Predicting UFC 330

Sportz Nation Staff
3 hours ago
8 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 8/14/2026

In our FN Gamrot vs Salkilld Predictions, which you can find here,

Zak went 3-3 in picks with 1 method for 4 points.

Matt went 4-2 in picks with 1 method for 5 points.

Points To Date:

Zak: 153 (103-57)

Matt: 140 (92-62)

*All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook on 8/11

Graphic Credits to UFC via eventbrite.com

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Islam Makhachev vs

Ian Machado Garry

Welterweight Championship

(Makhachev -350)

Zak Drapeau -

This fight has gotten so much traction because "people" say Garry could finally be the one to defeat Makhachev thanks to the huge size difference, Garry's ability to defend takedowns and his striking advantage over the champ. To me though, Garry has better than average defense but not elite and I'm really not so sure he's that much better on his feet than Makhachev is.

Here's the thing, Garry's best striking performances have all come against guys who aren't pushing the pressure the way Makhachev certainly will. You could argue that Belal Muhammad was in Garry's face for the first two rounds and still missed all 7 takedown attempts but that's a flimsy argument at best. Garry's only fight that he's been in comparable to what will happen this weekend was against Shavkat when he got smoked.

Makhachev is smaller yes, but he is the most complete fighter in the UFC and this fight is going 5 rounds, where Makhachev is 8-0 and Garry is 1-1. The only way Garry wins is if he knocks out Islam and Garry's last KO was over 3 years ago against D-Rod. I believe Makhachev stands and bangs for a little but grabs 3 or 4 takedowns before a RNC finish in the 4th.

Prediction: Makhachev by Sub

Matt Hylen-

If you’ve read our previous articles, you’ll know that I think this fight is going to be the upset of the year and possibly the decade. I really think we are going to see Islam Makachev meet his match and lose his title.

Ian Machado Garry is the toughest test Makachev has faced to date. He is extremely tall and lanky for the division, with his takedown defense being arguably the best in the entire UFC. He can beat you anywhere the fight goes; his striking is next level with a very solid ground game. Garry just seems too big for Islam to be able to control on the ground.

With that said, this fight should be extremely close; I wouldn’t be shocked if it is a split decision. Of course I won’t be shocked if Islam dominated this fight and submits Garry within a round or two. Yet, I think Garry will have prepared a exactly the way he needs to in order to win this fight and upset the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world.

Prediction: Garry by Decision

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Mackenzie Dern vs

Gillian Robertson

Strawweight Championship

(Dern -230)

Zak Drapeau -

It's crazy to believe that Mackenzie Dern is finally making her first title defense nearly 10 months after winning the championship in a division where neither of the fighters are actually in the best in said-division. She's defending against Gillian Robertson who alone is a great fighter in the prime of her career but is really only getting this shot because everyone else is injured or on different time tables.

Nonetheless this should actually be a scrappy fight between two high-level fighters in their first real title matches who both have good stand up but elite grappling. I don't see either woman winning by submission although Dern will likely get a lot of control time and maybe even backpack for a round or two. The majority of the fight should be standing though and I'd have to give the edge to Dern in that regard.

Prediction: Dern by Decision

Matt Hylen-

A lot of people aren’t excited for this fight, which absolutely baffles me. Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson are so stylistically similar that it might come down to who can out strike the other.

With Dern and Robertson being the elite grapplers they are, this fight might stay on tje feet a lot more than people expect. I think both Dern and Robertson will be hesitant to shoot takedowns early on considering the fact that their opponent is that good on the ground.

So, if I am going to have to decide who’s striking is better, I might have to lean with Dern. Would I be saying this a few years ago? Definitely not, but Dern’s striking has improved massively over the years. I think she can pick Robertson apart on the feet, which will ultimately set her up for takedowns as the fight goes on.

Prediction: Dern by Decision

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Edson Barboza vs

Esteban Ribovics

(Ribovics -550)

Zak Drapeau -

Ribovics is one of the highest-volume strikers in the UFC and has a propensity of winning Fight of the Night awards. Barboza on the other hand is every bit as clinical of a kickboxer but just hit 40 and isn't the same fighter he used to be.

Barboza hasn't won a fight in almost 3 years and lost his last 3 while looking older and worse in each one. Ribovics has been in incredible fights and only lost to Haqparast and Gamrot in the last 3 years. Better yet, it seems like he has only lost to wrestlers who threaten level changes. His ability to push a pace and land with power should spell early trouble for Barboza who just doesn't have it anymore and will get his lights turned out. If this is his last go-around, what a career it's been.

Prediction: Ribovics by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen-

In all honesty, this fight shouldn’t be that close. I’m not really sure why Edson Barbosa is getting a fight if this caliber at this point in his career, but here we are.

Sure, Barbosa has some highlight-reel level potential, but the guy is over 40 facing a guy in his prime in Esteban Ribovics. Ribivics is extremely balanced in his style, with KO power and a nasty submission game if he needs it. I think Ribovics dominates this fight the entire way through. Barbosa is simply way past his prime and stands no chance against a guy knocking on the door of the rankings. Expect a Ribovics masterclass on Saturday night.

Prediction: Ribovics by TKO/KO

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Chidi Njokuani vs

Joel Alvarez

(Alvarez -260)

Zak Drapeau -

So it's no secret that this card is not very deep and this fight is where that all kind of starts. This is an interesting fight around the Top-20 of Welterweights sure but it's also just... forgettable. That being said, the aspect of Njokuani still trying to make it in the division after coming down from Middleweight and Alvarez in only his 2nd fight after his spell at Lightweight, can be cause for intrigue I guess?

Two of the biggest fighters in the division, (especially Njokuani) who should be set to tee off on each other for all 3 rounds. Neither of these guys have exceptional power at least compared to their stature but it's not out of the realm to see a knockout. Njokuani looks to be on more of a slump than Alvarez who had a nice streak going before being stopped by Amosov which I can't really take a lot away from. It's a coin flip on whether Alvarez wins by decision or stoppage but I'll go for a dragged out decision.

Prediction: Alvarez by Decision

Matt Hylen-

If Joel Alvarez wasn’t taking this fight on a week’s notice, I would’ve said this fight was one sided. Yet, with the lack of preparation in the Alvarez camp, I think Chidi Njokuani stands a good chance to get back on track and with this fight.

Alvarez and Njokuani have a similar style. They both are heavy hands and love to fight on the front foot, but can take you down if needed. They are both coming off tough losses their last time out, making the stakes that much higher for both sides.

Despite the short notice though, I think Alvarez gets back on track. He was dominating before his last loss to Yaroslav Amosov, which I think he can absolutely rebound from with a significantly worse opponent in Njokuani.

Prediction: Alvarez by TKO/KO

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Vicenthe Luque vs

Treseason Gore

(Gore -125)

Zak Drapeau -

My only shot at picking an underdog on this card but should Luque really even be the underdog? Tresean Gore definitely has unbelievably high jiu-jitsu but he's shown that his striking just isn't up to par and that he still isn't ready to fight even the middle of this division.

Luque has been on a slow decline yes, but he's still a wily veteran of the sport with a lot of top-level experience and very good jiu jitsu and wrestling as well. Luque will be making his second appearance at 185 where he already smashed Kelvin Gastelum. Neither of these guys will use this fight as a stepping stone to be ranked or anything like that but for Luque, this fight seems much more of a prove-it fight for a fighter I could easily see make one last career resurgence.

Prediction: Luque by Decision

Matt Hylen-

This fight doesn’t really excite me that much, but at least the level of commotion is pretty similar. Neither fighter is that good; Vicente Luque is WAY past his prime and Treseason Gore just lacks the skill and technical aspect of his striking to be considered a high level fighter.

Since these if these guys likely won’t make any sort of upward push with a win, I’m going to go with the younger guy who I think has the power advantage. He may not be good on the ground or in his defense, but Gore does have the level of power to put anyone out. I’m going to back on Lique being washed and Gore finding that big punch that can send Luque to the ground.

Prediction: Gore by TKO/KO

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Jeremiah Wells vs

Mytybek Orolbai

(Orolbai -900)

Zak Drapeau -

I believe that Orolbai is a "fringe" boogeyman tier of the Welterweight division because if he's still getting fights with the likes of Jeremiah Wells, people in that 15-25 range most definitely ducking him and I can understand why. Orolbai is a dominator who uses his wrestling and cardio to drown fighters and usually put them away early. Since moving up from Lightweight, Orolbai knocked out Hermansson in the 1st round then achieved the 3r highest takedown count in a fight with 19 against Chris Curtis. The only tricky thing about this fight will be if he will repeat the former or the latter on Wells.

I know I didn't talk about Wells at all and if that's disrespectful I'm sorry, but this fight will be so one-sided I hope you all understand why.

Prediction: Orolbai by Submission

Matt Hylen-

I have zero clue why this fight isn’t on the main card, but this should be another dominant showing from Mytybek Orolbai. Orolbai is the best unranked fighter in this division. His hands are nasty but he is a grapple first fighter with a nasty submission game. His elbows on the feet and ground are deveststing, which I think he can use to his advantage in this fight against Jeremiah Wells.

Wells isn’t a bad fighter per se, but he isn’t near the level of Orolbai. Wells has good power and decent overall striking, but his defense and ground game is not very good. I think Orolbai will use his elite striking to set up a takedown and get this fight finished within a round.

Prediction: Orolbai by Submission

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