Who is Super Bowl Bound?: Patriots-Broncos Preview

Matt Hylen
1 day ago
5 min read

And then there were two...

The AFC Championship game is set, with the 2-seeded New England Patriots heading to Denver to take on the 1-seeded Broncos. New England, who are coming off a tough win against the Texans, will be looking for some more offense against a Broncos defense that is among the best in football. For Denver, they are, of course, without their quarterback Bo Nix this week, making backup Jarrett Stidham the starter on the biggest stage of his life.

The game will commence at 3:30 pm EST, with the weather looking to be at a high of 24 with clouds all day long. New England is also listed as a four-point favorite to win this matchup.

So, with that out of the way, here is what to expect for tomorrow's game and my prediction regarding who will be heading to Santa Clara for Super Bowl 60.

Keys to the Game: Patriots

Photo Credit to David Butler II-Imagn Images

To start off, the offense needs to be better. Though they have come through in the clutch in both games thus far in the playoffs, both games should not have been as close as they were. This offense has been able to move the ball all season long, ranking in the top 10 in efficiency in deep ball percentage. Drake Maye needs to get rid of the ball quicker, find the open man, and not try to get everything on one play. Again, he has made some great throws, but Denver's defense can change the course of a game, making it all the more important for OC Josh McDaniels to find ways to move the ball downfield.

Secondly, the turnovers need to stop from Drake Maye. Though he has not thrown many interceptions this postseason, the fumbles are becoming a major concern. With that said, it is not entirely his fault all the time. The left side of the O-line has been extremely poor this postseason, resulting in Maye getting hit from the blindside and fumbling the ball. Denver is relentless in the front seven and is not afraid to send pressure. Maye needs to step up into the pocket sooner, use his legs to run if needed, and understand that it is okay to kill a play to prevent a sack or a big hit. With that said, Will Campbell and Jared Wilson also need to be better in order for Maye to have the time he needs to get the ball out.

My last key to the game for New England is pressure, in all aspects. The team has been at its best when defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr has schemed up a blitz play to get to the QB. Jarrett Stidham's inexperience needs to be the deciding factor in this game, but that has to be caused by the defense. Apply as much pressure as possible to make Stidham have to make a play in the pocket; that is the biggest key to this game. The secondary has looked great all playoffs long; the Pats have to trust in their coverage ability and blitz early and often against an inexperienced quarterback.

Keys to the Game: Broncos

Photo Credit to Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

For Denver, my first key to the game is that this needs to be the best-coached game Sean Payton and his crew will have this season. Is it a massive blow not to have your starting QB? Absolutely, but it was not just Bo Nix that got you here. Payton needs to find a way to rally his troops and get them motivated enough to feel they can beat New England with Stidham at the helm. At the same time, Payton and his crew need to give Stidham the ability to make a play when he needs to and not limit the playbook too much. This is an all-or-nothing kind of game, and one Payton needs to win in the coaching battle if they want any chance of winning this game.

My second key for Denver is that they need to start off hot early. Playing from behind is a position the Patriots have put their opponents in all season long, which cannot happen when there is already enough pressure on Stidham. Denver needs to run the ball as much as they can, create short throwing opportunities for Stidham, and catch New England off guard with a play-action scheme. If Denver can find a way to start the game ahead, their defense can do the rest.

This brings me to my third key, and that is the defense needs to step up more than they have all season long. This Denver D is no stranger to big pressure moments and has made big play after big play in crunch time that contributed to all the 4th quarter comebacks Denver has had this season. One of New England's biggest offensive flaws is ball security, which Denver needs to take advantage of in order to put the offense in a position to succeed.

Who Wins?

I think this game is going to be a lot closer than people think. As a Pats fan myself, we know better than any other fan base what a backup quarterback can do at any point. Stidham is not a bad backup in the slightest, either; he is getting paid $6 million for a reason. Plus, with the offense struggling in the middle of games combined with the proven ability of Denver's defense, this game looks a lot more concerning for Pats fans than it seemed at first.

With that said, I do think it will come down to the quarterback play in the 4th quarter, making me side with the man who has proven his clutchness time and time again this season. Maye may not be having the greatest of postseasons stats-wise, but when it has mattered most, he has delivered every time. I trust the defense and the way they have played in the playoffs to make things difficult for Stidham, but I trust in the offense's ability to make plays when it matters even more. So, I am going to go with a 24-16 Patriots victory and have New England making their first Super Bowl since 2018.

I mean, who would have thought, right?