UFC 326 Predictions

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 3/6/2026

In our predictions from last week which you can find here for Moreno v Kavanaugh,

Zak went 5-1 with 3 methods right for 8 points.

Matt went 5-1 with 3 methods right for 8 points.

Points to Date:

Zak: 36 (24-8)

Matt: 33 (22-10)

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

*All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook as of 3/6/2026

Graphic by UFC via UFC.com

3 Charles Oliveira vs

4 Max Holloway

(Holloway -225)

Zak Drapeau

The BMF belt will be decided for the 5th time in its history and for the 3rd time by Max. This time with Charles Oliveira as his opponent, there's all but a guarantee for a finish and for fireworks.

I don't believe Charles will look for grappling as his skill set would suggest in this fight and instead will stand and bang with one of the greatest boxers in UFC history. Oliveira may be on the decline, but he is still one of the best in the world even at 37 and in his 37th UFC fight. If he gets in a boxing match with Max, though, I see him crumbling sometime in the 3rd round.

Prediction: Holloway by TKO

Matt Hylen

There is not a better matchup that I can think of for the BMF belt than a fight between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. Both are legends of the sport and stylistically present one of the more interesting fights you can make at lightweight.

For Oliveira, he is the best submission artist in UFC history in my opinion. Once he takes you down, he is going to finish you nine times out of ten, simple as that. He also has good boxing ability with heavy hands, but his biggest flaw has been his chin. If Charles gets clipped, it's over for him.

On the other hand, Max Holloway is arguably the best boxer to ever fight in the UFC. His fearlessness to stand-and-bang is second to none, making him one of the most entertaining fighters of all time. What I am interested to see, though, is how he fares against a grapple-first fighter. Believe it or not, Max has never faced a grapple-first fighter before, which is crazy to think about considering how long he's been in the sport.

I think Holloway will struggle early on in this fight. Oliveira is smart; he understands his disadvantage on the feet. I expect Charles to take this to the ground ASAP and maul Holloway in that way. That being said, I do not trust Charles' chin against a KO artist in Holloway.

Prediction: Holloway by TKO/KO

7 Caio Borralho vs

8 Reinier De Ridder

(Borralho -270)

Zak Drapeau

If you're a betting man, THE best bet to make is for this fight to go the distance (-162). Borralho and De Ridder are both coming into this one after a loss, with a lot to prove if they want to make another run for the 185-title.

I believe Borralho has more potential in the future, but right now RDR is the more complete fighter. Borralho's takedown defense is good, but De Ridder's control of the Octagon should be good enough to earn him a close point victory, as long as he doesn't seemingly gas out again like he did against Brendan Allen.

Prediction: De Ridder by Decision

Matt Hylen

I like this fight a lot for both sides. Both Borralho and De Ridder are coming off losses but are still looking to remain in title contention. A win for either side definitely achieves that goal.

For Borralho, he is a jack of all trades, master of none kind of fighter. He is good everywhere the fight goes, but does not excel in any one area. This either makes him unpredictable for opponents or a punching bag for opponents who excel at a certain style.

As for De Ridder, he is coming off one of the more embarrassing losses we have seen a top contender have in a long time. While he did blame it on his health issues, I still do not trust the gas tank of De Ridder in the slightest anymore. He does have stabbing knees to the body as well as an elite clinch game that can lead into takedowns/submissions, but the gas tank is a huge issue that I need to see improved.

I think Borralho took his loss a lot harder than most and will come back much improved. De Ridder should be improved as well, but I still question his heart and ability to manage fights.

Prediction: Borralho by Decision

13 Rob Font vs

Raul Rosas Jr.

(Rosas Jr -230)

Zak Drapeau

At only 21 years old, Rosas Jr. already has some of the best grappling in the Bantamweight division, and that will be Rob Font's downfall this weekend. Font is a tested veteran and a heck of a scrappy boxer, but I don't think he'll be able to keep Rosas off of him.

The fight would probably go the distance if both men's track records as of late had a say, but I'm gonna get a bit dicey. Rosas's grappling is so good that I'm gonna predict a rear-naked choke finish that will put the 21-year-old in the rankings for the first time.

Prediction: Rosas Jr. by Submission

Matt Hylen

This is an underrated fight between two evenly matched fighters. Font is a great volume boxer but lacks defensive ability, while Rosas Jr. presents the opposite style. He is a great takedown artist but lacks ability in his offensive striking.

Due to Rosas Jr.'s name value and hype around him, I do not think Font is getting the credit he deserves. He is a proven veteran who's shown his gatekeeping abilities. I think Rosas Jr. will have a much harder time than people think against a guy like Font.

Prediction: Font by Decision

Drew Dober vs

Michael Johnson

(Johnson -105)

Zak Drapeau

Drew Dober has had his fights end by TKO in 8 of his last 9 fights, whether by win or loss, and I don't think this one bucks the trend. On the opposite side, we have a second resurgence of Michael Johnson, who has had some really clean boxing lately.

In their war, I think we see a knockdown from both men, but in the end, it will be Johnson. With a potential ranked eliminator in his future, Johnson should come out of the gate and have a great attack. I like him by decision mostly, but I believe Dober will get too aggressive, and MJ will catch him to finish it.

Prediction: Johnson by TKO

Matt Hylen

This is going to be a barnburner to say the least. With two heavy hitters like Johnson and Dober, this has fight of the night written all over it.

Drew Dober is the kind of fighter that will get into wars with anyone. His chin is top-tier, with hands that can put you out at any point. His biggest flaw is his one-dimensional kind of fighting, but that shouldn't be too much of an issue in this one.

Johnson is a very similar fighter. As one of the UFC's best veterans, he is known for losing to talent beneath him but beating good fighters. This creates a weird position for Johnson, who is trying to revive his career. He has great pace, but his chin can be dodgy at times, which concerns me.

I do not see this fight going near the 3-round limit. This fight will likely end with someone going to sleep; it is just a matter of who lands first.

Prediction: Johnson by TKO/KO

13 Gregory Rodrigues vs

15 Brunno Ferreira

(Rodrigues -190)

Zak Drapeau

This is a fun fight between two guys you know will stand and bang. Whether the fight comes to a finish before the final bell is up for debate, but it should be fun to get there.

Both men have won 5 of their last 6 and have fought their way into the Top-15, only for the loser to inevitably fall out. Rodrigues has a considerable size advantage, and I would give Ferreira the slight grappling edge. Robocop is the favorite here, but this really should be a pick 'em. I'm going to go with Rodrigues just on a gut feeling because, in truth, I don't have much more to go on besides it.

Prediction: Rodrigues by TKO

Matt Hylen

This could be another huge barnburner kind of fight that won't make the final bell. With these fighters having fought once before, the familiar blood is already there as well.

Gregory Rodrigues is a much improved fighter since the last time he faced Ferreira. He possesses a kind of power that not many others in the entire sport possess. He is constantly applying pressure to opponents, throwing heavy punches 100% of the time. His ground game is also very solid, making him even more dangerous.

As for Bruno Ferreira, he also has very powerful hands and is explosive with every movement. He has improved his grappling over the years as well, but has yet to showcase that ability against anyone of note.

The story of this fight will be Ferreira's gas tank. Bruno has been prone to emptying the tank too early and getting gassed out, which will not fly against a guy like Rodrigues. This fight will go a lot differently than the last in my eyes.

Prediction: Rodrigues by TKO/KO

Cody Garbrandt vs

Long Xiao

(Xiao -160)

Zak Drapeau

You've got to give it to Cody; he keeps coming back for more. Long ago, the man was one of the most exciting in his division and the first to beat the great Dominick Cruz for the 135-title. But since 2017, he is 3-7 and now looks to get back on track against Long Xiao.

Xiao is 1-2 in the UFC but much younger and lankier than Cody. Able to take a punch, it's very unlikely Xiao gets knocked out, but he should have his hands full in a boxing match with the former champion. This one could really go either way, but I think Cody eventually separates himself in the 3rd round for maybe a split decision.

Prediction: Garbrandt by Decision

Matt Hylen

It is a little sad to see a star like Cody Garbrandt fall from grace so far to the point that he is where he is. Yet, here we are.

Garbrandt's prime only lasted a very short time, but he still has that counterpunch ability that can catch anyone off guard. He is an elite defender, but we haven't seen the version of Garbrandt people loved in a while. His regression has taken away a lot of his power and especially his chin, which is always a concern for me.

As for Long Xiao, he is not a very high-level fighter but knows how to put on a show. He is very scrappy but is prone to swinging aimlessly at times, costing him energy. He is not afraid to get into ugly fights and initiate wars, which could be interesting against a guy like Garbrandt.

I just do not see this being the best of fights. Both these guys are not high-level and will likely be looking for that one-punch KO the entire time.

Prediction: Xiao by Decision

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-Z.D. (@DrapeauZak)

-Matt Hylen (@matthylen_)