Spanish Grand Prix Race Predictions: McLaren Dominance? Championship Shake Up?

Matt Hylen
May 31
5 min read

Updated: Jun 9

The cars driving around the Spanish Grand Prix track. C/O to formula1.com

Round 9 of the 2025 Formula 1 season is officially underway, and already it is starting to make some fireworks. With new front wing regulations being applied this weekend and going forward, all eyes will be on how the pecking order will change, if at all. McLaren still looks like the team to beat around this 66-lap circuit, with the likes of Mercedes, Ferrari, and Max Verstappen primed to upset the championship front-runners.

Before we get into my predictions, here is a look at how qualifying went Saturday morning:

Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
Lando Norris (McLaren)
Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
George Russell (Mercedes)
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
Isak Hadjar (VCARB)
Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
Alexander Albon (Williams)
Gabriel Bortoleto (Kick Sauber)
Liam Lawson (VCARB)
Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)*
Oliver Bearman (Haas)
Nico Hulkenberg (Kick Sauber)
Esteban Ocon (Haas)
Carlos Sainz (Williams)
Franco Colapinto (Alpine)
Yuki Tsunoda (Red Bull)

*Will Not Participate in Grand Prix

Note: Lance Stroll has withdrawn from the Spanish Grand Prix due to a wrist injury

VCARB Score Double Points Again

Liam Lawson on-track. C/O to autoaction.com.au

VCARB has looked very solid around Spain so far this weekend. Isak Hadjar continued his stellar form with another Q3 appearance, while Liam Lawson has looked much better than he did even a few races ago. Though it will be a big ask for Lawson, who starts 13th, I do not think it is completely off the table.

If Lawson had gone out for his last Q2 lap a little later than he did, it is likely that he would have squeezed into Q3, or at least come much closer. It seems like Lawson has some great pace this weekend, and considering his aggressive nature, I would not be shocked if he makes an early move to get ahead a couple of places.

As for Hadjar, VCARB needs to get the strategy right. They executed their strategy brilliantly last weekend in Monaco, and will need another good one if they are going to keep Hadjar in the points while also getting Lawson up there. With that said, their main competition has not looked great this weekend, so VCARB has a great opportunity to come out on top.

Fernando Alonso Scores His First Points of the Season at His Home Race

Fernando Alonso post-practice. C/O to pitdebrief.com

Fernando Alonso has arguably been the most unlucky driver this season. Though his zero points show otherwise, Fernando has outperformed his poor car on multiple occasions. However, a fair share of mechanical faults and aggressiveness by other drivers have cost him points in every race this season. I think that changes this weekend.

After securing a 10th place start for tomorrow's race, Alonso seems to be in great spirits with the lap time he put together. Aston Martin, pace-wise, has improved slightly over the past few weekends, allowing Alonso to put the car into Q3 once again. If Alonso can put on a defensive masterclass and if the car stays running, he has a very good chance of securing points. Plus, he wants to put on a show for his home crowd, which only adds extra motivation!

Williams goes Pointless

After a run of fantastic performances, Williams have struggled mightily so far this weekend. Their pace seems way off the expectation, as both drivers' confidence in the car seems to be down this weekend. With that in mind, this may be the weekend we see Williams take a step back.

Unfortunately for Carlos Sainz, he will be starting 17th at his home Grand Prix, which means points are likely off the table. Of course, anything is possible, but a lot would have to happen for Sainz, who already does not look quick, to make his way all the way up to points contention. As for Albon, points are much more likely, but he will have a lot of work to do. The car this weekend is far off the top 4 teams, and definitely slower than VCARB, Fernando Alonso's Aston Martin, and even Alpine.

Overall, a lot is working against Williams this weekend, causing me to believe that points might be a bit out of reach for both drivers in Spain.

Ferrari Take Over 2nd in the Constructors' Championship

Charles Leclerc (left) and Lewis Hamilton (right). C/O to f1oversteer.com

Ferrari looks good this weekend. Though they are neck and neck with Mercedes after qualifying, I have a feeling that their car will come alive during the race, propelling them over Mercedes come Sunday.

Ferrari is currently 4th in the Constructors' Championship, but is only 5 points behind Mercedes, who are in 2nd. As long as they execute a good strategy, Ferrari can absolutely overtake Mercedes and Red Bull, who have both shown vulnerability this weekend. Experience reigns supreme at a track like Spain, which Ferrari has over Mercedes in a big way. If both drivers keep things clean and make a couple of moves along the way, I think their pace will be better than Mercedes, thus giving them the edge in the standings post-race.

Lando Norris Wins the Spanish Grand Prix

Lando Norris after his win in Monaco. C/O to f1oversteer.com

Though his teammate Oscar Piastri bested him in qualifying by 2 tenths of a second, I think Lando Norris wins this race. Why? Because I think Lando has more to prove this weekend than Oscar does.

After winning in Monaco, Lando Norris seems to have gotten some of his confidence back that he had coming into the year. It was a much-needed win at a desperate time for Norris, whose performance strongly depends on his mental mindset. We all know Norris has the pace, IQ, and maneuvering of a championship-winning level driver, but it is all mental for him. A lot of times Norris will get frustrated with himself or get in his head whenever he does not perform to the expectation he sets for himself, thus lowering his performance as a whole. This is something we have seen over the past month, resulting in Norris losing the Drivers' Championship lead.

Norris needs to show that his mindset is officially back on track, and that he is still the biggest threat to take Max Verstappen's crown as Drivers' Champion. That can't happen by winning one race and then losing the next. He needs a string of dominant performances in order to get legitimately back on track.

With that in mind, I think Lando gets it done. McLaren's pace does not seem affected by the new regulations put in place this weekend, so that problem is out the window. It will all come down to whether or not Norris will have the guts to make a move on Piastri early, which I think happens come Sunday.