Predicting UFC Fight Night 266

Zak Drapeau
2 hours ago
8 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 2/7/2026

Last Week for UFC 325, Zak went 6-1 and Matt went 6-1, with Matt predicting 3 correct methods and Zak picking 2.

Points-to-Date:

Zak: 15 (11-2)

Matt: 15 (10-3)

9 Mario Bautista vs

11 Vinicius Oliveira

(Bautista -140)

Zak Drapeau

Unfortunately, this Main Event won't get nearly enough praise as it should because it will be a fantastic fight.

Bautista is coming into this fight after losing for the first time in 9 fights, while Oliveira is undefeated in 5 UFC fights. Both fighters have faced a pretty similar level of competition so far, and both are physically about the same as well, so it's pretty appropriate that the lines are close to even.

Bautista is the slight favorite in this one, but I'm going to take Oliveira for the upset. Oliveira has shown significant improvements in his takedown defense, and even though I don't really see either man with a wrestle-first game plan, Oliveira holds an advantage in my eyes in controlling the distance and where the fight ends up, especially if things get grimy in the later rounds.

Prediction: Oliveira by Decision

Matt Hylen

I cannot wait for this fight. Like Zak said, this matchup is getting extremly underhyped, but in my eyes, whoever wins this fight will put their name right into title contention next.

For Mario Bautista, he is one of the more underrated fighters in this division. He's extremely well rounded, making him a tough matcjup against strikers and grapplers alike. He also is a very high volume striker with a great pace and gas tank. With that said, he is prone to over-clinching and cage holding whenever he is getting out striked, which could be a problem against Oliveira.

As for Vinicius Oliveira, he is a crazy crafty striker with dangerous KO ability. He does throw some crazy punches and kicks, but it's worked out for him thus far. He reminds me of a lower weightclass Michael Venom Page in the way they he is a puzzle to figure out and will taunt you all the way through. What I am interested to see is how he reponds if Bautista chooses to attempt a takedown. He is not the greatest of grapplers, but has improved over time, so we'll see if Baustita tries to exploit that.

With that said, I like Oliveira to get the job done. It will be far from easy, but I think Bautista's biggest flaw is facing a striker better than him. In my eyes, if Bautista cannot get this fight to thr ground, it'll be a long fight for him.

Prediction: Oliveira by TKO/KO

6 Amir Albazi vs

8 Kyoji Horiguchi

(Horiguchi -360)

Zak Drapeau

Horiguchi opened as a HUGE favorite before the game after returning to the UFC with a dominant win over Ulanbekov in November. He is rightfully on a heater, winning 6 in a row with a No Contest in the middle since his days in Rizin and Bellator.

On the opposite side is Amir Albazi, who has only fought twice in the last 2 and a half years, including a loss to Brandon Moreno, where the former champion won in dominant fashion.

So here's my controversial pick of the article: I'm going with the underdog again. Albazi hasn't won a fight since June of 2023, yes, but he is a very skilled fighter with a huge reach advantage that should keep Horiguchi off of him and force the fight to stay standing, where I believe Albazi has a slight advantage.

Prediction: Albazi by Decision

Matt Hylen

I also rate this fight as a sort of title contender fight for whoever wins. It is definitely a mix of styles, so my expectations for action are not the highest, but it'll be interesting to see how this striker vs. grappler matchup pans out.

Amir Albazi is not known to be the most entertaining fighter in the sport, but he's a darn good one. When he gets you on the ground, it is extremely difficult to get back up. He is high-paced, but tends to be more of a control grappler than a submission artist. My biggest concern for Albazi is his urgency; not only is he extremely inactive, but his last couple of fights lacked any sense of urgency in my mind.

As for Kyoji Horiguchi, this guy is a stud. Even though he is on the older side, he is still an extremely dangerous striker with an insane motor. His hands are among the fastest in the division, which he uses to hunt you down and knock you out. Not only that, but Horiguchi is also great on the ground with a great submission ability.

I honestly think Horiguchi dominates this one. He is the more well-rounded fighter, making him much more dangerous in my mind than Albazi. I just do not see this one being that competitive.

Prediction: Horiguchi by TKO/KO

6 Jailton Almeida vs

Rizvan Kuniev

(Almeida -160)

Zak Drapeau

Jailton Almeida is taking this fight on just three weeks' notice against a non-ranked DANGEROUS striker like Kuniev. This fight really doesn't make sense for Almeida in my eyes, with so much to lose and so little to gain, but I guess it proves he's a gamer and will fight anyone.

Kuniev hadn't lost a fight in 10 years before Curtis Blaydes beat him by split decision last summer and will now look to once again challenge a guy at the top of the UFC's heavyweight division, a good sign that the UFC really believes in this 33-year-old prospect.

Kuniev has great takedown defense, but Almeida is a grappling beast and should be able to get him down more than once. It may be harder for Almeida to really get a groove going based on Kuniev's toughness and boxing, but I think in the end he will and may even finish the fight to prove the Volkov fight was a fluke.

Prediction: Almeida by submission

Matt Hylen

This fight will either be an absolute banger or one of the more boring fights of the year. Either way, this fight does not go the distance.

Looking at Jailton Almeida, he is a bit of a boring fighter, but can submit you at any point. If he shoots a takedown and lands it, you are not getting up, it's as simple as that. His ability to control his opponent on the ground is next to none in this division. Basically, Almeida is the type of fighter to shoot a takedown within the first 30 seconds of the round and keep you there the rest of the round until he finds a submission or the round ends.

As for Rizvan Kuniev, I think he is extremely underrated. He has decent speed for the division, with good stamina and grappling to go along with it. He reminds me of a more evolved Shamil Gaziev with a better gas tank. I honestly think he's a top 5-7 heavyweight in the sport, with a unique opportunity to showcase that on Saturday night.

Though I think Almeida will have his moments, I think Kuniev is the better overall fighter. He has what it takes to keep Almeida from achieving his inevitable game plan, which I think will allow him to get a few shots in that could make Almeida uncomfortable.

Prediction: Kuniev by Decision

Michal Oleksiejczuk vs

Marc-Andre Barriault

(Oleksiejczuk -500)

Zak Drapeau

This one is pretty straightforward, and even though Oleksiejczuk's -500 line is pretty heavy, he's the favorite for a reason. Winning by impressive knockout in two fights in a row, Michal Oleksiejczuk should have this in the bag.

Andre Barriault is a gamer and a true veteran of the roster, but his best days are behind him, and even when he was on the right side of 30, he wasn't too impressive at this stage.

Prediction: Oleksiejczuk by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen

While I agree with Zak and think the line is a little extreme, this fight should be over within the three rounds. With that said, this could go either way for me if either of these fighters lands a big shot.

Since joining The Fighting Nerds, Michal Oleksiejczuk is starting to have a major career turnaround. As someone who was more just fed to prospects, he has put himself in a position to start an upward trend again. A dangerous KO artist, Oleksiejczuk has crisp, powerful hands that can finish any fighter.

As for Marc-Andre Barriault, he's a great clinch fighter who wants to pin you against the cage and deal damage in the pocket. However, if he's unable to do that, his chin is extremely weak, which has caused him to get knocked out on multiple occasions.

I think it'll take longer than people think, but I am going to go with Oleksiejczuk in this one. His newly found KO power hit the jackpot against the non-existent chin of Barriault.

Prediction: Oleksiejzuk by TKO/KO

Jean Matsumoto vs

Farid Basharat

(Basharat -320)

Zak Drapeau

Another big favorite in this one for Farid Basharat, who holds a pretty significant grappling advantage and a 3" reach advantage.

This will be a technical battle between two guys climbing up the 135 ranks with equally balanced skill sets. Where I see a game plan coming out will be Basharat's takedowns, seeing as Matsumoto's opponents have averaged over 4 takedowns in his 4 UFC fights.

This fight could be a nail-biter right up until the final bell with clean boxing and scrambles from both men. At the end of the day, though, I believe the undefeated Basharat will keep his momentum and earn a ranked fight for the future.

Prediction: Basharat by Decision

Matt Hylen

This is a fight I am extremely excited about. I think this has upset potential written all over it.

For Jean Matsumoto, he is extremely fast-paced with a smothering style. He never steps off the gas at any point, which benefits him considering the accuracy with which he throws his punches. With that said, he is a little pillow-fisted and does not possess a natural sort of KO power.

For Farid Basharat, he is a well-rounded fighter with good volume striking on the feet. His ability on the feet can open up takedowns, for which he will then control the fight the rest of the way through. The issue with Basharat is that he is not great at finishing fights, but rather tends to do just enough to win.

I think Matsumoto can shock a lot of people in this fight. His motor and constant smothering could overwhelm Basharat and throw him off his game. Yes, Basharat is undefeated for a reason, but I think Matsumoto could wrestle with Basharat and force him into a war.

Prediction: Matsumoto by Decision

12 Wang Cong vs

13 Eduarda Moura

(Cong -340)

Zak Drapeau

Our final fight is another heavy favorite, but I'm not so sure it should be. Wang Cong has been rising up the ranks in the Flyweight division, capping it off with two sensational wins in her last two fights.

But then again... so has Eduarda Moura. Becoming one of the most impressive wrestlers in the division, Moura's only professional loss in 13 fights was by split decision in 2024, and since then, she has also won 2 in a row.

Cong has looked so dominant lately and has tremendous takedown defense, defending all 7 her opponents have shot on her. Moura should finally break that streak but may not be able to keep her down, and with both standing, Cong has a clear advantage. I think this might actually come down to a split decision, but I'll hesitantly take Cong still.

Prediction: Cong by Decision

Matt Hylen

I am going to have to disagree with Zak on this one; I like this line in favor of Wang Cong. Though Moura is no slouch, I think Wang Cong could be one of the up-and-coming contenders within the division.

To put it simply, Cong is an incredible kickboxer. There are very few fighters in this division that have better kickboxing ability than Wang Cong, making her extremely dangerous against any fighter. Her Taekwondo is also great, which only adds to her lethal ability.

As for Edmuards Moura, she basically has the exact same style as Jailton Almeida. If she gets you to the ground, you are not getting back out; however, she does sometimes have a hard time doing so whenever she faces a good striker.

I think this fight will be another dominant victory for Cong. Her style clashes against Moura in the best way, which I think will make it difficult for Moura to do anything in this fight.

Prediction: Cong by Decision