denis is one of the premier finishers in the division. As a precursor to a possible title eliminator in the future, I have to believe that Hooker is here for the entertainment, while Saint-Denis is the one with the real future. With Hooker's past track record being what it is, I'd see a second-round choke here.

Prediction: Saint-Denis by Submission

(Matt's Prediction)

This fight is going to be crazy. Two absolute warriors going at it in what should put the winner in top-5 contention.

Hooker is an absolute brawler; he has absolutely no fear of getting in brawls and throwing hands. He also has a chin of steel, making him extremely difficult to finish. However, his biggest flaw is his inability to get back to his feet once taken down. This could be a huge problem for Hooker should Saint Denis' game plan be grapple-heavy.

For Saint Denis, he possesses a lot of power but is more tactical with his strikes. His ground game is underrated and is something I also think will be featured in this fight. The biggest thing for Saint Denis is his chin. He has been prone to getting clipped by opponents, which results in his getting finished.

I think this fight will start as a striking match, but become more of a grapple-heavy fight near the end. Saint Denis has no problem grappling opponents, and with Hooker being below average on the ground, Saint Denis will likely take advantage of that.

Prediction: Saint Denis by Submission

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#9 Rafael Fiziev vs

#14 Mauricio Ruffy

(Ruffy -130)

(Zak's Prediction)

These guys are true warriors in the 155-division but have come up short in their biggest fights so far. That's why this fight may have the most to lose of any on this card, with both Fiziev and Ruffy possibly on the outs of the division with a loss.

Ruffy is the much bigger and younger fighter but with a clear gap between his and Fiziev's experience. A veteran of 8 fights within the Top-15, including 2 with the current interim champ Gaethje, Fiziev has been known to be a tough customer who will trade bombs and precise strikes with the best of them.

Ruffy's first glimpse in the rankings came against Saint-Denis only 4 months ago when he got clearly outwrestled. Likely to be a part of a standup war this weekend, I think the Brazilian Ruffy can pull it out as he gets another shot at rising up the ranks.

Prediction: Ruffy by Decision

(Matt's Prediction)

Another stylistic chess match that I am excited to see unfold. Though the size advantage will be looming large, do not write off this fight as a potential fight of the night.

I really like Fiziev's game; I think he is extremely underrated in this division. Sure, he is coming off a tough loss to Justin Gaethje, but that fight was taken on short notice. Fiziev's striking is absolutely world-class and is among the best in the entire sport. With Ruffty unlikely to grapple, this should play into Fiziev's hands nicely.

However, don't count out the walking highlight reel that is Mauricio Ruffty. His one-strike knockout power is legit, which is something Fiziev has to be aware of. The biggest X-factor for Ruffty will be how he uses his kicks. His athleticism and flexibility make the threat of his kicks much more dangerous. It also allows him to keep the distance between his opponent to the extent he likes.

Though Ruffty could absolutely pull off the upset, I think Fiziev will outclass him. After the Gaethje loss, people seem to have written Fiziev off. I think this is a big mistake.

Prediction: Fiziev by TKO/KO

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#12 Tai Tuivasa vs

#15 Tallison Teixeira

(Teixeira -380)

(Zak's Prediction)

I know this fight is already a mismatch on paper, but the more you look into it, -380 might not be enough for Teixeira this weekend. I love Tui and his Shoeys as much as the next guy, but after five straight losses to ranked fighters, a matchup with the up-and-coming Brazilian with a HUGE size difference is another tough matchup for him.

Teixeira is obviously looking for the quick knockout after three straight fights ending in the first two minutes. After being flatlined by Derrick Lewis in his last fight, there's a chance he tries something new, but I find it unlikely.

With both of these two men coming to the middle of the Octagon and swinging early, I have to imagine Teixeira winning early and extending Tuivasa's downfall.

Prediction: Teixeira by Decision

(Matt's Prediction)

I honestly think this fight will be total domination and end in the first round. Every time a Tai Tuivasa fight is announced, fans only hope that we will see the version of him that we saw in 2022. Unfortunately, I don't think we will see that version of Tuivasa again. The losing streak is absolutely massive and has shown me no flashes of him ever returning to what he once was. Trust me, I think the sport is better when Tuivasa is winning, but I think his time at the top is coming to an end, and fast.

Tallison Teixeira is going to dominate this fight, in my opinion. He is the much taller fighter with a major reach advantage, while also possessing more power in his strikes. I think Teixeira gets back on track in a big way on Saturday.

Prediction: Teixeira by TKO/KO

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Quilan Salkilid vs

Jamie Mullarkey

(Salkilid -900)

(Zak's Prediction)

This fight seems to be set up to give Salkilid one more big moment before he starts his ascension up the Lightweight Top-15. With Quilan's wrestling probably nerfed my Mullarkey's this fight should be a straight up boxing match.

Mullarkey is definitely more experienced but doesn't stand much chance no matter how you slice it. Wrestling advantage, Quilan. Boxing, Quilan. Power, Quilan. Mullarkey is a good test for the youngster as a savvy and crafty veteran who will have a solid game plan, but one that will be dispatched; not if but when.

Prediction: Salkilid by TKO/KO

(Matt's Prediction)

Quilan Salkilid is going to be a star. That knockout he scored in his last fight against Haqparast was absolutely ridiculous. He has potential that goes through the roof, which I think will be put on full display on Saturday. He can strike, he can grapple, he can do it all. He is a tad unpolished at times, but not enough to grow any major concerns.

Jamie Mullarkey is an average fighter at best; he is a win-loss fighter with a poor chin and fine power. Sure, he will have his moments, but cannot seem to string it all together to make a major push forward. I think this fight is a stepping stone fight for Salkilid and he gets the job done within the 15 minutes.

Prediction: Salkilid by TKO/KO

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Junior Tafa vs

Billy Elekana

(Elekana -250)

(Zak's Prediction)

Two big men on opposite ends of momentum heading into this fight, Tafa and Elekana seem destined not to see the second round. Tafa is 1-3 in his last 4 fights, losing by submission twice and knockout once.

Elekana only has 3 fights in the octagon but has already faced some of the division's best, his only loss coming against #9 Bogdon Guskov. Likely only a few slots behind the Top-15 ranking at Light Heavyweight, this fight seems to be just a preface to Elekana's next fight that should be within the Top-15.

While Junior Tafa is a savage and has some good experience, I have to take Elekana here likely in the first round, and I'll predict a knockout.

Prediction: Elekana by TKO/KO

(Matt's Prediction)

This is another matchup I see being dominated by one side of the coin. Junior Tafa does have decent ability in his striking, but has a below-average chin and next to zero ability on the ground.

On the other hand, Billy Elekana has been on a nice run of form as of late. He did not look bad in his loss, but very strong in his wins. He is a well-rounded fighter that will likely try and take Tafa down. I see this fight being a control fight, with Elekana giving Tafa nowhere to run. Look for Elekana to get this to the ground early and grapple his way to a ranked opponent next.

Prediction: Elekana by Submission

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Jacob Malkoun

vs Torrez Finney

(Malkoun -140)

(Zak's Prediction)

Torrez Finney is a well-kept secret who is about to face his first decent challenge in the UFC against Jacob Malkoun. Two exceptional wrestlers should spend most of their time grappling, even if Malkoun does have a decided advantage on the feet.

Finney is entering this match 11-0 and has always used his strength and wrestling to gain an advantage. Meeting a good wrestler like Malkoun, who has experience in every facet, could be a challenge, but one Finney should be able to overpower.

Unless this fight is stopped midway by a random uppercut or head kick from Malkoun, I think this is 3 rounds of Finney on top.

Prediction: Finney by Decision

(Matt's Prediction)

Styles make fights, which is why this one between Jacob Malkoun and Torrez Finney could be interesting.

Malkoun is more of a lay-and-pray grappler; he is not really known for providing the most entertaining of fights, but can control an opponent easily on the ground. The biggest issue with him is inactivity, so it is hard to say whether or not he has improved as a fighter because of how little he actually fights.

As for Finney, his odd sort of build makes him an extremely compact fighter. His style is to hold opponents against the cage and slam them down, which can be entertaining at times, but also difficult when it comes to finishing opponents.

I think this fight will not be the most entertaining, but could be a chess match in the grappling game. With that said, I think Malkoun's style will overwhelm Finney and give him his first loss on his record.

Prediction: Malkoun by decision

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