World Cup Nation Tiers
- Zak Drapeau
- 4 minutes ago
- 7 min read
by Zak Drapeau
1. Favorites
Part 1
Spain
France
Portugal
England
I decided to split the "Favorites" group into two parts to show the teams I full expect to be competing for a spot in the Finals in Part 1, and the teams that are among the best squads in the world but I see having a hiccup somewhere along the way. All of the teams in "Part 1" are the top teams in terms of odds to win the World Cup.
Spain is the consensus number 1 with a lightning attack headed by the 18-year old phenom I've predicted will be the man of the tournament and are 2 years on from winning the EUROS 2024.
France is perhaps the deepest squad and have the experience factor, winning the fixture 8 years ago.
Portugal is another deep squad and being the final chance for Cristiano Ronaldo to win the Cup makes them almost a team of destiny.
England on paper may be my favorite blend of elite players and brilliant teamwork and chemistry and if they weren't historical "choke-artists" I'd have them as my favorites but as for now they're either 3rd or 4th for me.
Part 2
Argentina
Netherlands
Germany
Brazil
Like I stated earlier, "Favorites Part 2" are the teams I feel are elite but will experience some trouble or a hiccup on their way through the tournament or otherwise teams I just don't believe will win or even make the Finals, (completely dependent on Knockout Stage seeding.)
Argentina is your reigning champions and may be the best all-around attacking team in the world but with Messi getting older and their defense certainly the weaker point, I worry they'll lose a high-scoring game somewhere along the way.
Netherlands is always among the toughest squads in the world with probably the best midfield grouping. Looking to pass the ball around until they find a break somewhere will be great until they run into another nation with a pressuring tempo.
Germany's team is just like so many before it as a tough and neutralizing defensive team that will build from the back. Fittingly so, they are probably the strongest defense including GK Manuel Neuer in the world but with their offense almost solely relying on Kai Havertz, I think they lose a heart-breaking 1-0 game to go home.
Brazil is always tough to predict and is home to some of the best athletes the soccer pitch has today. Headed by Vini Jr. and Marquinhos with Neymar likely coming off the bench, this squad may be the most likely of the group to make the Finals but could also just as easily be shocked in the first round by a team that plays smart and doesn't let the Brazilians get in a groove.
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2. Contenders
Japan
Colombia
Senegal
Morocco
Norway
Croatia
Switzerland
The "Contenders" group shows the next 7teams that I'm not ready to say WON'T win the whole thing, but they certainly are not favored to. These squads are massively underrated for one reason or another and I could honestly see any of them reach as far as the Semi-Finals.
Japan is my dark horse for the 2026 World Cup and I've stated that several times. Their teamwork and blend of falling back on defense or pushing massively on offense is just brilliant and I believe they will AT LEAST be responsible for one massive upset before it's all over.
Colombia is always a threat and have been elite over the last two years under new coach Nestor Lorenzo. James Rodriguez was man of the tournament in 2014; could he do it again as the Captain of his country?
Teams like Senegal, Morocco, Norway and Switzerland may not have any of the World's best players but play with pace and skill and have great game plans under their managers. These teams were highly placed in the African and European qualifiers and should still be in form.
Croatia is one of the countries that can still challenge Netherlands for one of the best Midfields in the world but without a certain spark that should contribute to goals. They'll beat teams with conditioning and constant movement but one mistake could cost them a goal they can't come back from.
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3. Underdogs
Mexico
Uruguay
Belgium
Ecuador
Turkiye
Czechia
Austria
South Korea
The "Underdogs" tier is one for teams that could make a lot of noise if all the stars align but otherwise wouldn't be expected to go far. These teams will either benefit from easy fixtures in the Group Stage or will hope for favorable draws in the Round of 32.
Mexico is the first of the home countries to be named on this list and fittingly so are the best squad of the three. Headed by 28-year old Midfielder Edson Alvarez in his first time Captaining his squad at a major event, Mexico will look to score early and often with their duo of Raul Jimenez and teenager Gilberto Mora looking to set the tone for them.
Belgium, Uruguay and Czechia are teams that are always dangerous, but come into this tournament in weaker forms than we're used to seeing them. Usually sides that we'd see in a tier above this, I just feel as though the coaching or some of the key players aren't playing their best football right now and that will be shown in either the Round of 16 or the Quarter-Finals.
Ecuador and Austria are honestly just fine squads. I don't have anything great to say about them and I certainly don't have anything bad to say about them. They'll make the tournament and probably win a game. They won't make fools of their country by any means but probably won't do anything exceptional either.
Türkiye is one of the luckiest teams in the World Cup based on their Group placement and should coast to a 1st place finish. After that the seeding will become their biggest enemy but their attacking is as creative as it is erratic and will either pay off huge or fail disastrously.
South Korea is one of the teams I most strongly believe will benefit from their Group Play and should make the tournament with room to spare. They're play is fast-paced and often relies to heavily Son Heung-Min but they are a fun team I think could piece together a few wins.
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4. Looking For a Win or Two
United States
Canada
Iran
Australia
New Zealand
Paraguay
Sweden
Scotland
Egypt
Ivory Coast
Panama
Algeria
Uzbekistan
Bracket-busters was almost going to be the name of this tier but I decided on "Looking For a Win or Two" because that's realistically the most any of the teams can ask for. And when I say "Win or Two, I'm including Group Play teams as well because somehow or another, several of these teams may not even make the final 32 for the Knockout Stage.
I've chosen United States and Canada as the top two teams of this tier because they are host countries but let's face it, neither of them are strong sides. The United States may be one of the countries in Underdogs if they weren't facing so many injuries to key players like Chris Richards and Johnny Cardoso.
Iran is another team that has the benefit of one of the weakest Groups in Group G. I fully expect them to take 2nd place or possibly even 1st into the Knockout stage where from there they are completely dependent on hopefully drawing a weak side in the R32.
Australia and Paraguay are both in Group D which I've said could end up in any outcome possible with even enough teams. I have Turkiye and USA taking the top two spots and Australia being one of the 8, 3rd place teams to qualify but truthfully either of them could make the final spot.
I'm a lot higher on New Zealand than many others as they are one of the lowest rated teams according to FIFA entering the tournament. Another Group G beneficiary, I could see them even taking 1st place in their group with their counter-attacks.
The rest of the teams like Panama, Sweden, Ivory Coast, etc. will be concentration teams in my opinion. These are teams that at surface value could make 3rd place in their groups but will have to be completely in from with a solid game plan.
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5. Just Happy to Be Here
Fittingly, there are 12 teams in the "Just Happy to Be Here" tier which is the exact amount of teams the 2026 World Cup would expand by for this year's edition. Adding 12 teams makes the Knockout Stage much more interesting and gives more teams the chance to show off on a major stage, but means these teams have little to no chance of making it to the tournament but should look to make some waves in Group Play.
No disrespect to these 12 proud countries and the athletes that have busted their butts to make it to this stage but after diving into 25-32 teams before them, I'm comfortable in just saying these teams are likely not to see the tournament but maybe 2 or 3 Cinderella stories will make it to he R32.
Tunisia
DR Congo
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
Cabo Verde
Jordan
South Africa
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Ghana
Qatar
Haiti
Curacao
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Make sure to stay tuned as we continue coverage of the 2026 World Cup.
-Z.D.
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