UFC Matchmaking: Lightweight Division

Fans Only Sportz Network
2 days ago
10 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen 9/10/2025 Sportz Nation

Current Rankings

C Ilia Topuria

1 Islam Makhachev

2 Arman Tsarukyan

3 Max Holloway

4 Charles Oliveira

5 Justin Gaethje

6 Dan Hooker

7 Paddy Pimblett

8 Mateusz Gamrot

9 Beneil Dariush

10 Rafael Fiziev

11 Renato Moicano

12 Michael Chandler

13 Benoit Saint Denis

14 Grant Dawson

15 Mauricio Ruffy

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Matt and Zak's Fights

- 2 Arman Tsarukyan vs

6 Dan Hooker

[Rumored]

(Winner Fights Topuria)

- 4 Charles Oliveira vs

10 Rafael Fiziev

[Confirmed]

(Winner Fights Max)

- 5 Justin Gaethje vs

7 Paddy Pimblett

[Rumored]

- 12 Mike Chandler vs

Conor McGregor

[Rumored]

- Maetusz Gamrot vs

Benoit Saint Denis

- Beneil Dariush vs

Grant Dawson

- Renato Moicano vs

Joel Alvarez

- Mauricio Ruffy vs

Ignacio Bahamondes

- Diego Ferreira vs

Alex Hernandez

[Confirmed]

- Ludvoit Klein vs

Mateusz Rebecki

[Confirmed]

- Joaquim Silva vs

Claudio Puelles

[Confirmed]

- Jared Gordon vs

Rafa Garcia

[Confirmed]

- Michael Johnson vs

King Green

- Nasrat Haqparast vs

Fares Ziam

- Esteban Ribovics vs

Chris Duncan

- Drakkar Klose vs

Daniel Zellhuber

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Predictions

Tsarukyan vs Hooker [Winner gets Topuria?]

Zak

I'm going to go on record to say the winner WON'T get Topuria because I believe Topuria vacates the belt to move up for a superfight with Makhachev at 170. Either way, I have Tsarukyan far and away winning this fight both on the feet and on the ground to set up a vacant title fight for himself down the road.

Tsarukyan Wins by DEC

Matt

Do I think Hooker deserves a top-five fight after an over a year layoff? Probably not, but all signs point towards this fight happening in November. Stylistically, I think this favors Tsarukyan, but Hooker has been on a pretty nice winning streak. If Arman wins, a title shot is next, but if Hooker somehow finds a way, then he is instantly in title contention.

I would have Tsarukyan by submission here.

Oliveira vs Fiziev (10/11) [Winner fights Max Holloway]

Zak

A clash of styles between these two, and I have to go with Oliveira for the simple reason that I see him standing a chance standing while I don't give Fiziev a chance on the ground.

Unfortunately for either man, Max is too good right now and wouldn't be baited into going to the ground for either man. BLESSED!

Oliveira by Sub

Holloway by TKO

Matt

Whoever wins between Oliveira and Fiziev should get a title eliminator fight against Max. Max and whoever wins between Oliveira/Fiziev will be exactly in the same boat, meaning one of them has to take that step back. Whatever this fight ends up being would also be for the BMF belt. Banger of a fight for whoever faces Max here.

I have Oliveira beating Fiziev by submission and would have Holloway by decision against Oliveira.

Gaethje vs Pimblett

Zak

I really believe this will be the next non-Championship fight to headline a Pay Per View and possibly in England. Two of the most exciting fighters in the Lightweight division should be duking it out for most of the fight, but even though Gaethje has a technical advantage, I have to give it to Pimblett for his ability to rally at the end of fights and a ground advantage should he decide to take it there.

Pimblett by DEC

Matt

This would be such a fun fight. It is not only a promotional goldmine, but could end up being a stylistic chess match. The striker/grappler matchup may favor Paddy a little more, but Gaethje's takedown defense has improved over the years. This is the title eliminator we all need to see; both fighters deserve it.

I would have Pimblett by Submission here.

Chandler vs McGregor

Zak

We had to put this matchup on here for the White House card coming next summer. In a fight that I believe will be the last in both men's careers but surprisingly not headline the card... (stay tuned for my pick of what will headline UFC at the White House) I see both men putting on an absolute war. McGregor will tag Chandler multiple times, leading to a crowd-jumping knockdown, but McGregor's time away from the Octagon and Chandler's ability to rally will give him a thunderous advantage in the 3rd that will lead him to victory at the end.

Chandler by TKO

Matt

Like Zak said, this had White House card written all over it. Chandler is definitely on the decline, which makes me believe that he will now wait for as long as needed to fight McGregor. It would put a rightful end to The Ultimate Fighter, while giving McGregor and Chandler a great opportunity to make a statement. I mean, this fight would sell TICKETS.

I would go with Chandler by decision here.

Gamrot vs Saint Denis

Zak

Both fighters are coming off a win and trying to make their way into the Top 7 of the division. Gamrot has a wrestling and stamina advantage, but Saint Denis is hungrier and sharper on his feet. If this fight goes long, I can see Gamrot winning in a grappling display, but for now, I see Saint Denis rocking and then finishing Gamrot sometime around the middle of the 2nd.

Saint Denis by TKO

Matt

Saint Denis just had a fantastic and dominant win against one of the better up-and-comers, Mauricio Ruffy, so giving him a top ten fight makes sense. Gamrot seems to be a gatekeeper at this point and matches up extremely well with Saint Denis. Both fighters have heavy hands but are grapple-first, which I think could result in a great fight.

I would have Saint Denis by decision here.

Dariush vs Dawson

Zak

In an eerily similar clash to the Gamrot-Saint Denis bout, I have the former actually taking this one. Grant Dawson is a great fighter and striker, but Beneil Dariush is so strong and used to high-profile fights. Dariush's game plan will be to smother Dawson, and if he can execute it, I don't see how Dawson stands much of a chance purely from the styles.

Dariush by DEC

Matt

I like this matchup because it is a statement fight for both parties involved. Dawson is trying to move his way up while Dariush is trying to stop his fall. I think their styles will clash a little bit, but Dawson needs to be able to handle a guy like Dariush if he wants to get a big fight.

I would have Dawson by TKO/KO here.

Moicano vs Alvarez

Zak

I really love Renato Moicano for everything from his style to the way he'll fight anyone at any time... but this fight is Joel Alvarez's coming-out party. In a fight that I can't see making it out of the first round, Alvarez will swarm Moicano and solidify himself as once again a Top-15 fighter in the division.

Alvarez by TKO

Matt

Ever since stepping into a title fight on short notice, Moicano has been unable to find his footing. This fight against Alvarez, who is one of the biggest up-and-comers in the division, could be the perfect way to regain his spot in the rankings. For Alvarez, this would be his biggest test yet and a great opportunity to show he belongs in the rankings.

I would have Alvarez by decision here.

Ruffy vs Bahamondes

Zak

The Bahamondes train may have derailed briefly after his loss to Rafael Fiziev, but here's where the huge 155'er finally makes the rankings. Bahamondes is too big and gifted at striking, and while I like Mauricio Ruffy in other matchups around the Top 15, Bahamondes will be too tough for him, and if he doesn't fold in the 3rd, Ruffy will lose unanimously.

Bahamondes by TKO

Matt

This fight could absolutely co-main a UFC Fight Night card. Stylistically, both Ruffy and Bahamondes are fight-of-the-night kind of fighters, making this extremely intriguing as a fan. For Ruffy, this would solidify his place in the rankings, as he is fighting arguably the most deserving unranked opponent. For Bahamondes, this gets him into the rankings and possibly could get him a top ten fight next.

I would have Ruffy by KO here.

Ferreira vs Hernandez (9/13)

Zak

A fight between two men on the brink of the Top-20 in this division, this fight will be a war that should end in the first round. With both men inexperienced on the ground but with multiple first-round KOs, the question is who will hit the first big shot. In my mind, I have to take Ferreira here, but it is really a toss-up and should make for a great fight this weekend.

Ferreira by TKO

Matt

I love this fight for both sides. As a ranked fight eliminator, it will be extremely interesting to see how each fighter can handle the other. With the fight likely to be stand-and-bang all the way through, like Zak said, whoever lands the first big shot will likely win. I am so excited for this fight.

I have Hernandez by TKO/KO here.

Klein vs Rebecki (10/25)

Zak

Ludovit Klein is one of the best up-and-coming 155'ers right now, and after his first ranked fight where he lost to Mateusz Gamrot, he needs a tune-up. Mateusz Rebecki is a dangerous fighter, but Klein should be able to beat him easily and set up another crack at the Top-15 ranking.

Klein by DEC

Matt

Klein and Rebecki is another fight that just makes sense. I think it will be a stylistic matchup that both fighters need to take advantage of if they want to be in the ranked conversation. Both have fought high-level competition, so whoever wins will maintain their status as potential ranked contenders.

I also have Klein by decision here.

Silva vs Puelles (9/13)

Zak

Claudio Puelles vs. Joaquim Silva is a great matchup on paper, but Puelles' size, length, and grappling may make it a one-sided contest. I can see this one being handled early, but I think it's more likely a hard-fought battle on the ground where Puelles gets something like 8 minutes of control time on the way to a "boring" win.

Puelles by DEC

Matt

I was not exactly sure how this fight helps either fighter, but nevertheless, I think this fight could be interesting. Puelles is extremely big for the division, with a win against Silva being his biggest one yet. For Silva, this allows him to fight another up-and-comer and test whether or not he can stand and bang while being at a disadvantage size-wise.

I have Puelles by Decision as well.

Gordon vs Garcia (9/13)

Zak

Besides a one-sided loss to Grant Dawson, Rafa Garcia has shown a tremendous amount of talent, especially on the ground. Jared Gordon will always be a gamer but seems like not much more than a stepping stone for Rafa to move on to some ranked fight "eliminators" that are sure to come his way soon.

Garcia by DEC

Matt

This fight is interesting for both sides, as it provides a kind of test that both need in order to be in the ranked conversation. Both fighters have gotten unlucky in their previous couple of fights, so it is fitting that they clash here in a huge fight.

I have Gordon by decision here.

Johnson vs Green

Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck/Imagn Images

Zak

This one is for all the old-school fans who can't believe Michael Johnson and King Green will fight each other in 2025 for a legitimate chance of getting back into the Top 15. A legitimate chance that is admittedly far-fetched, but nonetheless, these two veterans should go to war in the cage. Johnson seems to have rejuvenated his career, while "Bobby" Green seems to be on the downtrend, so I'll give it to Johnson in what could actually be a Fight of the Night winner.

Johnson by DEC

Matt

This would be a massive fight for King Green and Michael Johnson. Johnson has won 4 of his last five with a ranked opponent a fight away, while Green may be one fight away from his career being over. Both are older fighters looking for one last push, so this possibly could be career-defining for both sides.

I would have Johnson by TKO/KO here.

Haqparast vs Ziam

Zak

The number of fights we have is a testament to how DEEP this division is, and the fact that both Nasrat Haqparast and Fares Ziam are likely between the ranks of 16-20 and are this far down shows that. In a stand-up brawl, I have to BARELY give the advantage to Ziam in this one, partially due to his size difference.

Ziam by DEC

Matt

Nasrat Haqparast and Fares Ziam probably deserve a bigger fight than each other, but I think in order for either to get a ranked opponent, they need a stoppage win. Both fighters have won by decision too many times. So, with the division being as deep as it is, you have to make a statement that separates you from the rest, which neither of these fighters has done yet. This is the perfect opportunity for both Haqparast and Ziam to make a name for themselves and show Dana they are more than just decision-merchants.

I would have Ziam by TKO/KO here.

Ribovics vs Duncan

Zak

I am a big fan of Chris Duncan and believe he can make his way onto the rankings someday, but this would be his best test yet if he were to go against Esteban Ribovics. Only losing a razor-tight contest with Haqparast in March, I think Duncan's wrestling will be too much to handle for Ribovics as the Argentinian comes up short again in his pursuit of a number.

Duncan by DEC

Matt

A Robovics/Duncan matchup would be extremely entertaining. Both sides are looking for a ranked opponent and possess the talent to deserve it. Whoever wins this matchup would elevate themselves in line for a ranked matchup.

I would have Ribovics by decision here.

Klose vs Zellhuber

Zak

This fight was made by Matt and me genuinely because we didn't know who else to put Drakkar Klose against. Daniel Zellhuber is still very young and has a lot of potential in the sport, but as it stands now, Drakkar Klose is itching to get back to the rankings and should dispatch the kid with some ease.

Klose by DEC

Matt

Like Zak mentioned, it is slim pickings for a guy like Drakkar Klose. However, if Klose wants to make a statement, doing it against a young and talented fighter like Daniel Zellhuber could be a logical move for him. This would also be a huge statement fight for Zellhuber, whose inconsistency has dropped him out of ranked contention.

I would have Zellhuber by TKO/KO here.

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