Who Will Face the Patriots Next? Texans @ Steelers Preview

by Zak Drapeau

1/12/2026

Sportz Nation

Graphic by Jaren Kawada via Article on clutchpoints.com

In the final matchup of Super Wildcard weekend, the 12-5 Houston Texans will play the Pittsburgh Steelers in Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh tonight at 8:15 EST. The Texans are being favored by 3 points in the game with the Over/Under set at 38.5, which is the lowest of any game this weekend.

Texans

The Texans' identity has been their defense this season under Demeco Ryans which has ranked #1 in total yards allowed and #2 in points per game allowed. Led by their dominant D-End pairing of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, the Texans have only allowed more than 17 points in a road game ONCE the entire season, in a loss at Seattle where the Seahawks scored 27.

Their offense hasn't set the league on fire by any means but they have scored 20+ points in 7 straight games as they ended their season with that 7-game streak being among the best this season. C.J. Stroud had a below average season altogether but was a great compliment to the Texans' rushing attack led by rookie Woody Marks and veteran Nick Chubb. Fellow Texans' star Nico Collins had another great season with over 70 catches for 1,117 yards and 6 TDs.

The Texans have used their run game and defense to great lengths all season by slowing the tempo of games and making teams need to beat their defense soundly, something very few teams could do all year.

Steelers

The Steelers have been a solid team all year and proved thus by beating the Ravens in game 272 on the year to win the AFC North. Even through multiple key injuries and Aaron Rodgers' 41-year old season being more limited, the Black and Yellow found ways to win games.

Opposite of the Texans' sole identity, the Steelers are almost identity-less, with an offense that is considered below average and a defense that while great when healthy, has been inconsistent at best this season. On paper, superstars like TJ Watt and Jalen Ramsey surrounded by Pro Bowlers like Alex Highsmith, Cameron Heyward, Keeanu Benton and Kyle Dugger give them one of the best rosters, they have had more than a few games this year where that was just not the case.

Winners of 4 of their first 5 games and final 5 games of the season, the Steelers had a great 6-3 record when in Pittsburgh this season. However, when breaking down their schedule they would have 4 home games against 8+ win teams this season and would be 1-3 in them, their only win coming in Week 18 over the Ravens.

My Prediction

I believe the oddsmakers are right on the money in this one and it should be a very low-scoring, defensive affair that the Texans will by a margin of one or fewer scores. The turnover battle will be crucial with both defenses being Top-4 in takeaways throughout the season and neither Quarterback being especially good at controlling the ball.

The fact that the Steelers weren't good at home, (against good teams) and the Texans have been red hot on the road lately, this one isn't very tough for me to predict as I can even see the Texans running away with it in the end. If I had to predict a score it would be something around 24-17 in favor of the Texans.

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Make sure to stay tuned as we continue coverage of the 2026 NFL Playoffs.

-Z.D.