Two Games In—No Clear Favorite. Buckle Up for Game 3

Joel Piton
Jun 10
3 min read

by Joel Piton 6/9/2025 FansOnlySportz

Game 2 is in the books, and with the series now tied 1-1, the 2025 NBA Finals have yet to reveal a true frontrunner. While the Thunder boast the deeper, more talented roster on paper as well as the league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—it’s the Pacers who walk into Game 3 with aggression after stealing a win on the road. Tyrese Haliburton’s Game 1 heroics and the gritty loss in Game 2 have kept this series unpredictable and wildly entertaining. But in a matchup that’s already felt one-sided, one question lingers: does this Finals showdown pass the eye test? Was Game 1 a real victory for Indiana, or were we just waiting for OKC to swoop in and close things out? With as many as five games left to go, one thing is clear—this series is far from over, and both teams are equally hungry for the crown.

Game 2, by contrast, was never much in doubt. The Thunder responded exactly as they needed to, dominating on their home floor and erasing any lingering frustration from their narrow Game 1 loss. Indiana’s only lead came early in the first quarter, and while the Pacers impressively saw seven players reach double figures on good efficiency, they couldn’t match OKC’s tempo or break through their defensive intensity. The box score won’t fully capture the story—this was a total team effort from the Thunder on the defensive end. Constant pressure kept Indiana from getting into their offensive rhythm, forcing rushed decisions and limiting clean looks all night.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with a commanding all-around performance—34 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds, and 4 steals—while earning multiple trips to the free-throw line, much to the dismay of Pacers fans. And while some continue to label him a “free-throw merchant,” Shai is well over 50% shooting from the field in this series and his high-level playmaking is telling a different story. He was a force on both ends, doing everything you could ask of a lead guard—and at 6'6", his size gave Andrew Nembhard and Tyrese Haliburton fits when trying to contest his midrange looks. Meanwhile, OKC’s eminent defender Alex Caruso embraced a larger offensive role, proving he’s capable of being a 3 & D glue guy. Off the bench, Nick Wiggins provided a critical spark, matching Caruso’s offensive output and shooting lights-out from beyond the arc. If the Thunder bench continues to click like this, Indiana could be in for a long Game 3—and perhaps an even tougher series ahead.

Statistically speaking, I’m leaning toward the Thunder taking Game 3. While it’s Indiana’s first Finals home game, OKC has handled hostile environments before. The Thunder are 23-19-2 against the spread as road favorites this season, while the Pacers sit at just 5-6-1 in that role as home underdogs. More concerning for Indiana: they’ve dropped back-to-back Game 3s at home this postseason—against both Cleveland and New York—and are 0-3 in Game 3s overall. The Pacers face a real uphill climb. T.J. Mcconell comes off the bench with both efficiency and passing, but his game is too similar to Haliburton's. Pascal Siakam’s 17 points per game simply aren’t enough, even with his defensive value. Haliburton has flashed his shooting touch, but as long as he remains a pass-first player, the Pacers lack a true pure offensive player. With five starters sharing the offensive load without a clear perimeter go-to threat, Indiana’s cohesion has suffered—Game 2 exposed that.

And then there’s Shai. The Pacers still have no answer for him, especially if he's going to keep getting to the free-throw line at this rate. OKC’s backcourt remains lethal, and while Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein didn’t dominate defensively in Game 2, their sheer size continues to present matchup problems for Myles Turner and Siakam. Bottom line: OKC remains the more complete team. This doesn't erase Indiana's title hopes, however. The Pacers' roster is loaded with shooters who will thrive at home—and if they catch fire, this game could shift in a hurry. Their bench is capable of putting pressure on any team on any given night. Don’t forget, this is the same team that dismantled Cleveland just a month ago. Game 3 tends to be the tell-all—and this one isn't a guaranteed lock.

Game 3 tips off on June 11th at 8:30 PM, and it’s shaping up to be a pivotal matchup in what’s already been an unpredictable Finals series. No matter which way it swings, you won’t want to miss it. And don’t worry—we’ll have you covered every step of the way right here at Fans Only Sportz Network. Stay tuned for live updates, predictions, analysis, and everything you need to know as the Finals heat up.