Ranking The Last Ten #1 Overall NBA Draft Picks
- Joel Piton
- 15 minutes ago
- 9 min read
The expectation for first overall picks has never been higher, and for good reason. When you zoom out and examine the last decade of No. 1 overall picks, it looks like a generational wave of talent, with historic expectations added on to match. The draft has produced stars before in the past, but the density of franchise players concentrated into a single era has been flustering. These aren’t just good players or even perennial All-Stars. Many of these No. 1 picks have the potential to be the face of the league one day. The gap between “best case scenario” and reality has been unusually small for a remarkable number of these players.
It does create a problem, however, when it comes to evaluations. When multiple No. 1 picks simultaneously possess Hall of Fame upside, comparisons become messy. The NBA is always searching for its next standard, and when it's given to us in bunches like this, the overlap of the talent makes ranking them both compelling and nearly impossible. With that in mind, let’s go back through the last decade of No. 1 overall selections and attempt to sort out a group of players whose ceilings are so high that ranking could change by next Tuesday—and honestly, that’s not even an exaggeration.
Markelle Fultz (PHI) — 2017
Age: 27
Height: 6'4"
Position: PG
Career Stats: 10.4 PPG · 3.2 RPG · 4.4 APG · 47.0% FG
Markelle Fultz’s career never followed the path it was supposed. Entering the league after a dominant collegiate season at Washington, Fultz was viewed as an insane three-level scorer and a lead guard with clear star upside, as well as the missing piece for a Philadelphia squad looking to do better than Jerryd Bayless. With a core of lottery picks featuring Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor, and Ben Simmons, the Sixers had apparently hit the draft jackpot. Instead, Fultz's early years became defined by injuries, mechanical changes to his jumper, and the pressure of expectations that never happened.
While Fultz showed promise during stretches as Orlando’s primary point guard in 2020 and again in 2023—consistency remained elusive. Without a reliable outside shot, defenses were able to limit his offensive impact, and the emergence of Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony reduced his role. Subsequent stints failed to reignite momentum, and what once looked like an unusually long run toward stardom ultimately faded out entirely. Fultz did carve out meaningful moments, but relative to the expectations attached to the top pick, and in comparison to the rest of the guys on this list, the gap is massive.
Zaccharie Risacher (ATL) — 2024
Age: 20
Height: 6'8"
Position: SF
2025-26 Stats: 10.4 PPG · 3.6 RPG · 1.3 APG · 44.1% FG
At 20, Zaccharie Risacher remains early in his development, but for now, his trajectory suggests a player still searching for separation within this group. The French wing projects as a reliable catch-and-shoot scorer and perimeter threat with the ability to score in bursts, yet much of his overall impact remains theoretical. Questions about his defensive consistency, playmaking, and rebounding have fueled the criticism that Atlanta may have selected a glorified role player first overall rather than a clear franchise guy.
That said, Risacher delivered a solid rookie season and showed enough offensive promise to keep the long-term outlook window open. He has time—and the tools—to climb this list, but at this stage, the proof of star-level impact hasn’t fully arrived.
Deandre Ayton (PHX) — 2018
Age: 27
Height: 7'0"
Position: C
2025-26 Stats: 13.2 PPG · 8.5 RPG · 1.0 APG · 66.7% FG
In hindsight, Deandre Ayton likely doesn’t go No. 1 in a redraft, but that doesn’t erase what has been a productive NBA career. A consistent force on the glass, Ayton has averaged a double-double across seven straight seasons and proven he can impact winning as a starting center in different roles. Whether serving as a secondary option or embracing his current role as a rim-running lob-threat, Ayton can adapt.
Focusing primarily on interior scoring this season, he’s delivering efficient production, posting 13 points and 8 rebounds on a career-best 66% from the field while filling a clear positional need for a playoff team. There remains a lingering sense that another leap could push him from good to great, but even without that jump, Ayton has established himself as a reliable, starting-caliber five throughout his career.
Ben Simmons (PHI) — 2016
Age: 29
Height: 6'10"
Position: PF
Career Stats: 13.1 PPG · 7.4 RPG · 7.2 APG · 55.8% FG
Although out of the league at 29, it doesn’t erase how impactful Ben Simmons once was. After missing his rookie season, Simmons entered the league as one of the most unique and complete players in recent memory—a 6’10” primary ball handler who could defend every position, push pace, and control games without a jumper.
His defensive impact quickly became his calling card. Simmons led the league in steals, earned three All-Star selections, and secured back-to-back All-Defensive First Team honors, establishing himself as one of the most disruptive defenders in basketball. For a stretch, he was a matchup nightmare capable of shaping a team’s identity on the defensive end.
But following a cold playoff exit and growing scrutiny around his offensive limitations, his trajectory shifted. Injuries, particularly recurring back spasms, significantly reduced his availability and production, with his scoring declining from 17 points per game to 6. Short stints in LA failed to restore momentum, leaving his future in the league uncertain now. Simmons’ career ultimately reflects both extremes: a player who reached elite impact early, and a reminder of how quickly circumstances can alter even the most promising paths. Could a jump shot really have changed everything?
Zion Williamson (NOP) — 2019
Age: 25
Height: 6'6"
Position: PF
2025-26 Stats: 21.9 PPG · 6.0 RPG · 3.5 APG · 58.5% FG
Few prospects have entered the NBA with more hype than Zion Williamson. A uniquely built power forward with historic explosiveness, Zion quickly proved the production matched the anticipation, peaking at 27 points per game at just 20 years old and earning one of the youngest All-Star starting selections ever. At his best, the Hall of Fame upside has never been in question. The challenge, however, has been health. Injuries have consistently interrupted his momentum, preventing him from sustaining full seasons or building long-term continuity with New Orleans. The flashes of skill are undeniable—efficient scoring, overwhelming dunks and game-changing athleticism—but they’ve come in limited windows.
The Pelicans have struggled to translate his talent into team success, and without extended healthy stretches — including the absence of a single playoff game, projection has begun to carry more weight than resume. Zion’s story is far from finished, but at this stage, the gap between what he has shown and what he was expected to become remains one of the most polarizing questions of this era of No. 1 picks.
Paolo Banchero (ORL) — 2022
Age: 23
Height: 6'10"
Position: PF
2025-26 Stats: 21.8 PPG · 8.5 RPG · 5.0 APG · 45.3% FG
Paolo Banchero is one of the most naturally gifted power forwards in the league. With scoring ability, mobility, advanced playmaking for his size, and improving defensive impact, Paolo possesses the type of all-around skill set that points toward a long successful career. When healthy, the pairing of Banchero and Franz Wagner has positioned Orlando as a consistent playoff-caliber team, largely driven by Paolo’s offensive gravity and ability to operate as a primary option. After producing roughly 26 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists last season, he appeared to be trending toward a true breakout before injuries disrupted his momentum.
This season has been questionable at times, with lower volume scoring and intermittent health setbacks, but the long-term outlook remains strong. The upside that made him the top pick is still very much intact, and with continued development and durability, further growth feels likely. Ranking him fifth speaks less to any shortcomings and more to the strength of this No. 1 overall group, which is a reflection of just how competitive this tier of talent actually is.
Cooper Flagg (DAL) — 2025
Age: 19
Height: 6'9"
Position: SF
2025-26 Stats: 20.4 PPG · 6.5 RPG · 4.1 APG · 48.2% FG
As the youngest player in the league, Cooper Flagg arrived far more NBA-ready than most rookies. Posting roughly 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists at just 18-19 years old, Flagg has already taken on primary responsibility for a Mavericks team navigating injuries and major roster changes. Dallas is short-handed—AD has been flipped, Kyrie has been ruled out for the remainder of the season, and a laundry list of other injuries. Despite this, Flagg has been given the keys early, and he’s responded with great play.
While team success hasn’t followed yet, his individual impact is clear; without his production, the Mavericks would be sitting at the bottom of the West. Flagg has been the bright spot and at an opportune time, showcasing scoring versatility, elite defensive instincts, and a willingness to carry offensive creation responsibilities. If this is the baseline as a rookie, the long-term outlook is extremely high, and it’s easy to envision a much more dangerous version of Flagg emerging over the next few seasons.
Cade Cunningham (DET) — 2021
Age: 24
Height: 6'6"
Position: PG
2025-26 Stats: 25.3 PPG · 5.8 RPG · 9.8 APG · 45.5% FG
Early debates once centered on who would emerge as the top player from the 2021 class between Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, and Cunningham. A few years later, that conversation has quieted as Cade has steadily established himself as Detroit’s franchise player. An oversized lead guard with elite playmaking, scoring versatility, and control of pace, Cunningham projects as the type of primary initiator teams build around for a decade. His ability to impact every phase of the offense has positioned him as the most promising young point-guard in the Eastern Conference.
Detroit’s rise from a 14-68 record just a few years ago to the best team in the East has fully mirrored Cade’s development, with his growth serving as the foundation for the team’s wins. As his efficiency and consistency continue to improve, the long-term ceiling is clear. At this stage, Cunningham is building the profile of a player who can and will define Detroit basketball and enter broader league-wide conversations as one of the premier guards of his generation.
Anthony Edwards — 2020
Age: 24
Height: 6'4"
Position: SG
2025-26 Stats: 29.6 PPG · 5.3 RPG · 3.7 APG · 49.3% FG
Long viewed as the potential future face of the league, Anthony Edwards is steadily growing into that conversation despite his reservation. One of the NBA’s most electric scorers, Edwards pairs elite athleticism with a competitive edge that continues to translate into year-to-year improvement. His scoring volume and efficiency have climbed each season, highlighted by career highs this season at around 29 points. Edwards has become the clear engine of Minnesota’s identity—the player who dictates how far the Timberwolves can go on any given night.
From eviscerating the reigning champ Denver Nuggets at 22 years old to insane game winners, Edwards has shown the ability to elevate his game on the biggest stages. When he’s aggressive, few players can match his combination of athleticism, scoring, and confidence. If this trajectory holds, Edwards is positioning himself as one of the defining athletes of his era, with the kind of skill and talent that will shape the league’s next chapter.
Victor Wembanyama (SA) — 2023
Age: 22
Height: 7'4"
Position: C
2025-26 Stats: 24.2 PPG · 11.3 RPG · 2.9 APG · 50.8% FG
Few prospects in basketball history have entered the league with expectations and skills comparable to Victor Wembanyama. A 7’5” superhuman with limitless range, elite mobility, and historic defensive instincts, Wembanyama immediately redefined what a modern basketball anomaly can look like. Already a multi-time All-Star and a dominant rim protector, Wembanyama has led the league in blocks by a significant margin while anchoring San Antonio’s rise into Western Conference title contention. His impact and influence on both ends of the game is something few players ever have.
Wembanyama is still a twenty-two-year-old kid, but the trajectory points toward historic territory. He doesn't just look like a future superstar, his ceiling suggests a player who could ultimately define an era and enter conversations reserved for the greatest the sport has ever seen. Wemby isn't just someone you can run a franchise through, he's someone who could headline the NBA.
I believe these rankings are fair for the time being, but history reminds us that development is rarely linear. More than anything, this exercise speaks to the league’s talent pipeline. It’s rare to see such a concentrated stretch of No. 1 overall picks with legitimate MVP ceilings. If you’re a fan of the game, this is the fun part. Watching expectations collide with reality. Is this list too early to make, or does it reflect where the league is heading? Did we get the order right, or will this look completely different in a few years?
The awards set to come in a few months could tell all, and most of these guys have given us a small sample-size. Until then, this is our snapshot—one that will likely age and entertain very well with time.
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Thanks for reading!
-Joel Piton
(@jpiton7)