Predicting UFC 328

Sportz Nation Staff
5 days ago
8 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 5/8/2026

In our Fight Night Della Maddalena vs Prates Predictions which you can find here,

Zak went 4-2 in picks with 1 method for 5 points.

Matt went 6-0 in picks with 5 methods for 11 points.

Points To Date:

Zak: 80 (55-32)

Matt: 87 (56-31)

*All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook on 5/6

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CKhamzat Chimaev vs

3Sean Strickland

(Chimaev -600)

Zak Drapeau -

Sean Strickland is one of the best fighters in the UFC at managing distance and using his striking to keep his opponents off balance, but Khamzat Chimaev is like no one he's faced. Chimaev was elite when he was still a "prospect" but has transcended that status over the last year and a half now that he's recovered from injuries and brought in special dieticians and trainers.

Chimaev's wrestling has accounted for 25 minutes of control time in the last 28:34 he's been in the octagon against Robert Whittaker and the former champ DDP, whom he ragdolled. It's not a case of if Chimaev can get past Strickland's defense, but when, and if Strickland will have any answers as to how to get back up besides the bell ringing.

Prediction: Chimaev by Submission

Matt Hylen -

I honestly believe is anyone is to beat Khamzat Chimaev, its Sean Strickland. With that said, Chimaev may be unbeatable right now with how elite his grappling is.

We all know what Chimaev can do on the ground, but he may have to show a bit more on the feet in order to win this fight. Strickland is one of the hardest fighters in the entire UFC to take down, so I do not think it will be easy for Chimaev to get into his comfort zone.

If Strickland wants to win this fight, he needs to put pressure on early. He simply cannot be forced backward; the second Chimaev is able to force an opponent to the back foot, it usually is over for them. However, nobody thought Strickland would be able to fend off Anthony Hernandez, so even though Chimaev is a different beast, it is still something to consider.

Overall I think Strickland has a really good shot if he can stay on the feet, but no one has been able to do that against Chimaev.

Prediction: Chimaev by Decision

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CJoshua Van vs

3Tatsuro Taira

(Taira -170)

Zak Drapeau -

Fun Fact: This is the youngest combined age of any two fighters competing for a UFC Championship in history!

In my experience, the fighter that has an edge in wrestling, has had more high-level fights, and has a considerable size advantage will win fights more times than not, and Tatsuro Taira checks off all three boxes here.

I don't want it to sound like I give Van no shot. He is a very well-balanced fighter whose takedown defense is elite and could serve him well if Taira tries to bring the fight to the ground, but I also believe at some point he'll get him there. More than that, the size advantage he has makes me think that in one of their wild exchanges, he's gonna clip Van just like he did Moreno and become the UFC's first Japanese champion.

Prediction: Taira by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

I think this was absolutely the fight to make for the Flyweight title. Both Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira are on absolute tears and have shown why they deserve to be in the spot they are in currently.

Van definitely holds the advantage on the feet in my opinion. He's shown time and time again that he can take a punch just as well as he can throw one. His hands are fast and creative, with his combos always a mix of head and body shots.

As for Taira, he should want to get this fight to the ground quickly. Being the submission artist he is, I think he holds a severe advantage if he can get Van to the back foot and land a takedown.

With all that said, this fight should go back and forth for the entire five rounds.

Prediction: Van by Decision

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2Alexander Volkov vs

4Waldo Cortes-Acosta

(Volkov -175)

Zak Drapeau -

I think I am more excited for this fight than any on the card, and it's because of the differences in styles between these two great heavyweights and the fact that the winner could see a title shot in the future, even if that's a while down the road. With the way the top of the heavyweight division looks with Tom Aspinall coming back, the winner of this fight may not get a title shot for a year or two, but they'll definitely be in contention.

Will this be a 3-round decision where Volkov uses his height and slight reach advantage to strike from a distance and win on points, or will WCA make Volkov look like a Rock'em Sock'em Robot? I do believe that Volkov could even attempt takedowns to expose WCA's lack of experience on the ground as well as distance striking. Maybe he gets clipped a few times, but eventually, his experience will bring him the decision.

Prediction: Volkov by Decision

Matt Hylen -

This has to be a title eliminator at Heavyweight. Of course, you will have the winner of Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane fight for the undisputed title next, but after that, the winner of this fight will be next. Since the stakes are so high, I think we see the best versions of Alexander Volkov and Waldo Cortes-Acosta that we have seen to date.

For Volkov, his size gives him an advantage over anyone. His 6'7" frame and 80" reach make him a problem for anyone on the feet. Volkov is also often underrated as a wrestler; he has had plenty of fights where he has controlled it on the ground pretty handily.

As for Cortes-Acosta, his striking is among the best in the entire division. He may have some trouble getting inside the pocket, but his power is otherworldly with one shot able to put an opponent out. Volkov's chin has declined a bit over the years, so if WCA can land something of significance on him, it could be over quickly.

Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by TKO/KO

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6Sean Brady vs

9Joaquin Buckley

(Brady -160)

Zak Drapeau -

Joaquin Buckley is a great boxer who has definitely improved his grappling over the years but made his name off a 6-fight win streak where he would also beat overrated guys. cough cough, Colby Covington, cough cough. Sean Brady, on the other hand, has taken down a lot more established fighters but, similar to Buckley, has fallen short when faced with the cream of the crop.

This fight will also see a size advantage for Buckley, who has a 4" reach advantage and, in my observation, a slight grappling advantage for Brady. If this fight were to stay standing, I give the edge to Buckley, but I don't believe it will, as both fighters could look to score takedowns or control time against the fence. With both fighters' wins looking worse and worse as the days go on and both coming off losses to some of the best in the world, this win would mark the high point of either man's career, and I'm gonna have to go with Brady on the assumption he lands something like 4 of 13 takedowns and wins on control time.

Prediction: Brady by Decision

Matt Hylen -

When this fight was announced, I did not really understand why it was happening, but I am here for it. With Sean Brady and Joaquin Buckley being the complete opposite style fighters, it'll be interesting to see which one will control this fight.

In terms of who has the advantage, it is pretty straightforward: Brady holds it on the ground while Buckley holds it on the feet. Brady will likely dominate if he can take down Buckley, but Buckley could finish this fight early if he can replicate what Michael Morales did against Brady in his last fight.

I am going to be a bit bold with this one; I think Buckley can get the job done. Sure, he was dominated by a grapple-first fighter in Kamaru Usman, but my hope is that he learned from his mistakes and took this camp to really hone in on his takedown defense. Plus, Brady got chinned once against Morales and it was game over.

Prediction: Buckley by TKO/KO

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Joel Alvarez vs

14Yaroslav Amosov

(Amosov -175)

Zak Drapeau -

Another fight in the Welterweight division will see longtime Lightweight contender turned Welterweight Joel Alvarez mix it up with the former Bellator Welterweight champion Yaroslav Amosov. Amosov has only been in the UFC for 6 months and has only one win, but with his previous experience in Bellator and his flawless submission of Neil Magny, it's clear this dude is legit.

This matchup is interesting because Amosov will certainly look for a takedown early, but Alvarez has made a habit of chain wrestling and transitioning either to a dominant position or back to his feet. Alvarez has great grappling, a wealth of more UFC experience, and has looked even better since moving up weight classes, but Amosov is different. His favorite submission is an anaconda choke from half guard, and if Alvarez doesn't get the Ukrainian off him in a hurry, I see him either choking him out or even winning via ground and pound.

Prediction: Amosov by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

I love this matchup for both sides. Joel Alvarez and Yaroslav Amosov have deserved a big fight like this for some time now, so I am glad the UFC is finally giving them the opportunity.

In terms of styles, I feel that both Alvarez and Amosov are pretty balanced. Even though Amosov leans towards grappling a bit and Alvarez favors more striking, both are very solid anywhere the fight goes. Since Alvarez holds the power and striking advantage, I definitely see Amosov utilizing his control ability and going to the clinch a lot. Yet, Alvarez thrives in dirty fights and is most dangerous when it comes to those sloppy exchanges.

I think this is a really close fight to call, but I feel that Alvarez can hold his own enough on the ground to open up his striking.

Prediction: Alvarez by Decision

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Grant Dawson vs

Mateusz Rebecki

(Dawson (-175)

Zak Drapeau -

My pick for fight of the night, Mateusz Rebecki, is almost on the Michael Chandler level of every fight being a war, including 3 FOTN awards in a row, and Grant Dawson is surely game to make this one as much about the fans as it is about the rankings. What should make the winner up next for a ranked fight, this will be a scrappy and wrestle-heavy fight between two veterans.

Grant Dawson will have a noticeable size advantage in this one, with 3" of height and 5" of reach separating the two. That advantage, along with his odds, should lead me to pick him, but with Rebecki's style and both fighters' knack for violence, this becomes a complete coin flip. Dawson may be higher in the rankings, and Rebecki has lost 3 of his last 4, but I'm going to take the underdog in this one, and I'll even double down and say it will be a knockout during a wild exchange.

Prediction: Rebecki by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

As Zak said, this fight has a huge chance of being a brawl. I think the wrestling will be extremely fun to watch, but I predict this fight to be won by whoever can dominate on the feet.

Looking at their styles, both Grant Dawson and Mateusz Rebecki's wrestling and grappling ability will likely cancel each other out. Their BJJ is also very solid, which could be a factor should it be utilized.

With all that said, Rebecki, who has lost three of his last four, may not be the fighter he used to be. I think Dawson will have more confidence coming into this fight, thus giving him an advantage when it comes to applying pressure. Pressure will be everything in this fight, so if Dawson can do that against a crafty veteran like Rebecki, I would assume he can get the job done within the final horn.

Prediction: Dawson by TKO/KO

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