March Madness Sweet 16 Predictions
- Zak Drapeau
- Mar 25
- 5 min read
by Zak Drapeau
Sportz Nation - 3/25/2026
1Duke vs 5St. John's
Prediction: Duke
Duke has been underwhelming at best this tournament and now come head-to-head with their toughest opponent. St John's struggled against Darryn Peterson and Kansas on Sunday and now will have to contend with an even better offense headlined by Cameron Boozer who's averaging 21 and 12 so far in the tournament.
Duke is favored by 6.5 which I'd love to bet against. I have Duke because at the end of the day I don't trust St. John's to score more than 75 against Duke and at some point their "defense wins" scheme will run into an offense that's just too good.
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2UConn vs 3Michigan St
Prediction: Michigan St
Karaban and Reed Jr have been MONEY so far for Connecticut but I can see the duo of Carr and Fears Jr for Michigan State really stealing the show in this one. Coen Carr has been shooting 67% from the field for Michigan State and Jeremy Fears Jr is averaging 10 points and over 13 assists per game this tournament.
UConn got lucky in Round 1 with Tarris Reed's unbelievable performance and in Round 2 they faced a Furman team that came out cold as ice in the second half. This time they will go up against Tom Izzo's latest edition of Spartan basketball and while they could run into some trouble on the glass, the Spartans should show they are the better team in the end.
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4Nebraska vs 9Iowa
Prediction: Iowa
Iowa's win over Florida was... unforeseen to say the least but gave them momentum I think could really effect their next game with Nebraska. Nebraska is the favorite and the higher-seed and on paper have the better talent with Hoiberg, Sandfort and Mast holding down each level on the court but Iowa has that Cinderella factor this year that you reallt can't count out.
Their ability to rely on their defense and coast into an unselfish offense where the extra pass is always made really intrigues me. I don't think they get any father that next round but against a team like Nebraska, Iowa can definitely win again as long as they keep playing as the team they have been.
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2Houston vs 3Illinois
Prediction: Houston
Houston is giving up 52 points per game and is the Number 1 defense of the tournament after being the Number 2 defense in the Regular season. Houston will have to be specifically defensive on the frontcourt with Illinois big men.
Speaking of their big men, Mirkovic and Ivisic have been lighting it up the first two round averaging 31 points and 20 rebounds combined. Unfortunately for them, Houston's Chris Cenac and Joseph Tugler have been on a roll these past weeks and as long as Houston doesn't have a complete off night, should negate Illinois main identity and overwhelm them to a win.
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1Arizona vs 4Arkansas
Prediction: Arkansas
This should be the best game of the round and a battle between possibly the 2 best Head Coaches in the nation. Calipari has his Razorbacks playing some unbelievable offense in the first two rounds and his star Guard Darius Acuff Jr is averaging 30 and 6.5.
Arizona is the pristine example this season of well-balanced. Arkansas have the best frontcourt left and seem to have a higher drive so far this March. This game should come down to either Overtime or an amazing final minute of the game and it could go either way but I'll take Acuff Jr. to rise among the pack in the end.
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2Purdue vs 11Texas
Prediction: Purdue
I believe the winner of this matchup will go to the Final Four and beat either Arizona or Arkansas. This intense game will be won in the paint and more specifically, whether Texas' Center Vokietaitis has his way or if Purdue's frontcourt can stop him.
Purdue's entire starting 5 is averaging over 10 points aside from Center Oscar Cluff who may be the best defensive Center in the tournament and will almost surely slow down if not neutralize Texas's big man on their way to another Elite-8.
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1Michigan vs 4Alabama
Prediction: Michigan
In my Round of 32 predictions I took Texas Tech over Alabama and BOY was I wrong. Well, Imma double down and take Michigan for the same reason, they're the better team. Plus, the difference between Texas Tech and Michigan is monumental.
Michigan is a well-oiled machine and have by far the best offense in the tournament and they'll be playing Alabama who had the best offense in the regular season. Anything will go in this one especially around the last 5 minutes of the game where I'm betting Michigan finishes stronger by just a few points.
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2Iowa State vs 6Tennessee
Prediction: Iowa State
Tennessee has one of the best 3-balls of the tournament led by Ja'Kobi Gillespie at 25 points per game. They've also beaten 2 great team in Virginia and Miami (OH), and even sportsbooks have them within 5 points of Iowa State.
The Cyclones on the other hand have been having a new best player almost every game for the past 3 weeks. Led by Junior Forward Momcilovic and Guard Tamin Lipsey, the Cyclones clearly have the better roster and better stars in this one. Whether Tennessee's momentum or the Cyclones skill rises to the top is the question but I have to go with the favorites who will have one of their stars go off like they have been.
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-Z.D. (@DrapeauZak)
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