Can the Patriots Beat LA?: Chargers @ Patriots Playoff Preview

Matt Hylen
5 hours ago
5 min read

Photo Credit to Dominik Zawartko via Clutch Points

After finishing the regular season with a strong 14-3 record, the 2-seeded New England Patriots will be taking on the 7-seeded Los Angeles Chargers during Wild Card Weekend. Coming into this matchup, the Patriots are currently -3.5 point favorites with the moneyline sitting at -185. As for the Chargers, they are the underdog in this contest, coming in with a moneyline of +154.

The game is scheduled for Sunday night at 8:20 p.m. EST on NBC, with the gameday weather predicted to be 41 degrees and rainy.

So, can Drake Maye and the Patriots pull off their first playoff win in 7 years, or will Justin Herbert win the first playoff game of his career and lead the Chargers to an upset win in Foxboro? Let's dive into it.

Keys to the Game: Patriots

My first key to the game for the Patriots is to trust Drake Maye. This may seem obvious, but New England cannot shy away from what has been working solely to try and take the weight of playoff football off Maye's shoulders. Yes, this is his first time ever in the playoffs, but he has been playing at an MVP level all season long. Regardless of the opponent, this team needs to create a game plan knowing they put their 100% trust in Drake Maye to make the plays needed to win games. Too many times you will see teams in the playoffs limit their playbook or rely too much on short passing plays or run plays because they don't trust the QB to make down-the-field plays. New England needs to realize what got them here in the first place and trust that, though he may be young, Drake Maye is an MVP candidate for a reason and has earned the trust of everyone around him.

My second key to the game is the front seven needs to return to their elite form. When healthy, the Patriots have been the best rush defense in football. They went on a major stretch where they didn't allow a 50+ yard rusher out of the backfield, which is something no other team did this year for the length the Patriots did it. With Milton Williams likely to return to a normal workload and Robert Spillane likely to return, that means the majority of the front seven will be healthy. The only real concern is the status of Khyiris Tonga, who has yet to practice this week, and Harold Landry, who has

Been a limited participant all week. Nevertheless, having Williams and Spillane healthy again should allow for the defense to play at the level they are expected to against the run.

Last but certainly not least, the Patriots need to take care of the football. It seems as though Head Coach Mike Vrabel has gotten on top of the ball security concerns, which plagued New England during the first half of the season. In the second half, the turnovers have been minimal, allowing the Patriots to play the way they want to play. With that said, one turnover can completely change the landscape of a game in the playoffs; the Patriots simply cannot afford to fall behind due to preventable turnovers. This Chargers team may be banged up, but should not be taken for granted on either side of the ball. The offense is a vertical scheme, with the defense able to take advantage of the opportunities given to them. Thus, minimizing turnovers is that much more crucial if the Patriots want to come away with a victory.

Keys to the Game: Chargers

Photo Credit to John Locher / Associated Press

To start off, the Chargers need an answer for New England's rushing attack. Rhamondre Stevenson and Tre'Veyon Henderson are becoming a lethal 1-2 combo that Josh McDaniels is utilizing at an optimal level. LA's run defense has been great all season long, ranking as the 8th best in rush yards allowed per game, so it is a known commodity that they understand what it takes to stop the run. The Chargers have to understand that New England is going to want to prioritize the run early in order to set up the pass, so stopping that from happening in the first place will create a much easier opportunity to win possessions.

My second key to the game is to make Drake Maye beat you. This sort of connects to my first key for LA, but regardless of his regular season play, Drake Maye is still a young quarterback with zero playoff experience. He has yet to feel the atmosphere of the playoffs and the immense intensity it comes with. Is he a favorite for the MVP? Yes. Do I trust him wholeheartedly as a Patriots fan myself? Absolutely, but as I said, it is a completely different ballgame in the playoffs. LA has been able to win games all season long because of their swarming defense that is physical no matter what. Using that physicality as an advantage, especially in the run game, might throw New England

For a loop offensively. This is, of course, a risk, but if I am LA, I would feel much more confident making a 2nd-year quarterback with no playoff experience beat me than allowing the run game to get going.

My third and final key to victory for the Chargers is, of course, protecting Justin Herbert. With All-Pro tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt injured, the pass protection has been the Achilles' heel of the Chargers' offense all season long. To keep this short and simple: if Justin Herbert gets pressured at the rate he has been on average this year (3rd most) against a Patriots pass rush that isn't great, you will not win this game. However, if Herbert has time to throw the ball, the Patriots have been vulnerable to allowing big plays down the field. If anyone can overcome a bad O-line, it's Justin Herbert, but the line HAS to step up if they want any chance of competing against this Patriots team.

Who Wins?

Photo Credit to Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

This is an interesting game to try and predict, to say the least. On one hand, you have New England, which has completely turned the tides around on and off the field but is carrying very minimal playoff experience. Meanwhile, you have the Chargers, who have weathered the storm that is the injury bug all year long but have no track record of playoff success since they drafted Justin Herbert. Plus, with two top-tier quarterbacks going head-to-head alongside two top-tier coaches in Mike Vrabel and Jim Harbaugh, who knows what'll happen.

With that said, home-field advantage will reign supreme in this one. As a result, I am going to go with the Patriots to beat the Chargers and cover the spread, winning by a score of 28-20. I do think this game will start off slow and pick up later in the game, but it is way too difficult to bet against Drake Maye right now. Even without the playoff experience, his level of play, regardless of opponent, has been otherworldly if you consider the preseason expectations. Again, LA is no slouch and should make this game extremely interesting, but Justin Herbert's maiden playoff victory will have to wait until next year because the Patriots will be coming in with purpose.