Re-Drafting the 2021 NBA Draft: Who Climbs, Who Falls?

Joel Piton
Aug 5
13 min read

Updated: Aug 14

It’s only been four years since the name Cade Cunningham echoed across the draft stage—but the 2021 class has already given us multiple stars and sleepers, as well as straight-up vanishing acts. Some prospects rose up and met their hype perfectly—or even exceeded expectations. College standouts like Cade and Mobley have been labeled franchise players, racking up accolades from the get go. High school phenoms like Josh Christopher and Sharife Cooper? No longer even in the league.

While it’s still early—and most of these players are just scratching the surface—we took a hard look at the numbers. Beyond the obvious stats, we used advanced metrics including player efficiency rating (PER), usage rate, and box plus-minus (BPM) to determine who’s made the most of their opportunities and who hasn’t.

So here it is: a fresh look at the first round of one of the deepest classes in recent memory—the 2021 NBA Draft, redone from the top down.

Cade Cunningham

Actual Position — No. 1

Career Stats — 22.1 PPG, 7.4 APG, 5.4 RPG, 44.6 FG%

Cunningham has the tools to become the face of the league one day. At 6'6", he’s an oversized point guard with elite basketball IQ, a silky-smooth midrange jumper, and the vision to pick defenses apart. He sees over the top with ease and makes reads like a seasoned vet, finishing 4th in the league in assists at 9.1 per game. Now finally past the injuries that slowed his start, Cade looks ready to take that leap—and the sky’s the limit.

Evan Mobley

Actual Position — No. 3

Career Stats — 16.4 PPG, 2.9 APG, 9.0 RPG, 54.8 FG%

Defensive Player of the Year recipient Evan Mobley is a do-it-all machine—an elite rim protector who can score, pass, and stretch the floor. He can swat shots into the cheap seats and defend in the post, and his jump shooting improved all season long. He quietly knocked down 85 threes—up from just 22 the year prior. That shooting leap is a good sign, but it’s only the beginning. Cleveland has found its franchise power forward—one with a relentless work ethic and a future filled with All-Defensive selections.

Alperen Sengün

Actual Position — No. 16

Career Stats — 16.0 PPG, 4.1 APG, 8.6 RPG, 51.8 FG%

Some might call this a reach—but if the last two seasons are any indication, Sengün is well on his way to becoming an offensive force. Drawing strong comparisons to Sabonis and Jokic, he’s a crafty, high-IQ big man who can score, rebound, and dish the rock—all at nearly seven feet tall. A double-double machine with soft touch from around 15 feet, Sengün also uses his 245-pound frame to bully defenders in the post. His bag is deep, and with Houston pairing him with a Hall of Famer in Kevin Durant, he's only going to work harder.

Franz Wagner

Actual Position — No. 8

Career Stats — 19.1 PPG, 3.7 APG, 4.8 RPG, 47.4 FG%

Franz wasted no time making his mark, stepping in as a true three-level scorer from day one. He averaged 24 points per game last season—even while battling through an oblique injury—and looked like a threat every time he touched the ball. But scoring isn’t all he brings. Wagner is a smart, willing passer and a matchup nightmare at 6'10", using his size and length to give smaller wings fits on both ends. His stats and player efficiency rating have climbed each year—and if that trend continues, it’s terrifying to think how good he might become.

Jalen Green

Actual Position — No. 2

Career Stats — 20.1 PPG, 3.4 APG, 4.6 RPG, 42.2 FG%

Jalen Green caught heat for disappearing offensively during Houston’s first-round playoff exit—but make no mistake, he’s still a bucket. With a 47-inch vertical, a silky-smooth offensive arsenal, and deep shooting range, Green has the tools to light up the scoreboard. The issue? That might be all he brings right now. His efficiency remains inconsistent, and we’ve yet to see him dominate when it really matters. At just 23, there’s still plenty of time for growth—but for now, Green slides a bit from his original No. 2 selection.

Scottie Barnes

Actual Position — No. 4

Career Stats — 17.2 PPG, 5.0 APG, 7.5 RPG, 46.6 FG%

The first All-Star from this class, Scottie Barnes embodies positionless basketball. At 6'7", he does a little bit of everything—scoring with solid efficiency, facilitating as an above-average passer, and showing steady growth as a defender. While his inconsistent three-point shooting can make his offensive game a bit predictable at times, Barnes is still a legitimate triple-double threat every night. He’s been Toronto’s most valuable piece since arriving—and he’s only getting better.

Austin Reaves

Actual Position — Undrafted

Career Stats — 14.5 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.8 RPG, 48.1 FG%

From undrafted afterthought to rising star, Austin Reaves’ journey has been nothing short of inspirational. He emerged as the Lakers’ most efficient and consistent scorer this season, always seeming to take the right shots at the right time—and making them count. With a surprisingly deep offensive bag that includes crafty crossovers, pull-up threes, and fearless drives, Reaves has solidified himself as a legitimate 20+ PPG threat. The best part? He’s just getting started. I think number seven is a good spot for him.

Cam Thomas

Actual Position — No. 27

Career Stats — 15.1 PPG, 2.1 APG, 2.6 RPG, 43.9 FG%

Cam Thomas might not be “slept on” by real hoop fans, but casuals might not realize just how dangerous he’s been in Brooklyn. With a record-breaking number of 40-point games and the ability to drop 20 in a single half, his scoring ability is serious. Once the Nets’ superteam era ended, Thomas was handed the keys to the team's offense—and he’s run with them, becoming the team’s go-to option. After a season hampered by injuries, all eyes are on what he can do next with a Brooklyn squad that’s finally looking competitive again.

Josh Giddey

Actual Position — No. 6

Career Stats — 14.1 PPG, 7.5 APG, 6.1 RPG, 46.4 FG%

Josh Giddey’s move to Chicago came as a surprise, but he’s kept his head down and continued to produce despite the noise. At 6'8", he’s a true point forward and a nightly triple-double threat—facilitating, rebounding, and contributing on both ends of the floor. Giddey’s already one of the most versatile and useful players on the court, and if he continues to elevate his defense, he could become a full-blown matchup nightmare across the league.

Trey Murphy III

Actual Position — No. 17

Career Stats — 13.7 PPG, 1.8 APG, 3.9 RPG, 45.4 FG%

Trey Murphy III had a breakout year, even while battling through injuries. He wrapped up the season averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists—providing a much-needed offensive spark to a Pelicans team constantly fighting just to stay healthy. Murphy is already one of the league’s premier knockdown shooters, but what really sets him apart is his above average vertical and ability to play well above the rim. At 6'8", he's also capable of playing inside, gliding to the basket with ease, giving him true three-level scoring potential. If he stays healthy, he could be one of the most complete offensive wings in the league for years to come.

Jalen Suggs

Actual Position — No. 5

Career Stats — 12.3 PPG, 3.3 APG, 3.3 RPG, 41.9 FG%

Former Gonzaga star Jalen Suggs has carved out a reputation as a defensive pest since entering the league. He’s not known for lighting up the scoreboard, but as a scrappy combo guard, Suggs has become Orlando’s best perimeter defender when healthy. A knee injury derailed what was shaping up to be his best offensive season yet, but the flashes were there. The shooting efficiency still needs work, but at just 23, there’s plenty of time for Suggs to round out his game. Orlando pretty much struck out taking him at five given Franz, but it's hard to imagine him going there in a do-over.

Jalen Johnson

Actual Position — No. 20

Career Stats — 11.0 PPG, 2.6 APG, 6.3 RPG, 50.4 FG%

Jalen Johnson went from a quiet bench player to a breakout star during the 2024–25 season. A devastating shoulder injury cut his campaign short after just 36 games, breaking the hearts of Hawks fans—but not before Johnson showed what he’s truly capable of. He averaged career highs across the board: 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists on 50% shooting. He played fearless, brought energy on both ends, and looked like the future of Atlanta’s frontcourt. If he returns to form, the league better take notice.

Jonathan Kuminga

Actual Position — No. 7

Career Stats — 12.5 PPG, 1.8 APG, 4.0 RPG, 50.7 FG%

Jonathan Kuminga’s tug-of-war with Golden State has been tough to watch, but whoever lands him next could be getting a high-flying forward with untapped star potential. There’s still belief that Kuminga can develop into a 20+ PPG scorer. His athleticism is already elite, but his jump shot showed real signs of growth before his injury, and he was starting to emerge as a legitimate perimeter threat. Defensively, he’s still inconsistent. At 6'7" with a strong motor, he should be a force on that end—but whether he chooses to lock in and make that leap remains to be seen.

Quentin Grimes

Actual Position — No. 25

Career Stats — 10.4 PPG, 2.0 APG, 3.1 RPG, 44.4 FG%

Quentin Grimes has quietly bounced around a few teams, but one thing remains clear: he’s a bucket. Watch the tape and you’ll see the confidence, poise, and fearlessness every time he goes to score. During a short stint on an injury-depleted Philly squad, Grimes erupted for 22 points, 5 assists, and 4 rebounds—showing flashes of the offensive talent he’s always had. Maybe all he needed was the right system—or the right opportunity—to truly shine.

Herbert Jones

Actual Position — No. 35

Career Stats — 10.1 PPG, 3.8 APG, 2.5 RPG, 47.7 FG%

Another second rounder that exceeded expectations. Defensive specialist Herb Jones has been on a mission to show he’s more than just a clamp god—and when healthy, he absolutely is. Though injuries limited his season, Jones flashed real playmaking ability in New Orleans, adding layers to his basketball IQ. But let’s be real—his calling card is still defense. The intimidation factor is unreal. At just 24 years old, he earned First Team All-Defense and has already cemented himself as one of the league’s premier perimeter wings. You do not want this man guarding you.

Santi Aldama

Actual Position — No. 30

Career Stats — 9.8 PPG, 1.9 APG, 5.2 RPG, 45.9 FG%

A 7'0" power forward with textbook shooting mechanics, Santi Aldama moves, shoots, and passes like a guard. He served as an excellent backup to Jaren Jackson Jr. this season, posting career highs in both points and field goal percentage—even while taking on a larger offensive load. The one knock? His defense. For someone his size, Aldama’s presence on that end is surprisingly minimal. But at just 24, there’s still plenty of room—and time—for growth. If he puts in the work this offseason, he could take a serious leap.

Jose Alvarado

Actual Position — Undrafted

Career Stats — 7.5 PPG, 2.7 APG, 2.2 RPG, 42.0 FG%

"Grand Theft Alvarado" went undrafted four years ago—and now he’s one of the most feared defensive point guards in the league. At just 6'0", the former Georgia Tech standout has a knack for pick-pocketing ball handlers and disrupting offenses with relentless energy. Somehow, his game translated perfectly to the NBA despite his size. If not for Dejounte Murray’s arrival, Alvarado felt like the clear choice to take over as New Orleans’ primary point guard. Either way, he remains one of the league’s best defensive pests off the bench.

Aaron Wiggins

Actual Position — No. 55

Career Stats — 8.6 PPG, 1.3 APG, 3.2 RPG, 50.4 FG%

Contrary to popular belief, Aaron Wiggins is far more than just a “40-point wonder.” Despite a reduced role in the playoffs, OKC wouldn’t be the same squad without him. The newly crowned NBA champion anchored the bench all season, posting career highs of 12 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He brought consistency, energy, and efficiency to every shift. It’s wild to think a player this steady and productive somehow slipped all the way to pick No. 55.

Tre Mann

Actual Position — No. 18

Career Stats — 9.4 PPG, 2.3 APG, 2.8 RPG, 41.1 FG%

Tre Mann holds steady near his original spot at 18—and for good reason. The baggy shorts, the Iverson flair—there’s just something exciting about his game. Though limited to only 13 appearances this season (and just 28 the year before), Mann was tough to guard during his time in Charlotte. He averaged 14 points off the bench while shooting over 40% from deep, injecting life into one of the league’s worst teams. If the Hornets commit to giving him real minutes, they might’ve found something special.

Ayo Dosunmu

Actual Position — No. 38

Career Stats — 10.2 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.9 RPG, 50.2 FG%

It would be a crime to let Ayo Dosunmu slip past the top 20. Before a shoulder injury cut his season short, Dosunmu had cemented himself as a key part of Chicago’s rotation—just like every year prior. Whether starting or coming off the bench, Ayo consistently makes the most of his opportunities. He posted career highs in both scoring and PER this season, all while handling an increased usage rate. At 6'5", he brings valuable size to the point guard spot and finishes with a soft touch around the rim. His three-point shot made a huge leap this year—though the shoulder injury could impact that going forward. Time will tell.

Moses Moody

Actual Position — No. 14

Career Stats — 7.0 PPG, .9 APG, 2.2 RPG, 44.9 FG%

Moses Moody may have slid from 14 to 21, but make no mistake—his game is solid. While he’s not a high-volume scorer, Moody is easily one of the best pure shooters in this draft class. When Steve Kerr gives him the green light, he makes the most of it, showing poise and confidence well beyond his years. No doubt playing alongside Steph Curry has rubbed off—Moody has become a catch-and-shoot nightmare, finishing the season with career-best numbers from beyond the arc.

Corey Kispert

Actual Position — No. 15

Career Stats — 11.1 PPG, 1.5 APG, 2.8 RPG, 47.4 FG%

Former Gonzaga star Corey Kispert hasn’t generated major buzz during his NBA tenure, but he’s quietly carved out a consistent role as a reliable swingman in Washington. A knockdown shooter with a team-first mentality, Kispert played all 61 of his games off the bench this season—and embraced the role. He’s the kind of player who fills gaps, makes smart plays, and puts winning first. While No. 15 may have been a reach in hindsight, there’s no question Kispert still belongs in the first round.

Davion Mitchell

Actual Position — No. 9

Career Stats — 7.6 PPG, 1.8 APG, 3.3 RPG, 44.2 FG%

Davion Mitchell could easily be higher on this list—and he has every right to be. From day one, he’s been an NBA-ready defender, making a real impact for a Sacramento squad clawing its way back to playoff relevance. Over the years, Mitchell’s had to reset more than once, most recently landing in Miami—where his field goal percentage climbed and his shot selection noticeably improved. Still a tenacious, All-Defensive Team-caliber defender, Mitchell’s offensive game is finally starting to catch up. If that leap continues, this ranking might not age well.

Ziaire Williams

Actual Position — No. 10

Career Stats — 8.3 PPG, 1.3 APG, 4.6 RPG, 42.1 FG%

Ziaire Williams falls from his original No. 10 slot, but that doesn’t mean his future isn’t bright. He spent most of his early years buried on a deep Grizzlies roster, primarily serving as a wing defender and catch-and-shoot option. But since landing in Brooklyn, he’s been given the chance to expand his role—and he’s taken advantage. Williams posted career highs in both scoring and three-point percentage this past season. The tools are there, and with more opportunity, he could carve out a long, steady NBA career.

Keon Johnson

Actual Position — No. 21

Career Stats — 8.2 PPG, 1.9 APG, 2.7 RPG, 37.9 FG%

Keon Johnson doesn’t fall far from his original spot at No. 21, and it’s easy to see why: he’s a fearless scorer with a clear hunger to get buckets. But that aggressiveness can work against him, as his shot selection remains questionable and shows in his 37% field goal percentage. Still, scoring at the NBA level is no easy feat, and Johnson has shown he’s up for the challenge. With better decision-making and development, he could still carve out a meaningful role in a team’s rotation.

Sam Hauser

Actual Position — Undrafted

Career Stats — 7.4 PPG, .9 APG, 2.9 RPG, 45.1 FG%

Sharpshooter Sam Hauser played a crucial role in Boston’s championship run—and it's wild to think he had no draft consideration four years ago. Honestly, it’s hard to find 30 players in this draft class better than him. Hauser has shot over 40% from three in every single season of his four-year career. He’s a nightmare off the catch, capable of creating his own shot, and at 6'7", he brings legit size to the shooting guard spot. A budget Klay Thompson with zero drama, Hauser is a steal in any redraft.

Miles McBride

Actual Position — No. 36

Career Stats — 6.3 PPG, 1.8 APG, 1.5 RPG, 40.5 FG%

Miles McBride has flown under the radar while backing up Jalen Brunson in New York, but don’t let the quiet role fool you—he’s one of the best mid-range shooters in the league. A second-round pick turned postseason contributor, McBride’s work ethic and poise off the bench were vital to the Knicks’ deep playoff run. He may not have star-level minutes, but his impact is undeniable when his number is called.

Justin Champagnie

Actual Position — Undrafted

Career Stats — 6.1 PPG, .8 APG, 4.1 RPG, 48.7 FG%

It’s still unclear which of the Champagnie twins is the bigger steal—but Justin made the leap to the big stage first, and he’s quietly become a key piece for the Washington Wizards. Though he had limited playing time early on, he’s grown into a fundamental part of the rotation. Virtually positionless, Champagnie has the height of a shooting guard, the rebounding instincts of a power forward, and the agility of a small forward. Averaging 8 points per game may not jump off the page, but for an undrafted player doing it with this level of efficiency? That’s a steal.

Bones Hyland

Actual Position — No. 26

Career Stats — 9.5 PPG, 2.6 APG, 2.2 RPG, 39.8 FG%

Bones Hyland may not even be in the NBA next season—and hopefully, that doesn’t become reality. While EuroLeague teams have expressed interest, the 24-year-old has made it clear (via social media) that he lives in the gym. A former All-Rookie selection, Hyland has seen his minutes dwindle on playoff teams despite having clear scoring prowess. It’s a shame, because the offensive firepower is still there. All it takes is one team to wise up and give him the right opportunity.

Trendon Watford

Actual Position — Undrafted

Career Stats — 7.9 PPG, 1.9 APG, 3.6 RPG, 52.0 FG%

Trendon Watford going undrafted still feels like a shock, especially after a standout college career—but it never slowed him down. He’s been a steady contributor for both Portland and Brooklyn, attacking the basket with zero hesitation. At 6'8" with legit guard skills, Watford quietly posted career highs in both scoring and box plus-minus this season. One of the league’s more underrated and crafty bench fours, he’s the kind of player every rotation needs—even if it took teams a while to realize it.

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And there you have it—what the 2021 NBA Draft might look like today if every team had a second chance. From steep falls to inspirational climbs, and even a few undrafted gems breaking through the cracks, this class continues to prove just how deep and the NBA Draft is. While this is how things shake out right now, don’t be surprised if this entire list looks completely different in another four years.

Until then, one thing’s for sure: the 2021 draft class was—and still is—one hell of a ride.

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