Week 1 NFL Sunday Picks and Bets
by Zak Drapeau
Sportz Nation - 9/12/2026
New Orleans Saints
@ Detroit Lions
(Lions -7)
This game has one of the largest spreads of the weekend and that comes from the better team over the past few years being at home; the Detroit Lions. After a down year in 2025, the Lions will look to get back to their "trench-heavy" style of play on both sides of the ball against a Saints team that are more of a pass heavy team.
The Saints have a shot to be an explosive offense this year with Tyler Shough looking to progress under Kellen Moore's expertise and Travis Etienne's addition to the team. The Saints will be without first round draft pick Jordyn Tyson who could've really helped take the top of the Lions' defense but even if he was healthy the Lions should be able to score early and often against a Saints defense that doesn't have the firepower to contend with them.
Zak's Pick: Lions -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@ Cincinnati Bengals
(Bengals -3.5)
This may not be the biggest clash of the week between two of the best in the league but it's definitely my favorite. A duel between two of the best Quarterbacks in the league in a season where both of them have MVP-hopes, this game will give us a basis right away on a lot of questions we have for both teams.
Can Baker still air the ball without Mike Evans? Is Joe Burrow still the best arm in the league? Will the Buccaneers regain their defensive prowess from years prior? Will the new look Bengals' defense mean Burrow doesn't HAVE to score 28 a game?
I think Burrow-Chase-Higgins-Brown is one of the best combinations in the sport when healthy and even when Baker Mayfield does Baker Mayfield-things, the Bengals significantly improved their defense the past two years and should do enough to win this especially at home.
Zak's Pick: Bengals ML
New York Jets
@ Tennessee Titans
(Titans -1.5)
The "Toilet Bowl" of the week will happen in Nashville between two teams who hypothetically have all the potential in the world but realistically will both finish Bottom-10 next year. I like Robert Saleh's leadership for the Titans this season as they depend on Cam Ward taking a step toward becoming elite and the Jets have a great roster on paper, if only they weren't the Jets or had Geno Smith under center.
The Jet's have prioritized drafting in the trenches over the past few years and you can clearly see the vision. If Breece Hall is healthy he could legitimately have a huge season behind their big O-line and that goes double for Tony Pollard and the Titans.
Plain and simple if Cam Ward shows us something and throws the ball around the Titans may win big. If both teams depend on the run, I still like the Titans' defense to hold the Jets in check enough to squeeze out a win at home.
Zak's Pick: Titans -1.5
Baltimore Ravens
@ Indianapolis Colts
(Ravens -3)
So as some of you may know I'm a huge Colts fan and also a gambler, so I've always had a superstition not to bet against my boys; but this one looks pretty juicy. I'm not sure if the Ravens are out of Vegas' favor or they're still high on the Colts from the beginning of last season but I really thought the line for this one would've been a lot further away.
The Ravens will keep their run-first mentality on offense but with new Head Coach Jesse Minter may have one of the very best defenses in the whole league. The Colts will rely heavy on Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren on offense but with only 2 solid playmakers to cover, I think the Ravens hold the Colts to 17 points or fewer and easily cover this week even on the road.
Zak's Pick: Ravens -3
Atlanta Falcons
@ Pittsburgh Steelers
(Steelers -5.5)
Boy oh boy the Falcons are screwed. After Michael Penix' injury taking longer than expected and Tua phenomenally hurting his oblique this week, Cooper Rush will start Week 1 for them in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers aren't blowing the doors off or anything this season but they are still the Steelers and are as tough in the trenches as anyone. The Falcons have a very good offensive line too this season but their pass rush is severely hampered by both Jalon Walker and James Pearce expected to miss a lot of time. With the Falcons' offense squarely on Bijan's shoulders and Aaron Rodgers getting a lot of time in the pocket, this one should be an easy win for the Black and Gold.
Zak's Pick: Steelers -5.5
Chicago Bears
@ Carolina Panthers
(Bears -3)
Two teams coming into the season in completely different scenarios; the Panthers are being a little too overhyped and the Bears not being hyped up enough. Ben Johnson's claims that he wants the Bears to be the highest powered ever are too rich for my blood but I wouldn't be shocked if Caleb Williams has a Top-5 QB season this year.
Then for the Panthers; just ask yourself how much do you believe in Bryce Young? Personally, I believe that he can throw for 200 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Their defense and pass rush definitely improved this offseason but only enough to stay in games, not win them. Being in Charlotte will help the Panthers but only enough to keep this one close.
Zak's Pick: Bears ML
Cleveland Browns
@ Jacksonville Jaguars
(Jaguars -8.5)
I cannot wait to see how Deshaun Watson plays this weekend because if it's anything like his pre season games, it will be the most hilariously terrible game of the year. The Jaguars are a legit team in the AFC this season with a good pass rush, Secondary, and a very promising passing game on offense. Meanwhile for Cleveland... I think they still have Denzel Ward right?
Hammer of the Week: Jaguars -8.5
Zak's Pick: Jaguars -8.5
Buffalo Bills
@ Houston Texans
(Bills -1.5)
Game of the week time and I can't wait to see a rematch of one of the games of the year last season. This one is simple, can the Bills exact revenge after the Texans' defense stifled them last year? And, can C.J. Stroud remember how to play Quarterback?
The Bills were one of the victims of Houston's 9-game win streak to end the season last year and Josh Allen had his worst game of the season during it. It's very hard to run a defensive unit that good out for two straight seasons but all indications are that's what Houston is going to do. I know this is a big if but as long as Stroud has a decent game, (he doesn't even have to be good but decent) I think the Texans take this one in their home stadium.
Zak's Pick: Texans ML
Miami Dolphins
@ Las Vegas Raiders
(Raiders -3)
So the Dolphins are the weakest roster in the sport but with some promise of having a decent coaching staff moving forward. Then the Raiders are a complete unknown in 2026 with Ashton Jeanty on a weak ankle, Kirk Cousins throwing to a weak receiver core and a defense with as many question marks as the SATs.
The Raiders' offense definitely has potential with Jeanty, Bowers and a much better O-line than the Dolphins' pass rush. I'm not sure HOW much potential so I'm gonna go money line. I can see a world where the Raiders stall on the Dolphins' side of the 50 and have to kick a few field goals, opening up the Dolphins to making a late game push that ultimately leads now where.
Zak's Pick: Raiders ML
Washington Commanders
@ Philadelphia Eagles
(Eagles -5.5)
Another divisional game in week 1 where we get to see a finally-healthy Jayden Daniels make the most with the team that's around him including Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs. Will that be good enough to beat Philly and their CB duo of Mitchell and DeJean? Let's just say Daniels will have to do a heck of a lot of scrambling to win this one.
Truthfully, I give the Commanders VERY little chance in this one other than the fact that anything can happen in divisional games. The Commanders are weak up front, the Eagles have one of the best Secondaries in the league and I expect a much better year out of Barkley. As long as Hurts doesn't turn the ball over more than once I don't see how the Eagles don't cover.
Zak's Pick: Eagles -5.5
Green Bay Packers
@ Minnesota Vikings
(Vikings -1.5)
So this one is very weird. I'm actually a lot higher on Kyler Murray than most and believe him and Jettas will be a force this season but the Packers are the better team right? I know they're without Josh Jacobs but their receiving core is deep, their O-line is good and they outclassed the Vikings last year in the one game they didn't rest their starters in.
Brian Flores may be the best defensive coach in the NFL so the Vikes will have a "No Fly Zone" defense ready but I still question how many points they can score against the Packers' D. If Kyler were to come out Week 1 and carve up the Packers I'd be shocked, I'm thinking his chemistry with the team will come full circle a little later in the season so for Week 1, give me the underdogs.
Zak's Pick: Packers ML
Arizona Cardinals
@ Los Angeles Chargers
(Chargers -9.5)
The pick here isn't about who's gonna win, but about how much? The Chargers are seemingly, completely healthy right now which means they're one of the best rosters in the league. Meanwhile the Cardinals... aren't. Their is also room for curiosity on the Chargers' defense this season after their DC Jesse Minter moved on to Baltimore.
The Cardinals actually have a rag-tag Secondary that could be pretty nice this year but haven't shown much else on that side of the ball. We know McBride will do his thing but without proof yet of Jeremiyah Love or even Marvin Harrison for that matter, I can't tell if they'll score 20 points or not even break double digits.
Zak's Pick: Chargers ML
Dallas Cowboys
@ New York Giants
(Cowboys -3)
Love this matchup for Week 1 Sunday Night Football; so many storylines. John Harbaugh's first game as a Giant in his first rivalry match with the Cowboys. Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers ready to take on the season as a force to be reckoned with. The Cowboys being one of the dark horses to actually win the division this season with Brian Schottenheimer being a coach to watch out for in his 2nd season.
I personally don't think John Harbaugh is washed and their offense looks to be explosive as hell this season or until Skattebo gets another concussion and Jaxson Dart gets hurt trying to extend a play he should've went down for. The Cowboys will be one of the best passing teams again this season but even the Giants' Secondary has been built very well and I think a shootout in this one actually favors the boys in blue.
Zak's Pick: Giants ML
Denver Broncos
@ Kansas City Chiefs
(Chiefs -2.5)
Monday Night Football is all about 1 question: Which Patrick Mahomes are we gonna get. Plain and simple, if we see pre-2023 Mahomes they'll be the better team but if we see the Mahomes from the last 3 seasons the Broncos might embarrass them just as the Chargers did the same time last season.
Bo Nix is a very good Quarterback and the addition of Jaylen Waddle should make him even better. Then you have the Broncos' defense which should be a Top-5 unit in football again this season. All this points to one of the best teams in football but truthfully, that's how important Mahomes is. If the former MVP can play elite football again in Aarowhead, the Chiefs will win. If he's indecisive and turning the ball over like we've seen more recently, I'd take the broncos in a heartbeat.
Something tells me we'll see Mahomes have his ups and downs but the Broncos' defense will play better. This could be a bet that gets torn up midway through the second quarter but I'm going with my gut here.
Zak's Pick: Broncos ML
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-Z.D.
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