Allen vs. Nix Rematch at Mile High: Bills vs. Broncos Divisional Round Preview

Joseph McLaughlin
6 days ago
5 min read

by Joseph McLaughlin

1/16/26

Sportz Nation

Photo Credit: Landon Haaf via Denver7Sports and AP Photo.

After a thrilling Super Wild Card Weekend, the NFL Playoffs are down to their final eight teams, all in search of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The Divisional Round weekend will feature four games, the first of which will pit the No. 6 seed Buffalo Bills against the No. 1 seed Denver Broncos.

The Bills and Broncos face one another in the postseason for the second consecutive year. In 2025, the Bills hosted the Broncos as the No. 2 seed in the Wild Card round, defeating the then-rookie Bo Nix and his team 34-10 in dominant fashion. Now the Bills, after their 27-24 wild-card win in Jacksonville, face a much tougher Broncos team this time in Denver.

A slim -1.5 Margin currently favors the Broncos, with the Over/Under set at 45.5. Denver is coming off a bye week as the No. 1 seed and the AFC West Champions for the first time since 2015. That season, the Broncos won three playoff games, including Super Bowl 50 against the Carolina Panthers. Now, the Broncos search for their first postseason win since that Super Bowl 50 title.

Game Preview

Starting with the visitors, the Bills’ offense performed well against Jacksonville. Josh Allen had another solid performance, completing 28 of 35 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 33 yards and scoring twice on the ground, one of them being the game-winner late in the fourth quarter. Allen earned a 108.7 passer rating and proved why he is Buffalo’s x-factor in the playoffs.

His supporting cast helped him down the field. Khalil Shakir caught 12 passes for 82 yards, Brandin Cooks had a resurgence, catching three passes for 58 yards, including a 36-yard strike that helped Buffalo down the field on their game-winning drive, and Dalton Kincaid continued to be a valuable weapon for Allen out of the tight end position, catching three passes for 28 yards and a touchdown.

The Bills did have success, but it was not easy. Star running back James Cook was stuffed for the majority of the game, being held to only 46 yards and averaging 3.1 yards per carry. The Jaguars’ defense was physical from the start of the game, making it hard for Cook to get moving. Allen was also banged up by the Jags’ defense, taking a hit to the head, jamming his finger on a throw, and still is dealing with a right foot injury he sustained against the Eagles in Week 17.

Things will not get easier this week for the Bills as they square off against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Broncos' defense allowed an average of 278.2 yards per game (2nd in the NFL), an NFL leading 28.9% conversion rate on third down, and a No. 1 35.7% scoring rate in the redzone.

The Broncos have also generated 49 total sacks and 14 takeaways. Nik Bonitto leads the team in sacks with 14, with Jonathan Cooper right behind him with 7.5 sacks. Other names to look for are leading tackles Alex Singleton (89) and Talanoa Hufanga (76), and Ja’Quan McMillan, who has three of Denver’s 10 interceptions.

The Broncos are strong in every category, and run defense is no different, allowing an average of 91 yards per game. Once again, the Bills will have to get creative in moving the ball down the field if Cook gets held up like he did last weekend. However, the Bills' offensive line has been solid this season, which is a good sign for Allen and his pass protection.

Denver is not only a defensive team, as their offense has been solid this year. Nix, in his sophomore season, has been solid, throwing for 3,931 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Denver, like Buffalo, also boasts a strong offensive line, allowing very few sacks and providing running back J.K. Dobbins with ample space to rack up 772 rushing yards this season.

Dobbins, however, will not be playing after sustaining a season-ending injury in November. The backs, RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin, will be the key factors against the Bills’ run defense, which is near the bottom of the league in every run defense category. They struggled to contain Travis Etienne Jr. and Bhayshul Tuton as the Jaguars racked up 154 yards on the ground a week ago.

Other names to keep an eye on offensively are Courtland Sutton, who had a 1,000+ yard season, Troy Franklin, who has been a reliable No. 2 receiver, and Marvin Mims Jr., who can play solidly at receiver and on special teams in the return game.

Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing/Imagn-Images.

My Prediction

This looks to be another close game, which this year’s postseason has not been short on. I believe this will become an instant classic between two teams eager to prove themselves. The Bills aim to make their third AFC championship game under head coach Sean McDermott, with a chance to play for a Super Bowl appearance for the first time since 1993. So, can the Bills get it done against the Broncos?

This, to me, comes down to the matchup between Allen and the Broncos’ defense. Allen is talented and has repeatedly shown why he is one of the best players in the NFL in clutch situations. It is tough to bet against Allen, and I originally thought of picking him to perform his usual heroics.

However, after examining this game further, I believe Denver’s defense will be too much for Buffalo to handle. I see the Broncos winning a tight one, 23-17, and the Under hitting in this one.

The Broncos are statistically one of the best defenses in the league, very similar to the Houston Texans, and we have seen what a defense like that could do against the Bills in Week 12’s 23-19 loss to the Texans. In that game, Allen was sacked eight times, and he threw two interceptions.

On top of that, the Broncos are rested and fare well at home, ending the season with a 7-1 record at Mile High. Sean Payton said after the Broncos’ playoff loss to the Bills last season, “We have to find a way to play these games at home.” Payton finally gets his wish, and I think the thin air will be a factor in this game.

If you loved the Wild Card Round, you are in for a treat this weekend. Regardless of how this game goes, I expect this game to be amazing from start to finish and to be talked about for years to come. The game will be broadcast on CBS at 4:30 p.m. EST with Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, and Tracy Wolfson on the call.