Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim Predictions

by Zak Drapeau

Sportz Nation - 6/5/2026

Graphic Credits to UFC via mmajunkie.usatoday.com

In our FN Allen vs Costa Predictions, which you can find here:

Zak went 4-1 (1NC) in picks with 1 method for 5 points.

Matt went 3-2 (1 NC) in picks with 2 methods right for 3 points.

Points To Date:

Zak: 94 (65-39)

Matt: 97 (64-40)

All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook on 6/4

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5Belal Muhammad vs

11Gabriel Bonfim

(Muhammad -120)

Zak Drapeau -

In my eyes, this is an incredibly even fight worthy of a Main Event, which, let's face it, we never see in Fight Nights anymore. Both fighters are great grapplers with heavy hands that have won fights with both disciplines and could cause their opponent this weekend to change their game plans on the fly.

Since Belal started training part-time with Khabib, he has been as elite as there is at 170 and has only lost to JDM and Garry in respectable decisions to the elite kickboxers. Now, with his first test against a true martial artist in over 3 years, the question is there if Belal is still as good as when he was in his mid-30s.

The ONLY difference between these two is the age, with Muhammad almost at 38 and Bonfim almost at 29. Bonfim has a win streak, yes, but with no one close to Belal's level or the fighters Belal has recently fought. With a huge step up in competition against a pure martial artist, I'm not sure what happens, but I'll definitely call this going to a decision. Since I have to choose, I'm going to say Belal takes it. I see a VERY even striking fight but with Belal earning more takedowns and probably controlling Bonfim for 4 or 5 minutes of the fight.

Prediction: Muhammad by Decision

Matt Hylen -

I am also very excited for this main event. This is a matchup between two very underhyped fighters that I think can make some noise in the Welterweight division.

For Belal Muhammad, he is the former champ looking to make his way back to the top. His reign was short-lived, but people tend to forget how good Belal is. His grappling is next level, his volume combined with his pressure is overwhelming, and he has shown to outstrike opponents that are gassed out. Muhammad has the resume and experience to warrant being the favorite in this fight.

Gabriel Bonfim, on the other hand, is a prospect that no one really talks about. He is absolutely dominant; he is well-balanced inside the octagon, showcasing power as well as submission skills. Bonfim has pulled off some pretty incredible performances, but the scariest part is that he finds a new way to finish his opponent each fight. Bonfim is a legitimate contender who I think can absolutely showcase his skill against Muhammad.

As Zak said, the age gap is wide, but that should not be an issue in my eyes. Muhammad doesn't seem to be on a decline in my opinion, making me believe he can win this fight should he control it. Yet, with that said, I like the young gun to shock the world on Saturday. His skills and balanced style are legit and will tag Muhammad in a way he cannot recover from.

Prediction: Bonfim by TKO/KO

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5Brendan Allen vs

Edmen Shabazyan

(Allen -215)

Zak Drapeau -

Brendan Allen is dope, that's all. As the #5 Middleweight contender, Allen could have waited for another top-5 matchup but instead accepted the fight when Dana and Campbell asked him to fill in because of an injury to Shabazyan's initial opponent, Jun Yong Park.

Will this "quick payday" fight cost Allen dearly and drop him in the rankings? Well, Shabazyan is a tricky veteran of the sport at only 28 years old with similar size and technique and also a similar "strength of schedule," surprisingly.

I believe Allen should take this fight if he implements his wrestling, which is superior to Shabazyan's for sure. Allen is one of those guys that will pressure strikers until he has them in his control and then just wear them out to a decision, and with Shabazyan being one of the worst grapplers he's faced in a long time, I actually believe he chokes him out once they're down there.

Prediction: Allen by Submission

Matt Hylen -

This matchup does not make the most sense to me; I figured Brendan Allen would have wanted someone in the top-5 next, as Zak said. Yet, that does not mean I do not think Edmen Shabazyan can make this fight competitive.

Starting with Allen, he is known for his balanced style but more for his grappling ability. His striking is much improved from previous years, but he finds the most success when he can take the fight to the ground. Once it is to the ground, you are not getting back up when Allen is on top. Allen should hold an advantage in the way that he has fought much better fighters than Shabazyan in his career. His grappling is levels above Edmen, which Allen can use to test Shabazyan's questionable gas tank.

As for Shabazyan, he may be able to capitalize if Allen continues his habit of inconsistency. Allen is prone to bad fights after going on win streaks, so if Shabazyan can keep the fight standing he has a good chance to make things competitive. Shabazyan is the better standup fighter, but he needs to stay on his feet if he wants any chance in this one.

I think this fight is closer than people think, but Allen eventually gets the job done. He has more experience against better competition, and should be able to get the fight to the ground and find a finish.

Prediction: Allen by Submission

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14Fares Ziam vs

Tom Nolan

(Ziam -330)

Zak Drapeau -

Fares Ziam is one of the best-kept secrets in the 155 division, probably because he's boring. His 6-fight win streak in the division has seen him smother opponents with wrestling and even win by TKO in 2 of his last 3 fights as he heads into battle with the HUGE for 155, Tom Nolan.

A relative newcomer to the UFC, having 5 fights in less than 2 years, Nolan is currently on a 4-win streak. He has the power to drop you and the grappling to submit you once you're down there. Truth be told, he could have a bright future in the division at only 26 years old, but he will have to start his path to being ranked again after this fight is over. Ziam is just too good and should be able to stick and move with ample control time when he feels like it on the way to a UD win.

Prediction: Ziam by Decision

Matt Hylen -

I don't think I am as high on Fares Ziam as most people are, but this should be a layup for him. He is a highly touted prospect within the lightweight division. This matchup makes me believe that the UFC wants Ziam to stay active and get a highlight-level finish so they can put him as a main event in France later this year.

Sure, Tom Nolan has some good momentum, is huge, and should be able to keep the distance between him and Ziam on the feet, but Ziam is levels above him in overall skill. Nolan is a dog, but that cannot really carry you against a guy like Ziam.

Out of respect for Nolan and the style he fights, I personally think Ziam will have a harder time getting a finish. Does that go against my theory? Sure, but again I am not as high on Ziam as most are.

Prediction: Ziam by decision

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Bryce Mitchell vs

Santiago Luna

(Mitchell -140)

Zak Drapeau -

If you like wrestling, this fight is for you... if you know, you know. Mitchell's loud mouth may distract you from the fact that he can really fight, but you should at least know that for his entire UFC career, and especially since coming down to Bantamweight, he has been one of the best wrestlers in his division. Originally supposed to fight Victor Henry this weekend, Mitchell instead has to fight the 21-year-old Santiago Luna on only 9 days' notice, who himself comes into this fight with a reputation, albeit a promising one.

Luna will be making his 2nd UFC appearance this weekend in a prominent fight with Mitchell, which alone should show you how the UFC feels about this man who is only 21 years old. Not to mention his 4" reach advantage in this fight, Luna trains with Entram Gym, which has been one of the fastest rising gyms in Mexico, home to fighters like Michael Morales, Edgar Chairez, and Andres Luna Martinetti. Luna's age may make you hesitant, but this guy is already one of the best wrestlers in his weight class, and that is not a hyperbole.

Everything tells me that I should take Mitchell for his ample experience, wrestling tenacity, and pedigree, but I'm gonna go against the grain and take the 21-year-old. Luna would have benefited from a full camp for sure, but his energy in the ring mixed with elite wrestling and surprising power in his punches means I not only think he gets the upset but finishes him too in a fight already, hilariously dubbed, "BorderBoy vs Border Patrol".

Prediction: Luna by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

Is Bryce Mitchell a bit crazy? Yes, but is he still an insanely skilled wrestler? Also yes. Do not sleep on Bryce Mitchell because he is one of the most dangerous fighters on the ground in the entire division. With that said, Santiago Luna is a fighter I truly think is bound for great things in the UFC and could make this extremely interesting on short notice.

With Mitchell, he is the more experienced fighter by a long shot and has fought much more dangerous opponents than Luna. As I said, his wrestling is legit with his submission game being among the most dangerous in the UFC. When Mitchell is on, he is so dangerous.

As for Luna, he is still so young and raw, but has untapped power waiting to be released. Coming into this fight on short notice is concerning, but Mitchell is iffy with his striking, which could benefit a KO threat in Luna when defending takedowns.

If Luna can be the initiator in this fight, I think he can get to Mitchell. On the other hand, the second Luna gets taken down the fight is likely going to be over. With that said, Luna is due for a breakout performance, which I think comes on Saturday.

Prediction: Luna by TKO/KO

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Iwo Baraniewski vs

Junior Tafa

(Baraniewski -400)

Zak Drapeau -

So this fight was SUPPOSED to be Baraniewski vs. Elekana, and I was REALLY down to watch that. Baraniewski has 3 fights in the UFC (including his Contender Series fight) and has spent a total of 2:17 in the Octagon with 3 KOs. With almost everything you could look for in a future World Champion, I have no doubt that Baraniewski steamrolls his way through the division until at least getting fights around the Top-7.

Poor Junior Tafa. I mean, on one hand, props to the guy for taking this short-notice fight against a killer like Iwo, but man, he's about to get slept. Tafa is already on the outskirts of this division, having only wins against the bottom of the barrel, and now may actually be released if this knockout is as bad as I think it will be. Tafa actually has a noticeable reach advantage in this fight, which he could use to his advantage, but in the end, he won't, and once Baraniewski closes the distance, I think he'll win in spectacular fashion again, and the only real prediction we have to make here is how long it will take him. I'm going to say 1 minute and 14 seconds... Matt?

Prediction: Baraniewski by TKO

Matt Hylen -

Why did Junior Tafa agree to do this fight?

To keep things simple, Iwo Baraniewski is going to outclass Tafa in just about any way he wants. Tafa unfortunately stands no chance, especially on short notice, against one of the heaviest hitters in the division. So, while I also respect Tafa for taking on this fight, he sadly is going to get absolutely battered by Baraniewski probably within round one.

Baraniewski is one of the most entertaining fighters we have in the entire UFC. After his legendary fight against Ibo Aslan, it told me everything I need to know about Iwo Baraniewski; he has a chin of steel, can come back from any fight, and has one-punch KO power that he wastes zero time trying to use. He is accurate as hell, mauling with his volume, and will get the job done against Tafa quickly in my opinion.

Prediction: Bareniewski by TKO/KO

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15Bruno Silva vs

Edgar Chairez

(Silva -135)

Zak Drapeau -

(Upset Alert) Well Kind of...

Chairez is only +115, but I always take an underdog for every one of these events, and Chairez is definitely this week's. Not to disrespect Bruno Silva, who's a dog, I just feel like Chairez is a meteor in the Flyweight division that is a future title contender, and if you don't believe me, his last two losses are to Josh Van and Tatsuro Taira.

Silva is one of the more exciting fighters in the division and one of the rare Flyweights to see his fights end in a finish more than a decision, but his last fight with Charles Johnson was a 3-round war that makes me think he has implemented a new style. Regardless, Chairez has phenomenal jiu-jitsu, and Silva's history makes me think he will jump too quickly into a bad position on the ground to try and end the fight and get caught.

Prediction: Chairez by Submission

Matt Hylen -

I am a little surprised the UFC decided to match up two gatekeepers against each other. Both Bruno Silva and Edgar Chairez aren't really going anywhere in the upward direction, but are still fun fighters with good striking.

This should be a back-and-forth affair, but I do think Chairez is more on the decline than Silva is. Chairez may have some good moments, but I think Silva will control the fight on the feet and pick Chairez apart for three straight rounds.

Prediction: Silva by Decision

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-Z.D.