Grading EVERY Lottery Pick From the 2024 NBA Draft
- Joel Piton
- 1 day ago
- 12 min read
by Joel Piton - Sportz Nation - 2/17/2026
With roughly two years of sample size now behind us, it feels like the right time to
revisit what was widely labeled one of the weakest NBA draft classes in recent memory. That's a pretty bold narrative, and development in the NBA is rarely linear, especially for players barely old enough to buy a drink. In today’s environment, where immediate impact is what perception, patience has become increasingly rare. A player with early struggles and low impact can quickly turn into harsh judgment, and entire classes can be branded disappointments before growth has a chance to take place.
So is the criticism justified, or are we rushing the evaluation? As these lottery picks continue to evolve, let's take a look at both early production and long-term potential. A closer look is in order to see which prospects are validating the skepticism and which ones might simply need more time.
Zaccharie Risacher (ATL) — C
Age: 20
Height: 6'8"
Position: SF
2025-26 Stats: 10.4 PPG · 3.5 RPG · 1.3 APG · 44.4% FG
Evaluating the No. 1 overall pick is tough, and it always comes with amplified expectations. While some Hawks fans have questioned whether Atlanta selected a role player rather than a future star, the full picture remains more nuanced. Risacher’s rookie season was very solid. He produced efficient scoring, showed comfort in a complementary offensive role, and demonstrated the foundational skills that made him appealing as the top pick—spacing the floor, attacking closeouts, and playing within structure. For much of year one, he looked promising. This year, however, has caused concern. A slight dip in production and efficiency despite being a full time starter reopened questions about ceiling. His game remains fundamentally sound, but it lacks a defining trait that excites defensive attention or creates star-level impact.
That doesn’t equal bust territory. Risacher still offers size, shooting potential, and positional value that teams covet on winning rosters. The evaluation at this stage centers less on whether he can play— because he clearly can—and more on whether he can evolve beyond a complementary player that shoots corner threes. Was this simply a safe pick for Atlanta? Or is their investment signaling long-term belief that he can be something greater? The next phase of his development will determine everything. And after all, the kid is only 20 years old. If the Hawks trust him, maybe we should too.
Alex Sarr (WAS) — A-
Age: 20
Height: 7'0"
Position: C
2025-26 Stats: 17.2 PPG · 7.8 RPG · 2.8 APG · 49.6% FG
Alexandre Sarr represents the modern prototype at center. A 7-footer with mobility, defensive range, and expanding offensive skill, he entered the league carrying expectations as another highly skilled French big capable of redefining positional limits the way Wemby does, and early returns suggest that projection was well founded.
Defensively, Sarr’s impact is phenomenal. His timing as a rim protector, ability to move in space, and comfort switching across actions give Washington a defensive anchor with real versatility. Averaging 2.0 swats per night, he consistently alters possessions even when he doesn’t record the block.
Offensively, Sarr's skillset is just begin to blossom. Sarr has shown comfort operating in both pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop scenarios, flashes passing instincts that keep the ball moving, and owns a smooth shooting stroke that extends beyond the paint. The combination of mobility and touch creates matchup problems that few young bigs can replicate. With continued development, Sarr projects as a foundational frontcourt piece capable of anchoring both ends of the floor. The tools, scoring ability, and long-term versatility all point toward a player who is still only beginning to tap into his ceiling.
Reed Sheppard (HOU) — C+
Age: 21
Height: 6'2"
Position: SG
2025-26 Stats: 12.7 PPG · 2.6 RPG · 3.0 APG · 42.5% FG
Reed Sheppard’s rookie season raised real concerns. Limited production, inefficient scoring, and making history for all the wrong reasons with a stint in the developmental league. All this created early skepticism for a top-three pick expected to contribute quickly. The narrative shifted fast, and questions about his long-term role surfaced almost immediately. Year two has looked much different: this is not the same Reed.
Sheppard has responded with noticeable offensive growth, emerging as a legitimate scoring option capable of lighting a team up off the bench. His feel for the game, shot-making confidence, and ability to operate as a combo guard have allowed him to settle into a more confident rhythm, leading to a meaningful jump in production.
Opportunity has played a role as well. With backcourt minutes opening up due to VanVleet's injury, Sheppard has shown he can shoulder more responsibility and provide consistent scoring bursts. The shooting, which has always been his calling card, has begun to stabilize his overall impact. Questions about ultimate ceiling and long-term fit remain, but the trajectory is trending in the right direction. After a difficult start, Sheppard has re-established himself as a player capable of becoming a reliable offensive contributor for a competitive team.
Stephon Castle (SAS) — A
Age: 21
Height: 6'6"
Position: PG
2025-26 Stats: 16.6 PPG · 5.0 RPG · 6.9 APG · 46.9% FG
The Spurs may have found another gem for the foreseeable future. Stephon Castle has looked every bit like a high-level guard standout, showing early signs of the two-way impact that make him a coveted selection in San Antonio's clutches. His blend of athleticism, defensive intensity, and competitive edge fits seamlessly within San Antonio’s identity. Castle’s defensive versatility stands out immediately. At 6'6, he has the size to guard multiple backcourt matchups, disrupt passing lanes, and apply consistent pressure at the point of attack. Offensively, his explosiveness allows him to attack the rim with confidence, and his rebounding activity adds another layer of value rarely seen from guards.
The questionable skill remains perimeter shooting, but the willingness to develop that part of his game is evident. As his jumper continues to progress, his overall profile becomes increasingly difficult to scheme against. Castle already impacts winning through defense, energy, and versatility. If the shooting reaches a reliable level, the path to being on All-Star trajectory becomes very real—making him a pick that could save this draft-class from being labeled weak entirely.
Ron Holland (DET) — C
Age: 20
Height: 6'8"
Position: SF
2025-26 Stats: 8.1 PPG · 4.3 RPG · 1.4 APG · 41.8% FG
Ron Holland entered the league with high hopes after an eye-catching run with G League Ignite, where his athleticism, relentless motor, and defensive upside made him one of the most intriguing wings in the class. His ability to play above the rim and impact games with energy drew lofty comparisons to the likes of Andrew Wiggins, Paul George and Jaylen Brown. But so far, the transition has been uneven.
Offensively, efficiency has been a challenge. Holland has struggled to finish at the rim with the same consistency he showed pre-NBA, and the perimeter shot remains to be seen. Limited three-point production (23%) has allowed defenses to sag off, narrowing his offensive impact and making his scoring more situational. Perhaps the bigger disappointment has been defensive. The disruptive, high-impact defense with the Ignite hasn’t translated at the NBA level yet, though recent stretches have shown encouraging progress as his minutes increase. At just 20 years old, the tools that made Holland a top-five selection are still evident, but the evaluation reflects expectation versus early production. The upside remains significant; the next step is being consistent as a modern NBA player, and that means finding a jumpshot.
Tidjane Salaün (CHA) — D+
Age: 20
Height: 6'10"
Position: PF
2025-26 Stats: 6.3 PPG · 4.3 RPG · .8 APG · 50.0% FG
Tidjane Salaün remains more of a project than a finished product at this stage. His rookie season production was limited, with inefficient scoring and a relatively small offensive role making it difficult for him to stand out on a nightly basis.
There has been measurable improvement in year two. His efficiency has taken a noticeable step forward, particularly as a spot-up option, where his shooting percentages—including encouraging progress from three—suggest growing comfort in Charlotte.
Still, the overall impact has been mediocre, and I haven't seen anything exciting from this prospect. Salaün currently profiles as a rotation forward who can provide rebounding, spacing, and occasional scoring off the bench, but he has yet to demonstrate a defining skillset or consistent two-way skills that elevate his evaluation.
He's 6'10" so the physical tools and shooting improvement keep the door open, but for now, the grade reflects limited production and unanswered questions about his ceiling.
Donovan Clingan (POR) — B+
Age: 21
Height: 7'2"
Position: C
2025-26 Stats: 11.7 PPG · 11.4 RPG · 2.1 APG · 52.5% FG
A double-double nightmare, Donovan Clingan has translated his winning profile at UConn into immediate NBA impact. The two-time NCAA champion has been relentless on the glass, using his size, positioning, and motor to consistently control possessions and anchor the interior. At 7'2, Clingan brings exactly what teams hope for from a modern center who embraces physical play. Averaging strong rebounding numbers while producing efficient scoring around the rim, he has become a stabilizing presence for a team pushing for the playoffs. Clingan ranks third in rebounding league-wide and also sits in the top twenty in field goal percentage. His efficiency reflects smart shot selection, strong hands in traffic, and reliable finishing in pick-and-roll situations.
What makes Clingan especially intriguing is the expanding skill set. He has shown flashes as a passer out of pick and roll situations and surprising confidence stepping beyond the paint, with noticeable growth as a perimeter shooter compared to his rookie season, quadrupling his three point makes. The foundation is already clear: rebounding, interior scoring, and defensive size translate. If the shooting and playmaking continue to progress, Clingan projects as more than just a traditional big, but a long-term frontcourt anchor with significant upside.
Rob Dillingham (CHI) — C-
Age: 21
Height: 6'3"
Position: PG
2025-26 Stats: 4.1 PPG · 1.4 RPG · 1.8 APG · 35.8% FG
This one carries the hurt, because we know the talent is there. Rob Dillingham entered the league as one of the shiftiest, most dynamic shot creators in his class—a guard built on quickness, creativity, and the ability to generate separation at will. The handle, the pull-up game, and the confidence all suggested a natural born scorer.
But opportunity has been hard to come by. In Minnesota, Dillingham found himself buried behind an established guard rotation, limiting his minutes and making it difficult to find rhythm. With roughly limited run, his production remained poor, and the scoring never had enough space to fully materialize in Minnesota.
And now the challenge continues in Chicago with roster context. Surrounded by other scoring guards (Ivey, Simons, Sexton) competing for similar roles, Dillingham still lacks a pathway to consistent minutes. All this makes his evaluation difficult—not because of his ability, but because of environment. He's young and the talent remains real, and players with his level of shot creation rarely disappear entirely. For now, though, this grade reflects stalled momentum more than diminished talent. His trajectory will depend heavily on role clarity and sustained opportunity.
Zach Edey (MEM) — A-
Age: 23
Height: 7'3"
Position: PG
2025-26 Stats: 13.6 PPG · 11.1 RPG · 1.1 APG · 63.3% FG
Injuries have been the primary obstacle in what still projects to be a highly productive NBA career for Zach Edey. The back-to-back national college player of the year entered the league with a clear identity, and much of that likeness has translated early.
At 7'4, Edey remains a constant mismatch around the rim. His touch, physicality, and ability to control space gives Memphis a reliable interior option, and he has shown more mobility than we could have anticipated. There have even been encouraging signs of outside shooting that hint at a broader offensive ceiling than we thought, considering he didn't make or attempt any threes until his senior year at Purdue.
Defensively, there is still room for growth. Given his size, consistency as a rim protector and overall defensive impact will be key to unlocking his full value at the next level. The biggest challenge so far has been availability. Limited games due to injury have slowed early momentum, but the underlying production suggests Edey can develop into a dependable double-double presence. If he stays healthy, this pick still carries strong long-term value for Memphis.
Cody Williams (UTA) — C
Age: 21
Height: 6'8"
Position: SF
2025-26 Stats: 5.9 PPG · 2.5 RPG · 1.0 APG · 47.2% FG
A year ago, I would have given Cody Williams’ somewhere between a D to an F. Limited production and inefficient scoring raised real concerns about his NBA readiness, making his rookie season difficult to evaluate positively. But this year has told a different story. Williams has taken a noticeable step forward, particularly on the defensive end, where his length, instincts, and activity increasingly mirror the disruptive wing profile that made him an intriguing prospect. He’s showing the ability to guard multiple positions, deflect shots, and impact plays at the rim.
Offensively, progress has followed. A developing mid-range game and improved finishing at the cup have helped stabilize his efficiency, with his field-goal percentage climbing from 32% to 47%. The scoring volume still isn’t high, but the trajectory is.
Utah’s been hot and cold this season, yet Williams’ growth—maybe not in the scoring column but on the defensive side—has made him a more functional two-way contributor. Whether or not he has his brother's ceiling is a question that remains, but this season represents meaningful momentum after a difficult start.
Matas Buzelis (CHI) — A-
Age: 21
Height: 6'8"
Position: PF
2025-26 Stats: 15.0 PPG · 5.4 RPG · 2.1 APG · 47.0% FG
Matas Buzelis looks every bit like a modern NBA forward. A true three-level scorer, he has shown comfort finishing inside, attacking off the bounce, and spacing the floor as a catch and shoot threat. Offensively, he can play either forward spots. What separates Buzelis is the two-way profile. At 6'10 with real mobility, he offers switchability, defensive awareness, and weak-side rim protection and he's given high-impact defensive performances. He plays above the rim, moves fluidly in space, and consistently impacts possessions without needing the ball.
There's a maturity to his game that makes projection easy. Buzelis doesn’t rely on one defining skill—he has multiple and contributes across offense and defense, building the foundation of a long-term starter or a high-level complementary star. With Chicago heavily invested in guard play, Buzelis has a clear runway to grow into a central forward role. If his offensive consistency continues to improve, this pick has the potential to age extremely well.
Nikola Topic (OKC) — C
Age: 20
Height: 6'6"
Position: PG
2025-26 Stats: 5.5 PPG · 2.0 RPG · 1.5 APG · 55.6% FG
Nikola Topic’s early NBA journey has been defined by hardship more than it has by basketball. After tearing his ACL before his rookie season began and being forced to miss the year, Topic faced another major challenge with a cancer diagnosis that required treatment and kept him away from the game even longer. His eventual NBA debut this season was less about immediate production and more about perseverance, and it was a moment many around the league were eager to see.
On the court, Topic remains in the early stages of his development following extended time away. He clearly has immediate feel for the game and will be an intriguing prospect at the point guard spot, his size, pace, and passing are what we'll look at.
But at this stage, the evaluation is incomplete. We're wishing him all the best as is NBA career begins, and if he can stay healthy, Topic still possesses the foundation of a guard capable of growing into a meaningful role over time.
Devin Carter (SAC) — C-
Age: 23
Height: 6'2"
Position: SG
2025-26 Stats: 6.3 PPG · 2.3 RPG · 2.0 APG · 37.4% FG
Hailed as one of the fastest players in the draft, Devin Carter’s speed has translated immediately. His burst off the dribble makes him difficult to contain at the point of attack, and his downhill pressure creates looks at the rim. In transition or on the drive, Carter flashes the kind of speed that invited comparisons to De’Aaron Fox, exciting Sacramento’s long-term outlook. That said, Carter remains a work in progress offensively. His perimeter shooting has been a clear limitation, with defenses willing to sag off and force him to prove he can shoot. This has negatively impacted his role, often capping his minutes and preventing him from fully securing a starting spot.
To his credit, Carter has shown defensive effort and competitiveness, easing early concerns on that end. But with efficiency hovering around the mid-30s from the field and the three-point shot still developing, the offensive consistency simply hasn’t been there yet. The tools are there—elite speed, rim pressure, defensive motor—but until the shooting improves, Carter profiles as an energy guard whose long-term ceiling will depend heavily on offensive growth.
Bub Carrington (WAS) — B
Age: 20
Height: 6'4"
Position: PG
2025-26 Stats: 10.1 PPG · 3.6 RPG · 4.6 APG · 40.0% FG
Bub Carrington was immediately inserted into Washington’s rotation as a rookie, appearing in all 82 games which is an impressive feat for any 19-year-old, especially an undersized combo guard adjusting to the brutal speed and physicality of the East. While his overall field-goal efficiency remains a work in progress, Carrington has already shown value as a quick-trigger scorer capable of producing both on and off the bench.
He can comfortably toggle between either guard spots, has showcased strong playmaking instincts, and has proven to be an unusually active rebounder for his position. Carrington’s mid-range scoring stands out as one of the more polished elements of his offensive profile, and his catch-and-shoot ability gives him clear long-term utility. If the efficiency continues to trend upward, Carrington projects as a guard who can stick in rotations for a long time—with the versatility to impact games in multiple ways.
Just two years in and the early returns are starting to take shape, but the story of this class is just getting started. We've seen similar criticism in the past, but time heals all.
Are these evaluations landing where they should be, or are we being too tough on a group still finding its footing? Which of these lottery picks has the tools to rise above the rest, and is there a future All-Star—or even a Hall of Famer—hiding in this class?
Let the debates begin.
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Thanks for reading!
-Joel Piton
(@jpiton7)