Allen vs Lawrence in Duval: Bills at Jaguars Wild Card Preview

Joseph McLaughlin
3 hours ago
4 min read

Joseph McLaughlin

1/10/26

Sportz Nation

Photo Credit: Dominik Zawartko/Clutchpoints.

For the first time since 2019, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will be a visiting team in the Wild Card round as they travel to Duval County to face Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bills, after five consecutive AFC East championships, lost the division race to the New England Patriots and finished the season with a 12-5 record as the No. 6 seed.

The Bills will face a red-hot Jaguars team that ended their season with a 13-4 record, an eight-game winning streak, and their first AFC South title since 2022. The Jaguars’ current winning streak showcased their talent on both sides of the ball, but their biggest statement was a dominant 34-20 win over the Denver Broncos in Denver in Week 16.

These teams did not play each other in 2025. The last time they faced each other was last season in September, with the Bills winning in a blowout during Jacksonville’s 4-13 season. The Jaguars have completely changed since then, under the leadership of Liam Cohen, and now play host in one of the most competitive games of Wild Card Weekend.

Game Preview

To talk more about the Jags, they look like a complete team that hit their stride at the perfect time. Jacksonville has looked great in all three aspects of the game this season, especially in the last two months. The Jaguars' offense averages 350 yards per game, using an effective passing and running game.

Lawrence led the passing game with his third 4,000+ passing yard season this year. The fifth-year quarterback spread the wealth when throwing the ball, finding targets like Parker Washington, who leads the team with 847 yards, Brian Thomas Jr., and Jakobi Meyers, a mid-season trade from the Las Vegas Raiders, who completed their passing game.

The biggest star of the show, however, has to be Travis Etienne Jr. Etienne is a dynamic player who makes an impact both on the ground and through the air, earning his third 1,000+ rushing yard season in four years in the NFL this year and leading the team in receiving touchdowns with six. Etienne is going to be a focal point for Jacksonville against the Bills’ defense, which has struggled to contain the run this season.

Speaking of defenses, the Jaguars’ defense has improved drastically in the second half of the season. Jacksonville ranks 11th in the NFL in total defense but has climbed into the top five in various categories, including yards per game (277.2), takeaways (31), rushing yards per game (85), and points per game (19.8). A combination of a strong pass rush from Josh Hines-Allen and linebackers like Devin Loyd and Foyesade Oluokun has made this unit formidable.

The Jaguars' defense does not have an easy task, however, as they have to face Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense. The reigning MVP has had another stellar season, throwing for 3,668 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He is protected by one of the best offensive lines in football and has made great use of running back James Cook and tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.

The Bills' running game, led by Cook, has been the Bills’ go-to this season. Cook led the league in rushing yards with 1,621 yards on 309 carries and 12 rushing touchdowns. He will have his hands full with the Jaguars' run defense, however.

One thing the Bills lack is a star wide receiver, making their offense more one-dimensional than it has been in recent years. Josh Allen will have time to throw the football, but he will have to get creative against a defense that has found its stride.

My Prediction

This is another tight game, with the spread being razor-thin. As of writing this, the spread flipped from -1.5 in favor of Buffalo to the same margin in favor of the Jaguars, indicating this is seen as a toss-up.

I have sung praises about the Jaguars in this game because they look to be a more complete team than the Bills. That, on top of being at home with a passionate crowd, makes this a difficult task for the Bills. However, I am going to pick Buffalo to win this game.

My reasoning: I have two reasons. One is Josh Allen, who has been seen as one of the AFC’s elite quarterbacks in recent years. Now, with no Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Joe Burrow in his way, this feels like a must-win Super Bowl opportunity for Buffalo. The pressure is on for Allen, and I think he can handle it, at least for this week.

Another reason that will help the Bills is the Jaguars' one weakness: They are penalty-prone. The Jaguars have received the third most penalties this season, getting 128 yellow flags against them. I believe this will come in and play a factor in the most crucial part of the game, setting the Bills up for a game-winning drive. I see a 31-27 victory for the Buffalo Bills, and I will bet the over with it standing at 51.5 as of writing.

This game will be electric, and I expect it to be the best game of the weekend. Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence are playing their best football with great supporting casts around them. What more is there to be said? This is a must-watch football game. Kickoff will be at 1:00 p.m. EST in Jacksonville, FL, with the game being broadcast on CBS with Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, and Tracy Wolfson on the call.