Predicting UFC Fight Night Costa vs Allen

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 5/15/2026

Graphic by UFC via UFC.com

In our UFC 328 Predictions which you can find here,

Zak went 3-3 in picks with 2 method for 5 points.

Matt went 2-4 in picks with 0 methods for 2 points.

Points To Date:

Zak: 85 (58-35)

Matt: 89 (58-35)

*All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook on 5/11

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8Arnold Allen vs

12Melquizael Costa

(Allen -140)

Zak Drapeau -

Costa is taller, younger, has a bigger reach, and has much more momentum than Allen from their previous fights. The thing is, even though Mel Costa is one of the biggest risers in the Featherweight division, he's never faced anyone like Arnold Allen. The former #3 Featherweight in the world may have lost 3 of his last 4, but they were to some of the best in the division and a lot more highly regarded than Costa.

Allen has only lost to Jean Silva, Max Holloway, and Movsar Evloev in his 14-fight UFC career. He did look noticeably worse in his last fight against Silva after a 17-month layoff, so it's worth wondering if we'll see a repeat performance in this one, and if he does, Costa is too dangerous of a striker not to capitalize. Costa also has a bit of wrestling to his game that he should hold over Allen. I think that Mel Costa will start to pull away towards the championship rounds after Allen wins the first round or two and finishes him on the ground.

Prediction: Costa by TKO

Matt Hylen -

Do I think this fight shoule be a main event? Not necessarily, but this is what we have become accustomed to at the UFC Apex. With that said, Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa are two powerful strikers that present your classic prospect vs veteren matchup.

Allen is one of those fighters that has been there and done that. With a very impressive resume, Allen is a weathered fighter that has gone to war with some of the elite. He is tough as nails, uses his kicks and knees very effectively, but did not look as sharp in his return fight against Jean Silva. I am going to blame the ring rust for that and choose to believe we will see the version of Allen we're accustomed to.

Allen has no small feat ahead of him, though. Mel Costa is one of the bigger prospects in the UFC, with a winning streak against decent opponents. With his last two fights ended in crazy KOs, Costa provides his opponents a problem on the feet at any point. The crazy aspect of Costa's game is that he has always been a grapple first fighter, but has found some unreal power on the feet.

I typically go with the young guns in these sorts of fights, but my gut is telling me otherwise. I think Allen will be much improved since his loss to Jean Silva and figure out a way to outclass Costa on the feet. Will I regret this when Allen gets TKO'd in round 1? Probably, but I am going with my gut, which tells me Allen will be the better of the two come Saturday.

Prediction: Allen by Decision

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Doo-ho Choi vs

Daniel Santos 

(Santos -160)

Zak Drapeau -

This fight was supposed to happen in late 2025, but Choi experienced the second knee injury of his career, and we had to wait until now. His last fight in 2024 before his injury was a beatdown of Nate Landwehr, and if he returns in the same condition, it should be an excellent matchup for Daniel Santos.

Santos is coming into this fight with a 3" height and reach disadvantage but has momentum on his side with a 4-fight win streak, including 2 wins since Choi's last fight. His nickname of "Korean Killer" is fitting after stopping two Korean risers in the UFC in his last two fights, and I think he'll add to that resume after this one and stop Choi.

Prediction: Santos by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

Though Doo-ho Choi and Daniel Santos are not household names, the matchup and clash of styles could make for a very fun fight.

Choi is a UFC veteran that is extremely inactive, but is super exciting when he fights. He is extremely dangerous on the feet with his fast and powerful boxing with the ability to knock his opponent out in one flurry. As for Santos, he has been on a bit of a tear recently, winning his last four fights in a row. He is the definition of a scrappy striker who is unafraid of making fights sloppy or reckless.

I do not see this fight making it to the final horn; both Choi and Santos are far too powerful and throw way too much for this fight not to end with someone getting TKO'd at the very least. With that said, I think one of these guys is up for a nice return to the octagon.

Prediction: Choi by TKO/KO

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Matthew Wellmaker vs

Juan Diaz 

(Wellmaker -300)

Zak Drapeau -

I have been quietly keeping a tradition in this series of predicting the UFC cards by taking at least one underdog for almost every card, and this may be one of my favorites. Juan Diaz is making his UFC debut this weekend after a long championship legacy in Mexico's Lux Fight League at +240 odds, and I LOVE IT.

I don't want to undersell Wellmaker, who was tearing up the UFC before being stopped by Ethyn Ewing, who took the fight on 2 days' notice. However, Diaz is a beast and a relentless pressure striker. We'll see how Wellmaker's reach and size advantage stifles Diaz's attack, but I believe the favorite will be on his back foot the entire fight. I could be really wrong, as shown by the odds, but I believe this card will be the coming-out party for Juan Diaz and a stepping stone to a ranked eliminator very soon.

Prediction: Diaz by Decision

Matt Hylen -

Anytime Malcolm Wellmaker is fighting, it is must-see TV. Despite the shocking loss his last time out, I am a huge fan of his game and still firmly believe in his potential in this sport. However, Juan Diaz could present him with an even bigger challenge than Ethyn Ewing did.

Starting with Wellmaker, he has ungodly power in his right hook but is also extremely quick. He utilizes the leg kick well but also the body shots to ultimately land a hook to the head. Everything he throws is to set up that right hook, which either makes him predictable (like it was against Ewing) or a highlight-level striker. As for Diaz, he is coming off a spinning elbow TKO on Dana White's Contender Series, which earned him the contract. He is a regional champion with solid striking and quick hands. He does lack power in his hands, but his craftiness with the elbows does help him land strikes.

Sometimes, a young fighter will need to lose in order to unlock their full potential, which I think we see out of Wellmaker on Saturday. That loss to Ewing was not bad at all considering the run Ewing is on; I think Wellmaker will learn from his mistakes and perform at a level we haven't seen before from him.

Prediction: Wellmaker by TKO/KO

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Modestas Bukauskas vs

Christian Edwards

(Bukauskas -340)

Zak Drapeau -

This fight was supposed to be a very even and intense battle between Bukauskas and Rodolfo Bellato, but due to "undisclosed reasons," Bellato pulled out, and Christian Edwards will make his UFC debut on FOUR DAYS' NOTICE.

Edwards is a badass and deserves a lot of praise for stepping in like this, especially against a guy like Bukauskas, who has been dominating the lower ranks of light heavyweights. Edwards is a 27-year-old trained by Jackson Winklejohn and has a history of working hard in the cage. I would like to see where his career will go in the UFC with the right matchups, but this one is just too much for the kid too soon.

Prediction: Bukauskas by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

I like this matchup a lot for both parties. The winner will likely get a ranked eliminator fight next, but the style clash is what I am really intrigued by.

Modestas Bukauskas has become a sort of top-15 gatekeeper for a while now. He is not a pressure striker in the slightest, but does have solid hands that hold good power. His inability to put pressure on his opponents has always been his downfall.

As for Christian Edwards, he went 5-3 in Bellator and as Zak said, was just announced to be fighting Bukauskas. He is pretty balanced in terms of striking and clinching, but has yet to have that breakout performance.

With Edwards not having a proper training camp, this should be a rather easy win for Bukauskas. He is the better striker, has the better resume, and should be able to land a shot or two that could put Edwards out.

Prediction: Bukauskas by TKO/KO

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5Ketlen Viera vs

11Jacqueline Cavalcanti 

(Cavalcanti -170)

Zak Drapeau -

Cavalcanti is one of the reasons Women's Bantamweight has been one of the best rising divisions in the entire UFC. A straight-up striker with elite takedown defense that has only been tested once and still managed a 5-0 record in the UFC.

She'll take on one of the most experienced women in the entire UFC, Ketlen Vieira. A true martial artist, Vieira has faced the best and in her career only lost to the absolute best. I believe she uses her grappling and toughness to weather the storm Cavalcanti is expected to bring. Can the veteran take down the riser and slow her down before Cavalcanti can get comfortable swinging away? I believe so. I think Vieira defies the odds and stakes her claim as still deserving of being one of the best women fighters in the world.

Prediction: Viera by Decision

Matt Hylen -

Due to the styles of both Ketlen Vieira and Jacqueline Cavalcanti, I can't promise and say this will be the most exciting fight in the world, but it will be a very important one.

Vieira is typically a bit boring, but is overwhelming to opponents when she gets you in the clinch or on the ground. She does not hunt finishes and usually will get outclassed by a fighter that specializes as a striker or a grappler. Cavalcanti, on the other hand, is a decision merchant but is on a pretty big win streak. Again, she does not hunt the finish very often, but does know exactly what she needs to do to win no matter the opponent.

Ultimately, this should be a striking matchup that features a lot of time against the cage. Yet, if the fight stays standing, I will lean towards the better striker in Cavalcanti to get the job done.

Prediction: Cavalcanti by Decision

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Cody Brundage vs

Andre Petroski 

(Petroski -205)

Zak Drapeau -

I think it's absolutely crazy that Cody Brundage is already competing in his 3rd fight of 2026, even if he did lose the first two. That being said, both of these fighters have not had their hands raised much and can be looked at as on their last legs with the promotion.

Why not then literally and metaphorically swing for the fences and give the crowd and fans what they want to see? Just kidding, this fight will see some dirty boxing followed by clinch work and probably a takedown or two, more likely from Petroski. I'm a big fan of Cody Brundage as a person, and if you haven't seen him on podcasts, you should go check it out. But when Petroski wins a boring decision in this fight, I believe we will see Brundage released from the promotion after 16 fights in 5 years.

Prediction: Petroski by Decision

Matt Hylen -

How Cody Brundage continues to get employed by the UFC is beyond me, but here he is again against a solid opponent in Andre Petroski. Both are on losing streaks, but should possess enough to give some sort of an interesting fight.

Brundage is absolutely washed. Sure, he is very active, but just keeps losing over and over again. His striking is poor and he has no ground game, so it is hard to pick a place where the fight goes that he holds the advantage. As for Petroski, he is on a two-fight skid who famously knocked himself out when attempting a takedown, but he is still a pretty solid grappler. He is a control-heavy wrestler who will likely dominate the fight the entire way through.

Prediction: Petroski by Decision

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