Predicting UFC Shanghai - Nurmagomedov vs Song

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 8/28/2026

In our FN Hernandez v Rodrigues Predictions, which you can find here,

Zak went 3-3 in picks with 0 method for 3 points.

Matt went 2-4 in picks with 1 method for 3 points.

Points To Date:

Zak: 161 (109-63)

Matt: 148 (97-69)

*All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook on 8/27

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Graphic Credit to UFC via fighting.dk

3Umar Nurmagomedov vs

6Song Yadong

(Nurmagomedov -600)

Zak Drapeau -

The craziest part about this fight is even if Umar wins (which he probably will) and advances his Top-10 win streak to 3, he'll still be 3rd as a Bantamweight contender. This division is so stacked at the top that I'm glad Umar decided to stay active, and being that he fights a Chinese fighter in Shanghai, he's taking the risk.

Yadong is a very interesting matchup for Umar because he's shown that he does much better against wrestlers like Figueiredo and Cejudo and has losses to boxers like O'Malley and Yan. I do have Umar winning this fight but by a score of 3-2. If Yadong can keep the fight standing, and he's shown tremendous takedown defense in his last 5 fights (stopping 11 of 14 attempts), this fight will be A LOT closer than the -600 odds indicate.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Decision

Matt Hylen -

I think this fight is going to be a lot closer than people expect. Despite Umar Nurmagomedov's advantage on the ground, Song Yadong has shown me enough grappling ability to make me believe this will be a very interesting matchup.

The key to winning this fight if you're Yadong is maintaining distance and using your kicks to your advantage. Nurmagomedov constantly advances on his opponents, using the closure in distance which he creates to set up his takedowns. Yadong needs to consistently throw leg kicks to stop this advancement, setting himself up for combinations that will give Nurmagomedov trouble.

With that said, as much as I want to go with the hometown fighter, Nurmagomedov is simply too good. Coming out of the Khabib camp, Nurmagomedov has been shown every necessary tool to beat guys like Yadong. With his only loss being to the best Bantamweight of all time in Merab Dvalishvili, his control-type grappling will likely be too much for Yadong to handle.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Decision

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4Yan Xiaonan vs

13Denise Gomes

(Xiaonan -140)

Zak Drapeau -

Let's get back to our regularly scheduled programming of UPSET OF THE WEEK with Denise Gomes.

There was once a time when Yan Xiaonan was one of the most exciting flyweight fighters on the rise, but recently she's shown a significant chink in her armor. Xiaonan may only have losses to Zhang and Jandiroba in the last 4 years, but she's shown a propensity to get stifled by wrestling.

Denise Gomes has won 4 in a row and 6 of her last 7 at the young age of 26. Earlier in her career, she'd had issues with wrestlers and thus has shown a huge leap in her own wrestling in her last two wins against Pennington and Reed. Her biggest fight of her career should be another showcase of how far this young lady has come.

Prediction: Gomes by Decision

Matt Hylen -

Zak likes the upset, but I think people are forgetting how good Yan Xiaonan is.

Sure, Denise Gomes has been on a good winning streak as of late, but the names she has beaten don't move me. Xiaonan has faced and beaten stiffer competition than Gomes has, with her only recent loss being to Zhang Weili. The resume is there for Xiaonan, which I think matters a ton when you have fights of this magnitude.

Gomes has a bright future in this sport, but her time isn't now. Going from opponents like Tecia Pennington and Elise Reed to Yan Xiaonan is too big of a jump for her in my opinion. Xiaonan is coming off a loss, yes, but tends to beat fighters below her in the rankings. She has only fought the best, and I think she gets back on track to beat Denise Gomes.

Prediction: Xiaonan by Submission

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Aoriqileng vs

Kai Asakura

(Asakura -450)

Zak Drapeau -

The remainder of this card is a mixture of extremely well-rounded fighters, mostly around 125 pounds, who are either clinging to a ranking or desperately clawing to earn a number. Asakura and Aoriqileng are definitely part of the latter.

Asakura is a heavy favorite and may only be in his 4th UFC fight but has loads more experience in high-profile fights with fighters better than Qileng. Both fighters fight out of Asia, so Qileng's home country won't be much of an advantage, but it may not matter. Both of these guys may look for the instant knockout anyway, and if that's the case, I have to go with Asakura.

Prediction: Asakura by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

This fight will probably be quick but extremely fun. After being fed to the wolves to begin his UFC career, Kai Asakura is building himself back into a prospect the right way. He has looked fantastic lately, which I do not think changes against Aoriqileng.

Aoriqileng is a fun fighter with an interesting style, but lacks the quickness to even come close to Asakura. Asakura is absolutely rapid as a bantamweight, having moved up from flyweight in his last fight. That flyweight quickness, which clearly has not gone anywhere, is going to give Aoriqileng and the bantamweight a world of trouble.

Prediction: Asakura by TKO/KO

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11Alex Perez vs

Su Mudaerji

(Mudaerji -220)

Zak Drapeau -

The rematch of a fight ended by one of the worst low blows I've ever seen by Mudaerji, after he was clearly winning through the first 7 minutes. Now that they're running it back, presumably for Perez's #11 ranking, I expect this fight to be much cleaner and much closer.

I predicted Perez in the first fight, and even though he was getting washed, I still want to this time around. For him, it's all about the wrestling, and if he can get Mudaerji down and wear him out in the 1st round, he should coast to the end, but this is a different dude. Being that anything other than Mudaerji being on his back should lead to a win for the Chinese national, I have to go with him, likely by a dominant decision.

Prediction: Sumudaerji by Decision

Matt Hylen -

I am so glad we are getting this rematch, as the last fight was back and forth the enitre time. I would give the edge to Sumudaerji over Alex Perez before the groin shot that stopped the fight, but Perez still showed flashes that makes me think this is a pick 'em sort of matchup.

What Sumudaerji did so well last time against Perez is use his lenght and reach advantage to pick Perez apart. He used his kicks very well and his jab was on point all fight long. I expect this to happen once again, giving Perez a hard time finding the range and connecting on punches.

Perez is a very solid fighter with a good resume, but the lenght of Sumudaerji will likely be too much. Sumudaerji would have likely won the fight if he did not kick Perez in the grion, so it only makes sense to think Mudaerji will do something similar again.

Prediction: Sumudaerji By Decision

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Rei Tsuruya vs

Kevin Borjas

(Tsuruya -800)

Zak Drapeau -

This fight went from -550 to -800 as people pour onto the Tsuruya train. Tsuruya is as elite a grappler as you'll find in the Flyweight division and can finish people by strikes or submissions. Luckily for his opponent, he hasn't fought nearly the same competition as Borjas, but I don't think that will do him much good.

This fight is going to end before the judges can intervene, so the only question is how and how soon? Tsuruya should get multiple minutes on the ground for however many rounds it takes him. Borjas is a striker who just doesn't have the wrestling chops to stop him, and I believe that will get him in trouble and eventually lead to him tapping out or passing out.

Prediction: Tsuruya by Submission

Matt Hylen -

Another fun matchup that could go either way in my eyes. Rei Tsuruya is definitely the more talented fighter, but Kevin Borjas' win against André Lima showed me that he can still stick with the big guns.

Borjas has plenty of holes in his game, but he has enough power to turn a fight on its head. His record in the UFC may be terrible, but he is always in brawls that could have absolutely gone his way if he was able to connect on a major strike.

With that said, Tsuruya is a beast on the ground with an elite submission ability. If he can prevent Borjas from making this fight a brawl, he should be able to take Borjas down and submit him pretty easily.

Prediction: Tsuruya by Submission

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Jack Jenkins vs

Sean Woodson

(Woodson -150)

Zak Drapeau -

I have to tell you, as much as Tsuruya should be a lock at -800 and even Umar at -600, I think Sean Woodson is as much of a lock as anyone. Not only does Woodson have much better competition in his recent fights, including losing only 1 of his last 8 fights, but he has as big of a size advantage as I've ever seen.

7-inch height advantage and 10-inch reach advantage.

Now, Jack Jenkins has been known to be very good at getting inside bigger guys and landing shots, but I just don't think it matters when Woodson has the experience and skill to land at distance and stop any momentum Jenkins gets.

Decision: Woodson by Decision

Matt Hylen -

This matchup is one of the fights I am most excited for on this card. Jack Jenkins may not have a ton of talent, but man does he like to throw haymakers. Caution is not in Jenkins' vocabulary, which makes a fight against a technical fighter in Sean Woodson intriguing.

Sean Woodson has been out of the octagon for a while now, but his length for the division is absolutely massive. His legs are as long as anybody's at Featherweight, giving him the elite ability of maintaining distance with opponents. With Jenkins' striking style being the complete opposite of that, it'll be interesting to see how Woodson is able to make Jenkins fight his style of fight.

I am going to go with the more talented fighter in Woodson to win this fight. I think the possibility of Jenkins running into a huge shot from Woodson is high, which will end his night soon after.

Prediction: Woodson by TKO/KO