Thunder-Spurs Conference Finals Preview

by Zak Drapeau

Sportz Nation - 5/18/2026

Photo by Daniel Dunn via Imagn Images

1Thunder vs 2Spurs

(Thunder -250)

Overview

Before the NBA Playoffs even started, we all looked at this hypothetical matchup as the "Real Finals Series" and it's not hypothetical anymore. Ready to start tonight at 8:30 ET, this series will pit the bet two regular season teams and players this season.

Shai may have won his 2nd MVP award this season but Wembanyama was arguably just as worthy and led his Spurs to the 2nd best record in the NBA only behind the Thunder.

In the regular season, the Spurs defeated the Thunder in 4 of their 5 matchups. In those 5 games, the Thunder have actually done a great job neutralizing Wemby, with the French star averaging only 18 and 9 with 1 block. Good numbers on paper but noticeably slow for Wemby. In those same games, Shai has average 30 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists, he'd also average 11 free throws per game.

Another note for this series is the health of Thunder's Forward Jalen Williams. After missing the last 6 games of their postseason including the entire Lakers' series because of a Hamstring injury, Williams is off the injury report and will be starting tonight.

Zak's Keys to Victory

In my opinion, the Thunder have one clear key to victory and that's to double team Wemby with Chet and Hartenstein as much as possible. As a post defender, Chet is as good as it gets to try and slow him down and Hartenstein should be crashing the boards as much as possible.

The Spurs have a tougher road to victory. Their biggest key to victory is to somehow slow down the Thunder's backcourt. New backcourt mate to Shai, Ajay Mitchell has been on fire in these playoffs and has taken over games where teams gameplan for Shai. At the same time, the Spurs will have to play tight defense while NOT FOULING a man that is quite simply the biggest flopper in league history.

Predictions

With the Spurs defense almost "damned if they do and damned if they don't", I am predicting the Thunder in 6. Inevitably, Wemby will have a game or maybe two where he goes for 35 and 15 but Shai and Mitchell will probably average 50 points per game this series and with a healthy J-dub it get;s really tough for San Antonio.

The refs have been slightly more hesitant to call the Thunder's flops this postseason and I anticipate, (and hope) that continues which will give the Spurs' backcourt a chance. The thing is, even if they're not shooting 30 free throws a game the Thunder are still the best team in the league behind their Big 3. The Spurs are at the beginning of a serious dynasty but just don't have enough this year to get past the current dynasty. But they will soon.

• Sportz Nation's Basketball Expert JOEL PITON has the Thunder in 7.