UFC Matchmaking: Welterweight Division Pre-UFC 320

Fans Only Sportz Network
Oct 1
10 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen 10/1/2025 Sportz Nation

C Jack Della Maddalena

1 Belal Muhammad

2 Sean Brady

3 Shavkat Rakhmonov

4 Leon Edwards

5 Kamaru Usman

6 Ian Garry

7 Michael Morales

8 Joaquin Buckley

9 Carlos Prates

10 Colby Covington

11 Gilbert Burns

12 Geoff Neal

13 Daniel Rodriguez

14 Gabriel Bonfim

15 Kevin Holland

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Article Key

Red: Confirmed Fight

White: Zak and Matt's Hypothetical Fight

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CJack Della Maddalena

Islam Makhachev

[If Makhachev Wins

Then Fights Ilia Topuria]

Zak

I am a big fan of JDM and his technical striking ability, but let's be honest, is anyone legitimately picking him for this one? Makhachev smothered people at 155, and now without a weight cut and 15 pounds extra, Islam may be an extra 10% better.

Makhachev by Submission

This sets up the BIGGEST match in the UFC since Khabib-Conor, between Makhachev and Topuria. This fight will take place at 170, with Makhachev being the bigger fighter anyway and Topuria untested on the ground. This fight will be eerily close to Makhachev-Volk 1. Both fighters will win rounds and dominate at points, but in the end, I have to take Makhachev due to an impressive control time total.

Makhachev by Split Decision

Matt

Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev may be closer than people think. Ever since the nose surgery, JDM has looked like an entirely different fighter. Now that he can actually breathe through his nose normally, his stamina has increased dramatically, opening up a world of trouble for his opponents. With that said, I simply cannot bet against a fighter in Islam that has been top-2 pound-for-pound in the world for multiple years. Islam is just the total package; he improves as a kickboxer with every fight, and we already know what he can do on the ground. I do think this fight is close though.

I'm going to go with Makhachev by decision against JDM here.

Now, for the fight of a lifetime, Makhachev vs. Topuria. I mean, it does not get any bigger than this. The two best fighters in the world, both of whom do not like each other very much, going head-to-head for the Undisputed P4P fighter in the world. This is so close, my goodness. Islam will be the bigger fighter and have had a fight at welterweight at this point, but Topuria's hands have unprecedented power. It is truly a toss-up for me, but right now I think the power will overcome the technique.

I would have Topuria by TKO/KO here.

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Muhammad v Brady

[Winner fights 3Rakhmonov

if Makhachev wins]

Zak

While the title scene at 170 is taken up by those two fights for the next 8 months or so, there will need to be title eliminators. Belal is coming off his loss in his first title defense, and Sean Brady is on a 3-fight win streak since the pair's last matchup. In the second time around, look for Brady to work more on his grappling and be aggressive as he avenges the only loss of his career.

Brady by TKO

Around the same time as Topuria-Makhachev, this fight between Brady and Rakhmonov will decide the next challenger for the crown. Brady looked very impressive against Muhammad and has an impressive all-around game, but Rakhmonov is just different. His size and grappling will dominate Brady and might even dominate Makhachev too…

Rakhmonov by Submission

Matt

Muhammad vs Brady makes complete sense here. Both fighters are kind of stuck in the line for the title, especially if Topuria moves up. Stylistically, this would be an absolute chess match on the ground, with both Muhammad and Brady being some of the best grapplers in the sport. With that said, I like Brady's chin more than Muhammad's, which I think can be a difference in this fight.

I would have Brady by decision here.

Now, this sets up Sean Brady to match up against a beast in Shavkat Rakhmonov. Though both are talented fighters, I think Shavkat blows by Brady. Rakhmonov honestly should be getting a title shot next, but due to the amount of time he's been inactive due to injury, this is a great comeback fight.

I have Rakhmonov by TKO/KO here.

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4Leon Edwards

9Carlos Prates

[Loser Fights

13Daniel Rodriguez]

Zak

Prates' length advantage will be a huge part of this epic kickboxing matchup. He may be going up against a "washed" ex-champion in Leon Edwards, currently on a 2-fight skid, but that old dog still knows some tricks. Edwards is as sharp and tactical on his feet as they come, and I have him taking Prates the distance but gaining a slight edge.

Edwards by Split Decision

After going to ear with Edwards, a fight against D-Rod should be a bounce-back fight for Prates. D-Rod is a slippery fighter, though, with a wealth of experience and will take a round but still lose the fight in the end.

Prates by Unanimous Decision

Matt

Edwards vs Prates is an extremely fun fight stylistically. Edwards is finally matching up against a striker, with Prates getting a huge opportunity after a brutal KO win last time out. I think experience will reign supreme in this matchup, however, causing me to believe Edwards will have an edge. He is a more level-headed fighter now, so when Prates inevitably takes the sort of risks he always does, Edwards will be ready.

I would have Edwards by decision here.

That means Prates would next match up against Daniel Rodriguez. This is a realistic step up for D-Rod, who has been on a tear lately, while also giving Prates a solid test that could maintain his current ranked status. With the power these two fighters hold, this fight could end very quickly.

I would have Prates by TKO/KO here.

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5Kamaru Usman

6Ian Machado Garry

Zak

One of my favorite hypothetical matchups we made on this list, Garry vs. Usman is as much of a “Past Meets Present” as we’ll see for a long time. While Usman would hold a grappling advantage, I don’t see him taking advantage of it. Garry’s speed and precision will be slightly better than Usman’s timing and experience, and with this win, firmly put Garry into a future title eliminator.

Garry by Unanimous Decision

Matt

Usman vs. Machado Garry would be an absolute barnburner. Both are coming off dominant wins and will be looking for a title within the next fight or so. This is also a great test for both fighters to see if they can handle a style that is very different from their own. With Usman looking to take fights to the ground and Machado Garry looking to stand and bang, it would be very interesting to see how this one would turn out. With that in mind, I think Usman can dominate this fight on the ground, giving Machado Garry the same amount of trouble he ran into against Rakhmonov.

I would have Usman by decision here.

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8Michael Morales

7Joaquin Buckley

Zak

Michael Morales is 6-0 in the UFC and undefeated, and he will be Buckley’s biggest test in the UFC. The former Knockout of the Year winner, Buckley, will need to stick and move to stand a chance in this one, but he will more likely get caught and finished by Morales’ deadly hands.

Morales by TKO

Matt

I could absolutely see this matchup headlining a Fight Night card. I mean, talk about fireworks! Morales is a beast on the feet who can turn it up and finish you with anything. However, Buckley has some of the heaviest hands in the division, possesing that one-punch knockout power. Neither fighter likes taking things to the ground, so this fight could be a pormotional goldmine as well. I can't see this going past two rounds if this fight wer to happen.

I would have Morales by TKO/KO here.

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10Colby Covington

Rinat Fakhretdinov

Zak

I love Colby as much as anyone for his cardio, wrestling and overall ability to play the bad guy. That being said, Fakhretdinov reminds me of Colby six years ago and should dominate Covington brutally. In a pure wrestling match, Fakhretdinov will have more control time and strikes landed and therefore, the win.

Fakhretdinov by Unanimous Decision

Matt

After winning 4 of his last 5 fights (the only non-win was a draw), Rinat Fakhretdinov is probably the most deserving of a ranked fight currently. Fighting a guy like Covington would be a massive step forward. With that said, Covington is extremely inactive and is on a steep decline. I honestly do not think this fight would be very close. Rakretdinov is just overwhelming for opponents.

I would have Fakhretdinov by TKO/KO here

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11Gilbert Burns

Muslim Salikhov

Zak

Similarly to Colby, Gilbert Burns’ time on the UFC rankings is coming to an end. Salikhov could be the man to do it, but what’s interesting about this matchup is Burns’ extreme advantage on the ground. Burns’ third-degree black belt could see him earn a shocking submission victory to keep his number.

Burns by Submission

Matt

This fight makes sense for both sides in my eyes. Salikhov is a extremely dangerous fighter that deserves a ranked oppoentnt next, while Burns is no more than a gatekeeper at this point. I think, if Burns can turn back the clock, he could make things interesting. Otherwise, I think this fight may end in round 1.

I have Salikhov by TKO/KO here.

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14Gabriel Bonfim

Randy Brown

Zak

Another confirmed fight is scheduled for next weekend. Both fighters have won 4 of their last 5 and are looking to use this fight to catapult them closer to the Top-10. Bonfim has a definite grappling advantage, and Brown has an outstanding size advantage. In Bonfim’s last fight against Wonderboy, his wrestling and takedowns were only good enough for a SD, and with Brown’s ability to fight at both levels, I’ll take him to ward off the younger challenger and jump into the Top-15.

Brown by Unanimous Decision

Matt

This fight is huge for the division. I think whoever wins this fight can get a top-10 opponent next and have a great shot at winning that too. Brown is so lanky for the division, while Bonfim is one of the better well-rounded up-and-comers the division has to offer. Brown's length may be too much for Bonfim if he wants to take things to the ground, but if he does manage to do so, I do not trust Brown to get back up.

I would have Bonfim by Submission here.

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15 Kevin Holland

Mike Malott

Zak

This one is scheduled for 10/18 and is another example of Kevin Holland being willing to fight anyone above or below him. He will likely have to fend off Malott’s takedowns at first and may even trap him in his guard. Towards round 2 and in round 3, though, I can see Big Mouth taking over.

Holland by Split Decision

Matt

This fight has "fight of the night" written all over it. Holland and Malott are absolute animals that can strike as well as grapple if need be. Though Holland is coming off a tough loss, I do believe he has the advantage coming in. With that said, Malott showed a lot of heart in his last fight, in which he won, showing that he can dominate on the feet. Stylistically, it would be intense the whole way through, but I like Holland's experience against strikers like Malott.

I would have Holland by decision here as well.

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12Geoff Neal

Neil Magny

Zak

After Magny’s submission win last weekend, he gets a future ranked fight against Geoff Neal, who hasn’t beaten a ranked fighter in over 3 years. Neal’s hands are strong enough to knock anyone in this division out, and that includes Magny, but I don’t see it. I think it’s much more likely Magny uses his grappling and long reach to control the fight and makes this a “boring” but dominant win.

Magny by Unanimous Decision

Matt

Coming off a controversial win, Magny still showed he is able to come back from a fight he is losing and prevail in the end. This is something we have not seen in a while from Magny, so giving him one last shot at the rankings against a gatekeeper in Geoff Neal would make sense in my eyes. As for Neal, getting brutally knocked out by Carlos Prates showed that he may have peaked already in the UFC and is no more than where he is now.

I would have Neal by decision here.

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Taiyilake Nueraji

Axel Sola

Zak

Both of these fighters are on their way to being “The Next Big Thing” at 170, so it’s only right they face each other so early. Both men are 6’2” with long-ish reaches for 170 and love to stand and bang. This fight could be ended at any point by either man with a solid elbow or flush strike, but I foresee Nueraji outstriking his older opponent and taking a step towards getting his ranked fight.

Nueraji by Split Decision

Matt

This is a fight that not many people would acknowledge or be excited about going into it, but they will remember the name of the fighter who wins. Sola was a beast in his time outside the UFC and won his UFC debut in decisive fashion. On the other hand, Nueraji is a different breed (has won his last 5 fights, 4 by TKO/KO and 1 by submission) and a fighter I could see Dana White fast-tracking up the ranks. If this fight were to happen, it would be a huge "I'm here" fight for this division and could get a ranked opponent next.

I would have Nueraji by TKO/KO here.

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Vicente Luque

Joel Alvarez

(Short Notice Fight)

Zak

Another confirmed fight, this time between two guys who have spent a lot of time in the rankings. This fight was on short notice as Joel Alvarez steps in for the injured Santiago Ponzinibbio on 18 days' notice. Alvarez will make his first pit stop at 170 and has won 7 of his last 8 at 155. I actually see Alvarez flatlining Luque in the first round in this one and catapulting himself into a ranked fight at either weight.

Alvarez by TKO

Matt

Though this may not be the biggest fight in terms of the division yet, I think it could be a fun one. Luque always leaves everything in the Octagon, while Alvarez has won 4 of his last 5. Even with Alvarez coming in on short notice, he is still a much better fighter than Luque who, in my opinion, is far past his prime.

I also have Alvarez by TKO/KO here.

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