First Four Predictions

by Zak Drapeau

Sportz Nation - 3/17/26

Photo by Jarod C. Tilton/ Getty Images

16UMBC

vs 16Howard

to face 1Michigan

Tuesday at 6:40 pm

One of the only 2 teams to ever win a March Madness game with a #16-ranking, UMBC faces off against Howard in the first First Four game. As a slight favorite vs Howard, UMBC is led by their back court pairing of Jah'Likai King and Ace Valentine who together average 27-7.5-5.5 on 44% shooting. Together with some great role playing from forwards on the team, UMBC has won 12 in a row including winning the American East tournament as the #1 seed.

Howard University on the other hand has won 11 of their last 12 and took the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament Championship. Led by SF Cedric Taylor III and SG Bryce Harris who both drop 17 a game and PG Cam Gillus orchestrating the whole thing.

When it comes down to it I like Howard in this one with Cedric Taylor as the clear best player on the court and play a much flashier takeaway-centered defense that could separate the two teams down the stretch.

Prediction: Howard

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Photo by Dustin Safranek/ Imagn Images

11Texas

vs 11NC State

to face 6BYU

Tuesday at 9:15 pm

Texas is led by future-NBA draft pick Center Matas Vokietaitis who's size and work down low get him 15.5 and 7 a night. Backing him up is Dailyn Swain who's two-way ability and wingspan along with slashing ability has helped him lead his team in scoring. Playing in the tough SEC conference landed Texas with only an 18-14 record while going out in the first round of the SEC tournament but gave them a chance to still get in tomorrow.

In the same situation as Texas, NC State was a decent but not good enough team in the ACC conference. Unlike Texas is the spread nature of the Wolfpack's offense with the 5-6 man rotation they give 70% of the minutes working together well and moving the ball around.

While the team play of NC State is much more balanced and better as a team, I have to give Texas the slight edge here as a deeper team with a true Center that should dominate the boards.

Prediction: Texas

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Photo by Maria Lysaker/ Imagn Images

16Prairie View A&M

vs 16Lehigh

to face 1Florida

Wednesday at 6:40 pm

Lehigh is a decent favorite in this one and the Patriot conference Champions of 2026. Led by their 1-2 punch of Guard-Forward combination of Nasir Whitlock and Hank Alvey who really stand out among non-Power 5 conference teams. While the team doesn't have a lot of depth to it, when Whitlock and Alvey are on the court they tear it up. Alvey clears 15 and 7 a night with Whitlock being the main scorer at over 21 points per game.

For Prairie View, they'll be making only their 2nd tournament in the last 28 years after winning the SWAC Tournament. Winning 9 of their last 10 games mainly behind tremendous defense led by SF Cory Wells, Prairie View will be looking to keep the tempo of this game methodical and to give the ball to their Point Guard Dontae Horne who orchestrates as well as he scores.

Lehigh is the favorite and probably have the best 2 players on the court for this game but I'm gonna go with Prairie View. Their defense will be the difference maker I think and if either Whitlock and Alvey have a bad game this one could be straight forward.

Prediction: Prairie View A&M

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Photo by David Buell/ Getty images

11Miami (OH)

vs 11SMU

to face 6Tennessee

Wednesday at 9:15 pm

This is the one we are all waiting to see for obvious reasons. After an insane 31-0 season while being looked down on the whole time, Miami of Ohio went out and lost in the first round of the MAC tournament and barely even made the First Four. Led by a deep rotation of Guards that keeps scorers on the court at all time, Miami comes alive at the end of games and is one of the best in the country at coming out on top in a close game.

SMU may have half of the notoriety of Miami (OH) this year but is still a huge -320 favorite in this one. Led by one of the best backcourts in the country, PG Kevin "Boopie" Miller and SG B.J. Edwards who are as good on offense as defense. Right now, the Mustangs are on a skid, losing 5 of their last 6 and are 9-11 since the new year.

I realize Miami (OH) got "fluke" wins and are battling a team with a star backcourt but this game will be tight. In the end I LOVE Miami (OH) +7 for odds but will have to take SMU outright with Edwards and Miller likely taking this game over late.

Prediction: SMU

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-Z.D. (@DrapeauZak on Twitter)