Predicting UFC 329

Sportz Nation Staff
8 hours ago
10 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 7/9/2026

Photo Credits to Steve Marcus via Getty Images

In our FN Fiziev vs Torres Predictions, which you can find here:

Zak went 5-1 in picks with 3 methods for 8 points.

Matt went 3-3 in picks with 2 methods right for 5 points.

Points To Date:

Zak: 124 (83-46)

Matt: 116 (76-53)

All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook on 7/10

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Conor McGregor vs

4Max Holloway

(Holloway -210)

Zak Drapeau -

It's very cool that we get to see Conor grace the Octagon again, and to have a dance partner like Max Holloway could bring the very best out of him for at least one last dance. Ever since Conor became Conor and had the boxing fight heard around the world, he has become one of the best strikers in the UFC, even after all of his layoffs. But now he'll be facing someone who probably has an even better claim to that title.

Max not only is one of the best boxers in the UFC but has been a lot more active than Conor and (besides that one time) also has one of the best chins in the business. Now that the two icons will be fighting in a 5-round Main Event in 2026, almost 13 years since McGregor UD'ed Max way back when, I see a lot changing this time around.

Conor may land some shots and get the crowd to a fever pitch, but I only see this fight going one way, and that's with Max landing shot after shot... after shot after shot. With how much McGregor wanted and pushed this fight to be only 3 rounds, I have to think he knows his conditioning and/or chin isn't what it used to be, and when standing in front of "the best boxer in the UFC," I think we see him fall in the 3rd or 4th.

Prediction: Holloway by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

As someone who started following the UFC after Conor McGregor's last fight, I personally am very excited to watch him in action for the first time. Sure, he has not fought since 2021 and has lost three of his last five fights, but at the end of the day, it is still Conor McGregor.

Conor is a jack-of-all-trades type of striker. His kickboxing is phenomenal, his accuracy is otherworldly, all while not needing to pressure his opponents to land his shots. He is one of the best counter punchers we have ever seen inside the UFC octagon because of how powerful and accurate he is time after time. Due to the long layoff, we might see a different version of McGregor, but I still expect that power and accuracy to come into play in this fight.

With that said, he is facing one of the toughest opponents he could have faced in his return fight in Max Holloway. For Max, he is one of the best strikers we have ever seen in the UFC. When he is in his flow state, his vision and IQ when defending and pushing forward is unlike anything we have ever seen in the UFC. His power is legitimate, his combinations are devastating, and he is never afraid to get into a brawl. Yes, he has lost two of his last three, but a loss against Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira, who grappled him the entire fight, is not the worst opponents to lose to.

In all honesty, I think Holloway wins this fight pretty easily. Of course, McGregor will have his moments and will make it very challenging for Holloway to get in a groove, but the layoff is going to be too much for Conor. Having not fought in years, this kind of opponent, I think, is Conor biting off a little more than he can chew at this point in his career. Again, it should still be a fight where both fighters have their moments, but I expect Holloway to take over in the later rounds.

Prediction: Holloway by Decision

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5Benoit Saint-Denis vs

6Paddy Pimblett

(Saint-Denis -135)

Zak Drapeau -

If there were a style matchup between two Top-6 Lightweights at the moment, I really think it's between these two. Two showmen in the prime of their careers fighting for a title shot with very capable ground games that prefer to keep the fight standing.

Saint Denis is on a 4-fight stoppage streak within 9 months of each other, with three of them currently in the Top-15. He is proving that there are few men who can even stand in front of him these days, but his opponent this weekend is coming off a razor-thin loss to Justin Gaethje, where he went 5 hard rounds. Now Paddy just has to go 3 rounds without getting slumped by BSD, and I'm not saying that will be easy, but I think he can do it while being more active, especially if he comes in the way he did against the new Lightweight Champ.

Prediction: Pimblett by Decision

Matt Hylen -

This fight is much more than a typical grappler vs striker matchup. Paddy Pimblett's striking has improved with each fight despite the result, while Benoit Saint Denis has become one of the most balanced fighters in the entire division.

Considering how Saint Denis has become so balanced, I think Paddy is going to have a difficult time finding opportunities to take him down. Saint Denis' style on the feet is all about constant pressure and working in the clinch, where he can either land close shots or go for a takedown. This kind of style is one that Paddy struggles against due to his poor defense on the feet. Pimblett has never been that sound defensively, which is why Justin Gaethje was able to pick him apart, so if he does not tune that up, Saint Denis is going to do the same thing.

I do think Pimblett has a serious chance of winning this fight if he can take Saint Denis down, especially considering the poor bottom game we saw from Benoit when he faced Renato Moicano, but it's the defensive striking I am most worried about. Saint Denis and Justin Gaethje have very similar striking styles, which does not bode well for Pimblett whatsoever.

Prediction: Saint Denis by Decision

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4Cory Sandhagen vs

7Mario Bautista

(Sandhagen -140)

Zak Drapeau -

This is actually the second fight between these two as Cory Sandhagen beat Bautista by 1st round armbar in Bautista's UFC debut 7 years ago. Since then, Bautista has grown into one of the most savage, rising contenders in the division, and Sandhagen has become one of the most consistent men in the 135-title picture. Sandhagen's only losses in the UFC read like a who's-who of the division's history, meanwhile, Bautista hasn't lost a fight that was stand-up heavy in over 5 years.

Bautista is a very unique fighter who puts a striking pace on fighters until he drops them and loves to finish them in a choke, but that game plan probably won't work on Sandhagen. The striking aspect is definitely worth its weight in gold, but I don't expect many knockdowns here. These two are very much in the Sean O'Malley-tier of boxers who stand in the pocket and will try to land 100 shots in a 3-round fight, and against each other may be the perfect chance to do it while picking up a POTN along the way.

This one is a pick 'em for me despite the actual odds, but considering his recent performances, I'm gonna take Bautista, and I'll even call it as a split.

Prediction: Bautista by Decision

Matt Hylen -

This rematch made so much sense to me when it was announced. Both Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista are a fight away from a title eliminator at the very least. What is even more interesting to me is how balanced both of these guys have become, which makes it so unpredictable when thinking about where this fight will go.

I think Sandhagen is going to realize very quickly that Bautista is a very different and improved fighter than he was when they last fought. Bautista is as solid as they come anywhere the fight goes, which is something Sandhagen really hasn't faced before at this level of competition. Cory really has only fought either heavy grapplers or heavy strikers, but Bautista can thrive anywhere the fight goes.

I expect this fight to be very close, but I am leaning in favor of the underdog. Bautista has become one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC, but I think he reminds the world how good he has become on Saturday night.

Prediction: Bautista by Decision

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4Brandon Royval vs

6Lone'er Kavanaugh

(Kavanaugh -220)

Zak Drapeau -

If you don't know by now, I always take an underdog when predicting these cards and... hesitantly, this is going to be the one this time around. Brandon Royval is past his prime, sure, but let's not forget he beat Tatsuro Taira and BARELY lost a 48-47 decision to Josh Van within the last 2 years. In a drawn-out striking match, he can beat anyone of the division's elite tier.

I'm not saying Kavanaugh isn't elite because his win over Moreno was VERY impressive on short notice, but I will say that fight has made him a bit overrated. I'd also say in a high-stakes, possible title eliminator that's been planned for weeks, Royval has had a full camp to prepare for him. As long as Royval doesn't get clipped, I think he'll outstrike Kavanaugh for the upset.

Prediction: Royval by Decision

Matt Hylen -

Outside of the McGregor vs Holloway fight, this is the matchup I am most excited for. In what could see the winner get a title eliminator fight next, so much is on the line for both Royval and Kavanaugh as they attempt to push up the rankings.

I think Lone'er Kavanaugh is one of the most technically sound strikers in the UFC. The way he is able to use his speed and quickness to set up the power in his shots is something he makes look so fluent and easy. He looked so impressive in his last fight against Brandon Moreno on short notice, not rushing his strikes but also picking Moreno apart for five rounds.

Royval is simply going to be overmatched in this fight. Sure, his experience against the division's elite is bar-none, but his kickboxing is just too slow compared to Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh is going to use that kickboxing ability to pick apart Royval just like he did with Moreno.

Prediction: Kavanaugh by TKO/KO

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Bobby Green vs

Terrance McKinney

(McKinney -140)

Zak Drapeau -

If you read our UFC Midyear Awards article we released Tuesday, you'll know this is my pick for Knockout of the Year. I also think this happens in the 1st round after these two show-stealers just start throwing hands right off the rip.

Since I'm going for KOTY, I have this fight ending by a flying knee from T-Wrecks. I think these two throw haymakers to the point Green gets dropped. When the fight doesn't end on the ground, they end up in a clinch against the cage, and shortly after comes the knee that ends it all. This is absolutely throwing s**t to the fan, I realize, but if I get it, I want it to be known here I'm also playing Powerball this weekend.

Prediction: McKinney by Knockout

Matt Hylen -

To be honest, there is not much point in analyzing this fight since it is going to end in round 1. Bobby Green and Terrence McKinney were put on this main card because they are going to waste no time throwing caution to the wind and hunting a finish from start to whenever someone gets knocked out.

Green is definitely the more technical striker, but that won't matter when you face a guy like Terrence McKinney. All of McKinney's fights end in round 1, with either McKinney knocking out his opponent or his opponent knocking him out. I am so torn on which it will be, so I am going to go with who I believe has the better chin to win this fight.

Prediction: McKinney by TKO/KO

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12Nikita Krylov vs

10Robert Whittaker

(Whittaker -130)

Zak Drapeau -

This fight should either be a REALLY cool comeback story for all of us who have been fans of Bobby Knuckles for the past decade, but sadly, I think this won't exactly be the nostalgia trip we all want.

Whittaker may be a warrior with great hands and experience, but the same thing can be said about Nikita Krylov, who is much more experienced at Heavyweight. Not only will Whittaker be getting hit by a Light Heavyweight for the first time, but there is no telling if his speed, stamina, or chin will be affected by the change in diet and weight class. While this could turn out to be good for him, I unfortunately see this similarly to when Gustafsson moved up to Heavyweight in 2020 and was out in the 1st round.

Prediction: Krylov by Submission

Matt Hylen -

This is a very tough matchup for Robert Whittaker's debut at Light Heavyweight. Krylov is going to be the much taller and longer fighter coming in, but where I think Whittaker stands out is his power and his quickness. Whittaker is going to be quicker than most light heavyweights have seen before, it is just a matter of whether or not Whittaker can get inside the pocket and land those big shots.

This should be a back and forth fight, but one I think Whittaker can control. His fight IQ, patience, and countering ability should be a nightmare for a guy like Nikita Krylov, despite the disadvantage Whittaker has in the height and reach.

Prediction: Whittaker by Decision

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8Tracy Cortez vs

12Wang Cong

(Pick 'Em)

Zak Drapeau -

I see this fight going one of two ways. Either Cortez uses her grappling advantage to mitigate Cong's hands, and it takes 15 grueling minutes to get to the decision, or the fight stays a stand-up contest and Cong narrowly edges out the win.

Cortez can box, don't get me wrong, but Wang Cong has momentum on her side after winning three in a row. What that really makes me think is that Cortez will do everything she can to control the fight either against the cage or on the ground. Seeing as how Cong gave up over eight minutes of control time to Eduarda Moura in her last fight, I think Cortez can do better and come out of this one with a win. A snooze-fest probably, but a win is a win.

Prediction: Cortez by Decision

Matt Hylen -

This fight is one of the most underrated on the entire card. Tracy Cortez is among the elite when it comes to grappling, while Wang Cong's kickboxing is as dangerous as anything we see in Women's MMA.

The fate of this matchup firmly lies on whether or not Cortez can land her takedowns. Her striking has improved, which should help with that, but she will get picked apart on the feet by Cong if she can't find a way to take this fight to the mat. Cong's takedown defense is solid but nothing to write home about, so I expect this fight to be pretty split between the feet and the ground. With that said, I like Cortez's chances in the late stages to get the job done.

Prediction: Cortez by Submission

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