UFC Predictions: Fight Night 268 Moreno v.s. Kavanaugh

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 2/27/2026

In our predictions from last week which you can find here for Strickland vs Hernandez,

Zak went 5-2 with 3 methods right for 8 points.

Matt went 3-4 with 2 methods right for 5 points.

Points to Date:

Zak: 28 (19-7)

Matt: 25 (17-9)

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*All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook on 2/26

Graphic by UFC for UFC Mexico Fight Night 268

6 Brandon Moreno vs

Lone'er Kavanaugh

(Moreno -210)

Zak Drapeau

I like Kavanaugh a lot, and he has a future in the division, but being a late replacement against a champion like Moreno isn't his fight. This fight will go the distance as they both grapple and strike like a chess match, but it should come to a 5-round, likely 49-46 decision.

Moreno by Decision

Matt Hylen

Though he is coming off a brutal loss in his last fight and took this fight on short notice, is it crazy to think Lone'er Kavanaugh has a shot in this one? He's rapid on the feet with dynamic kickboxing ability, while having a solid ground game to boot. His durability is a question mark, but I like Kavanaugh as a fighter a lot.

Brandon Moreno, on the other hand, seems to be in a weird place in his career. Though he may be on the downward slope, he is still one of the best volume boxers the division has ever seen. His big issue right now is that he can't get over the hump that the elite talents present to him, making him a glorified gatekeeper in this division.

I think Kavanaugh has a bit of an edge in this one. I see Loner beating Moreno at his own game, despite the lack of time to prepare. Kavanaugh has nothing to lose in this one, which makes him all the more dangerous.

Prediction: Kavanaugh by TKO/KO

9 Marlon Vera vs

10 David Martinez

(Martinez -330)

Zak Drapeau

Chito and Martinez is a fun match and maybe Chito's last chance to stay afloat in this division. With Martinez's stock much more on the rise and his ability to stop takedowns, I see this one staying tight for the first round before he puts a pace on Vera that the veteran will not keep up with.

Martinez by Decision

Matt Hylen

I think this fight could be a barnburner. Both Vera and Martinez are extremely tough fighters with elite-level durability.

For David Martinez, he's a quick, powerful boxer with nasty hands. He outstruck Rob Font in just his 2nd UFC fight, making it clear he can go very far in this division. The biggest thing going against him is experience, which Vera has plenty of.

Speaking of Chito, Vera is a gatekeeper at best at this point. Against elite competition, he has lost 4 of his last 5, which is not the best look for the former title contender. He is a very low volume striker who just relies on landing the big shots in order to win. With that said, his chin is one of the best in the UFC, making him such a hard guy to finish.

I think this is a pretty straightforward fight in terms of who dominates. Vera's proven chin could make it interesting, but I think we see a masterclass from Martinez.

Prediction: Martinez by Decision

Daniel Zellhuber vs

King Green

(Zellhuber -470)

Zak Drapeau

Man, Bobby Green is one of my all-time favorite fighters to watch and is always as entertaining as he is badass. With Zellhuber on the wrong side of a 2-fight streak and the pressure on for him to make one more shot at a ranking, I can see Green picking the younger fighter apart or Zellhuber getting a long-awaited knockout. Even as a +400 underdog, I'm gonna go with Green here by split decision.

Green by Decision

Matt Hylen

While I am still high on Zellhuber as a prospect, I like this fight against a puzzle in King Green. Formerly a top prospect, Zellhuber is an explosive kickboxer who is built for war inside the octagon. He's must-see TV every time he gets into the octagon, but he may have been brought up too soon. His defensive skills and accuracy still need work if he wants to become the prospect he was hyped up to be.

As for King Green, he will either dominate a fight or get knocked out. Basically, he's a puzzle to figure out on the feet until you figure him out, which then results in a KO. Green is known for his hands-down defensive technique and ability to taunt throughout a fight he's winning. With that said, his skill set is nothing special and has been his downfall on multiple occasions.

I think this fight is close until it isn't. Once Zellhuber lands a big shot, it is over in my eyes.

Prediction: Zellhuber by TKO/KO

Edgar Chairez vs

Felipe Bunes

(Chairez -350)

Zak Drapeau

A fight between flyweights is always the toughest to predict in my eyes because of how well-rounded they are. In this case specifically, Chairez is the favorite and a great jiu-jitsu artist, while Bunes is also talented but gave up 5 takedowns in his last fight, ending in a loss. I can see a 2nd-round submission for the favorite as much as I see a decision, but to buck the trend of my last 3 predictions, let's go with a finish in this one.

Chairez by Submission

Matt Hylen

Edgar Chairez is another one of those fighters who loses to the top talents but can beat anyone beneath him. He looked really good his last time out, showcasing his quick and powerful boxing abilities and solid submission skills. He has potential, but consistency has been an issue for him. As for Bunes, he is your everyday BJJ submission artist. He is awful on the feet but will dominate if he gets you to the ground.

This fight should end early either way; I don't see a world where this goes to a decision.

Prediction: Chairez by TKO/KO

7 Ailin Perez vs

8 Macy Chiasson

(Perez -190)

Zak Drapeau

I don't mean to underplay Macy Chiasson who is a fantastic fighter that has sat among the Top-10 of this division for over a year but this fight is ALL Perez in my mind. A 3-round boxing match is what will 100% happen here and Perez won't exactly dominate, but she will be the aggressor to the tune of something like 70 punches to Chiasson's 50 or so.

Perez by Decision

Matt Hylen

This has "fight of the night" written all over it in my eyes.

I am a big fan of Ailin Perez's game. She may be a bit of a control grappler, but she has all the talent in the world to make a serious run in this division. As for Chiasson, she's big for this division, giving her an edge over most of the opponents she fights. She holds extreme power in her striking, but her wrestling has been a bit fraudulent as of late, making the "balanced fighter" tag a bit of a falsehood.

This should be a huge win for Perez. She has the track record against very good opponents, has been on a major heater as of late, and should dominate with her style of fighting.

Prediction: Perez by Decision

Douglas Silva de Andrade vs

Javier Reyes

(Reyes -230)

Zak Drapeau

One of the oldest stories in the book as long-weathered veteran D-Silva takes on the debuting promotional star. Javier Reyes will make his first trip to the Octagon with the reputation of a 22-5 fighter with hard hands. This fight could easily be D-Silva outclassing the younger man for 3 rounds, but I believe sometime in the 1st or 2nd, Reyes will land a clean uppercut and put out Silva to make his stamp in the UFC.

Prediction: Reyes by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen

Styles make fights in this sport, which is the case for this one here. De Andrade does not have the cleanest record in terms of PEDs, but when he does fight, he is just about as average as it gets. He's a win-loss fighter who is super inactive due to the suspensions and lack of matchmaking. As for Reyes, he is a solid prospect with good power. However, he seems to be a pretty basic striker with no real track record to speak of. Since Douglas is so inactive and unproven, this seems like an easy fight for a guy like Reyes.

Prediction: Reyes by TKO/KO

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-Z.D. (@DrapeauZak on X)

-Matt Hylen (@matthylen_ on all social media platforms)