Is A.J. Brown Worth a 1st Round Pick from the Patriots?

Zak Drapeau
May 28
7 min read

by Zak Drapeau

Sportz Nation - 5/28/2026

Photo Credits to Bill Streicher via Imagn Images

Who is A.J. Brown?

A.J. Brown is a supremely talented Wide Receiver who has proven he can be a #1 option on a Super Bowl winning team. 6 seasons over 1,000 yards in 7 years and at his peak 3 years ago, was around 100 catches, 1,500 yards and 10 TDs.

He started his career on the Tennessee Titans from 2019 to 2021. In his tenure as a Titan his per season averages were 14 games, 62 catches, 998 yards and 8 TDs.

In 2021, he would be traded on Draft Day to Philadelphia, (foreshadowing) for a 1st Round Pick. Right away in Philly, Brown made his claim to be one of the best receivers in the game. In his first two seasons, Brown would grab 194 catches, 2,952 yards and 19 TDs. Then in the 2024/25 season, even in a lower-used role would help lead his team to a Super Bowl championship.

While the Eagles were winning in 2025, Brown's frustration was boiling. With the addition of Saquon Barkley that year and the emergence of Devonta Smith, Brown's usage was dramatically lowered and the star receiver was not shy about voicing it. He would constantly go to Twitter and make cryptic messages while making it known he'd like to be traded.

After the 2026 season in which he did a bit better statistically but the team's success was much less, Brown and the Eagles all but agreed to honor his request as moving on would be best for both sides.

Early reports are that the Eagles want a 1st Round pick in the 2027 draft and more for Brown. Brown will be 29-years old by the start of next season and should be firmly in his prime for the 2026 season.

Contract

As far as contracts go for top-end receivers, A.J. Brown's is pretty mild. His total numbers left on his deal are $87.5 Million owed over 3 seasons or just over $29 Million per year, (certain roster bonuses could increase the deal up to about $93 million or $31 million per year.)

If Brown makes those bonuses which he is more likely to than not, his $31 Million AAV would rank 10th in the league in current values.

One of the bigger values to focus on is the duration of the deal; 3 years. For a 29-year old Wide Receiver that is still talented but has seen two seasons of underwhelming performances, (whether that be because of Philly's scheme or not) the biggest question the Patriots should be asking is, "How long can A.J. Brown remain elite?" With only 3 years on his deal guaranteed, the Patriots mitigate most of that risk with his final year only coming in Brown's age-31 season.

Photo Credits to Ashley Landis via Associated Press

Upside

Many will just look at Brown's statistics over the past two years and see how he fell from 1,400 yards and 90 catches per year, to about 1,000 yards and 70 catches per year.

What you won't see is his play-by-play ability to stretch defenses and his win rate with the ball in the air. Brown is one of the best receivers in the game at getting leverage over cornerbacks and using his size and speed to win his routes. He is just as dangerous within 10 yards as he is 20+ yards down the field.

His ability to win jump balls even at 6'1" is a premier talent as well, winning "54.8% of his contested catch possibilities", per PFF.

Brown's upside as a New England Patriot should also factor in his fit within the team. In 2025, the Patriots ranked #4 in pass yards per game with Drake Maye cementing himself as one of the QBs of the future. Along with Maye having a great year was the 1-year rental of Stefon Diggs who grabbed 85 catches for 1,013 yards and 4 TDs.

Diggs is a very good receiver but at 32-years old was a bit past his prime and still managed a 1,000 yard season, even though he wasn't the clear #1 option. Brown will be 29, the absolute #1 option, out for revenge after his time in Philadelphia and in my opinion has always been a more talented receiver than Diggs anyway.

If Diggs went for 85, 1,013 and 4 last season. I don't see why Brown doesn't improve on each of those numbers. There is something to be said about him only getting 2 months of practice with the Patriots, (if he does get traded on June 2nd like we all expect) and how that could lead to him having a slow start. Even if he does, by the end of the season I can easily see him averaging 7, 100 and a TD per game.

One extra point I haven't made is Drake Maye and the Patriots desire to throw the ball deep. Last season, Maye had a 72% completion on deep throws and led the league in yards per attempt at 8.9. Brown is an excellent medium and deep throw target with speed and contested catch ability. His fit in New England could be perfect for what the team is looking for on offense.

Injury History

While Brown isn't considered "fragile" or "injury prone", he has had several injuries that were either serious or lingering that are worth noting when taking on his contract, especially for a high draft pick.

In 2024, Brown would miss 3 games due to a hamstring injury he claimed was a result from "overworking himself" but reports suggest he still deals with the lingering pain to this day. He would also suffer a "knee issue" but played through it all the way through his Super Bowl win.

Last season in 2025, the hamstring issue would flare up again and cause Brown to miss Philly's Week 8 game vs the Giants and linger through their Week 9 BYE.

Brown is regarded as healthy right now but has a reputation of lingering knee problems. While this hasn't prevented him from missing any significant time, at 29-years old it's unlikely he fully recovers and gets over this chronic issue fully. Knee injuries are also some of the toughest injuries to recover from and typically stay with a player throughout their career.

Is He a Diva?

The other concern about Brown to his suitors is his character, often being pictured in the media as a "diva". Now this is speculative to anyone and can differ case-by-case but in my opinion, I'd say his character shows to be more passionate than "diva-ish".

Brown wants to be a premier talent at his position and there is nothing wrong with that. The biggest problem he had was his dramatic fall of targets from the 2023 to 2024 season, from 158 to 97. The team was so good and had a much better run game that season that the Eagles chose to mix up their play calls and spread the ball more, which may have upset Brown but inevitably led to a Championship.'

Everyone will say, "you still had a good season", "you guys won a Super Bowl" and it isn't all about you", and those sentiments could be correct. However, like A LOT of receivers in the league today, Brown is uber-competitive and believes in his ability and wants the ball. There's nothing wrong with this thought as long as it doesn't affect the team and it's chemistry.

While there's evidence Brown's outspoken behavior was a nuisance in the Eagles' locker room, many of his teammates and coaches have nothing but praise for him. I think the "diva" talk was more about the Media trying to paint another NFL Wide Receiver in this light and less about how the team actually felt about him.

Photo Credits to Wesley Hitt via Getty Images

Is He Worth It?

So we've answered the question; is Brown worth his contract and the answer is Yes!

Now we have to ask, should the Patriots answer the Eagles price tag of a 2027-1st round pick and possibly more? To answer that, let's look at the Patriots' current status as a team and their recent draft history.

The Patriots team success in 2025 was unexpectedly brilliant, as the former 4-13 squad went 14-3 and made it to the Super Bowl. Much can be said about their "easy road" to the big game but they can't be questioned as one of the top contenders for the Championship in 2026 in the AFC. Their roster is largely made up of non-Superstars but after the 2026 offseason including the NFL Draft and Free Agency, they have very few holes on their team. One of the only holes they would have has to be at Wide Receiver.

The Patriots also have a VERY reported history of drafting BUSTS for 1st round Wide Receivers or at least did during the Belichick-era. They also have drafted their Franchise QB and (hopeful) franchise offensive Tackles in the last three, NFL Draft 1st rounds.

So let's ask this; "Is there someone the Patriots could draft in the 2027-1st round that would make as much of a difference as A.J. Brown?" In my opinion the answer is NO.

What I Would Do

First of all, I would do everything in my power to negotiate the trade down. Offering deals like, "2027-2nd round pick, 2028-3rd round pick and Kayshon Boutte" or another player.

Second of all, I would use the much-publisized trade rumor to New England to my advantage. If every team assumes Brown is a Patriot already, maybe the Eagles don't have any better offers and the Patriots can offer less. With the Eagles NFL Draft choice of Makai Lemon in the 1st round of 2026, it's clear they're ready to move on and perhaps has painted the Eagles into a corner where they have to unload Brown for whatever the Patriots will offer.

I believe the Patriots will get A.J. Brown on June 2nd, for less than a 1st-round pick.

I also believe that he is worth a 1st-round pick if completely necessary but that the Patriots should exhaust every possibility, including to bluff pulling out of the deal to get under that threshold.

A.J. Brown will be the Patriots leading receiver in 2026, probably get close to 1,400 yards and 10 TDs and will help the Patriots get back to the PLayoffs in 2026, and in the midst of a growing dynasty in New England, could be an instrumental part of their future.