United States' World Cup Expectations

Zak Drapeau
6 hours ago
4 min read

by Zak Drapeau

Sportz Nation - 6/10/2026

Photo by Nam Y. Huh via Associated Press

The United States soccer team has never been one of the World's powers and the 2026 edition of the World Cup tournament is no different. Being one of the home countries will give them a lot of coverage and hopefully some game time heroism but overall, the Americans are not expected to be one of the last teams standing.

That doesn't mean we can't hope the boys have a good showing.

Group Stage

The way the World Cup works is that the 48 teams invited to the 2026 World Cup are split into 12 groups of 4. In each of those 12 groups, the 4 teams will each play each other once. For each game, a win gives you 3 points, a draw gives you 1 point and a loss gives you 0 points. At the end of the 3 group stage games, the 2 teams atop each division will advance to the 32-team "Knockout Stage" Tournament. The remaining 8 teams will advance by being the 8, highest scoring 3rd place teams from their Group Stage point totals.

For the United States, their Group Stage will be a part of Group D which also includes Turkey, Paraguay and Australia. On the international stage currently, Turkey is expected to win their division and is considered the strongest side of their group.

The United States is just barely considered 2nd best in Group D, with Australia and Paraguay just below them in an incredibly tight race expected for the 2nd place finish. With Group D having no Tournament favorite of any kind but 4, closely contested good teams, anything could happen.

Photo Credits to Robert Alam via ISIPhotos.com

Expect a few draws between these teams especially with Paraguay who has the slowest tempo of all 4 teams in Group D. Turkey is the strongest side so they should finish atop their Group with either 2 wins and a draw or 2 draws and a win.

The USA will first face off with Paraguay on June 13 in Los Angeles. Their 2nd game will be against Australia on June 19 in Seattle. Their 3rd and final game of the Group Stage will be against Turkey on June 23rd again in Los Angeles.

The BIGGEST game of Group Play for the Americans should be their 2nd game of the stage against Australia. I expect a win or draw against Paraguay and either a draw or more likely a loss against Turkey. That means the battle for 2nd place and an automatic bid for the Knockout stage should be decided with the Aussies.

In conclusion, I believe the Americans should finish 2nd in their Group. A likely final tally is either 4 or 5 points, with 5 likely meaning a 2nd place finish and even at 4 points likely causing them to be one of the final 8, 3rd place teams to still make the tournament. Either way, the home country should make it to the Knockout stage.

Photo Credits to Wilf Thorne via ISIPhotos/Getty Images

Knockout Stage

(The Tournament)

The final seeding to determine matchups in the first round of the 32-team tournament is frankly way too complicated to explain here. For the entire determination of seeds, click the link here.

I believe the Americans will make the knockout stage in the Round of 32 but from there, it's anyone's guess. Solely depending on who they're faced off with first, I would say it's most likely the United States loses it's first match of the tournament unless getting lucky and facing one of the worst teams right off the bat.

Fortunately for us, we were placed in a winnable Group D, but will be exposed as one of the worst teams in the tournament when faced with better nations.

As far as the United States ranking in the 48-total teams that make the World Cup, we are probably between 30-35. Which means we should be one of the worst teams to actually make the Knockout Stage if we get there.

It will be great to see the boys make it to the actual tournament but when faced with more experienced and talented teams such as the European and South American powerhouses, we will likely see a result where the Americans lose by more than one goal.

Summary

I fully expect the United States to get bounced out of the tournament in the First Round of the Knockout Stage. As a team, you should expect a good tempo highlighted by our forwards with okay to below average defense.

We could definitely see some home-crowd advantages that see them steal a win or two and possibly even make the 2nd round.

The sad truth is the United States just aren't up to snuff with the World Powers in soccer just yet. It will be awesome to see the World Cup in America with the boys having at least a decent showing, but we should just be happy if they make the tournament.