UFC 333 Predictions
by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen
Sportz Nation - 10/23/2026
In our Fight Night Allen vs Duncan Predictions, which you can find here,
Zak went 3-3 in picks with 1 methods for 4 points.
Matt went 2-4 in picks with 0 methos for 3 points.
Points To Date:
Zak: 202 (134-80)
Matt: 177 (118-90)
*All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook on 10/16
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Alexander Volkanovski vs
Movsar Evloev
Featherweight Championship
(Volkanovski -115)
Zak Drapeau -
We are witnessing one of two things in this fight, the final chapter in a storied and Hall of Fame career for Volkanovski and the precipice of Evloev's era at Featherweight, or yet another example of how Volkanovski is one of the greatest ever. While he is the best challenger in the division and probably has been for a while, I really don't love the Volk matchup for Evloev.
Volk has seen it all including two fights with Islam Makhachev who is a more complete version of Evloev anyway. This fight will see Evloev take the fight to the ground and pressure Volkanovski for most of the fight but I don't see it getting out of hand for the much more experienced champion.
Prediction: Volkanovski by Decision
Matt Hylen -
The fight we’ve all been waiting for in the Featherweight division. Say what you want about Movsar Evloev and him being a decision merchant, but he is the rightful challenger to one of the greatest to ever do it in Alexander Volkanovski.
This will be a big tell as to how good Volkanovski’s takedown defense still is. His elite defensive style is a big part of his legacy, so I’m interested to see how he fares against the best grappler he’s faced since Islam Makhachev. With that said, Evloev is going to have to finish Volk if he wants any chance of winning this fight, but that’s the biggest weakness in his game.
Prediction: Volkanovski by Decision
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Petr Yan vs
Merab Dvalishvili
Bantamweight Championship
(Yan -175)
Zak Drapeau -
I saw a stat the other day that in trilogy fights, the winner of the 2nd fight is 6-2 in UFC history. This fight doesn't scream another easy win for the champ but I have to admit it makes sense that the winner of the 2nd fight has someone kind of strategic edge as well as an obvious mental edge.
Yan was successful in stopping 27 of Merab's 29 takedowns as well as level changing with his striking to land 5 of his own. Merab's normal style of pressure grappling and outpacing his opponent just didn't work last time and I don't think it will in the 3rd. not to mention the OBVIOUS striking advantage for the Champion, I think this fight is very similar to the last one but is closer to being a 48-47 Unanimous this time.
Prediction: Yan by Decision
Matt Hylen -
I think this has potential to be one of the best fights of the year. I truly believe Merab Dvalishvili will have learned from what went wrong last time out, but I also expect Petr Yan to have a pretty good blueprint on how to expose the weaknesses in Merab’s game.
Based on the last time they met, Merab’s biggest problem was that he allowed himself to get picked apart on the feet because his takedowns were too predictable. Yan knew pretty much every time when Merab was going to shoot, considering it was attempted 29 times. Merab needs to be more calculated against a guy like Yan. He doesn’t necessarily have to give up on takedowns if they aren’t working, but go for quality rather than quantity.
I think Merab can get the job done on Saturday. He is way too good to have another performance like he did against Yan last time out. So, though I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Yan is just Dvalishvili’s kryptonite, I think Merab will be back better than ever and find a way to win.
Prediction: Dvalishvili by Decision
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Lone'er Kavanaugh vs
Ramazan Temirov
(Kavanaugh -115)
Zak Drapeau -
So here's probably my hot take of the article, never really been a big Kavanaugh fan. I think he was in the right place at the right time when he beat an aging Brandon Moreno and was absolutely exposed in July by Brandon Royval. This time around he has the luxury of facing another striker which definitely plays more into his style but unfortunately, Temirov is also a nightmare.
Rarely if ever have I said in one of these that a Flyweight fight is almost guaranteed to end in a knockout but I think this is the one. For Temirov, the power is unreal and for Kavanaugh, a big size advantage and lightning-fast hands give him a "anytime-anywhere" kind of vibe. Still, I think Temirov catches him perfectly sometime around the 2nd.
Prediction: Temirov by TKO
Matt Hylen -
This is going to be an extremely fun striking matchup between a speedster in Lone’er Kavanaugh and a tank in Ramazan Temirov. Though Temirov has elite power that can put you out in one punch, that’s about all he has. Kavanaugh has much more technique on the feet that can pick a guy like Temirov apart. It almost reminds me of the Mike Malott vs Joaquin Buckley fight; Buckley had a serious power advantage but Malott had the speed, timing, and IQ to exploit the weaknesses of Buckley. I think the same happens in this fight, with Kavanaugh taking advantage of Temirov’s power by allowing him to think he can explode into strikes.
Prediction: Kavanaugh by TKO/KO
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2Alexander Volkov vs
7Rizvan Kuniev
(Volkov -130)
Zak Drapeau -
A lot of people will give the UFC a lot of flak for not giving Volkov a title shot by now and I certainly understand it, but I actually believe that will be his downfall for this one. Volkov's has won 6 of his last 7 but has no memorable wins or promotion about him so no wonder a guy like Hokit gets the shot before him. If Volkov wants a title shot, he'll have to do something memorable especially against a guy like Kuniev who sits at #7 in the division.
If Volkov strays from his normal distance-based striking to decision style, I think we could see him slip up and succomb to Kuniev's power. Unfortunately for Volkov, he could be playing EXACTLY into the UFC's hands and give way to yet another Heavyweight contender on the way up.
Prediction: Kuniev by TKO
Matt Hylen -
Whatever the UFC has against Alexander Volkov to the point he has to fight down in opponent again is beyond me. This guy has deserved a title shot for a while now, but instead is going up against one of the better up and coming powerhouses of the Heavyweight division in Rizvan Kuniev.
I envision this going the way of Volkov because I don’t trust the gas tank of Kuniev. Kuniev tends to want to clinch the second he gets gassed, but that won’t work against a guy like Volkov. Not only does he have a major height advantage, but he thrives in the clinch and does his best work there. I think Volkov has far too much experience for Kuniev to get going without gassing out.
Prediction: Volkov by Decision
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11Aaron Pico vs
Losene Keita
(Keita -115)
Zak Drapeau -
This fight was originally supposed to be Arnold Allen versus Aaron Pico but Losene Keita stepped in because of injury and actually presents a more interesting challenge. keita is a much different fighter than Allen and will use wrestling and power punches to try and get Pico out of there early. Whereas Pico would've used his striking to try and win by decision, I think this fight turns into something much more scrappier. I was a big fan of Keita when he first got into the UFC and still am, but Pico is definitely more polished and shouldn't fall victim to any of Keita's traps even if he gets taken down once or twice.
Prediction: Pico by Decision
Matt Hylen -
This fight excites me because it should be a one sided fight, but one aspect of it might change the whole narrative. Based on what we’ve seen, Aaron Pico should outclass Losene Keita everywhere the fight goes. He’s a phenomenal grappler with fast but heavy hands that can do some real damage to opponents. Keita also doesn’t have the experience or resume that Pico has, which on short notice should be concerning.
However, the one think Keita has is power against an opponent with a glass chin. Pico can sometimes get a little overzealous and bring down his defenses. So, with his chin completely gone at this point in his career, Keita absolutely had a chance to knock out Pico.
This is so tough to decide because I really like Aaron Pico’s game, but something is telling me Keita is going to knock him out. I’m sure I’m going to look back on this when Pico outclasses Keita like I said he could, but I can’t shake the idea that Keita’s power advantage compared to the horrific chin of Pico could win him this fight.
Prediction: Keita by TKO/KO
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7Azamat Murzakanov vs
8Dominick Reyes
(Murzakanov -230)
Zak Drapeau -
Brother this fight is just not doing it for me. I know I shoukd be excited by two hard-hitting Light Heavyweights going at it especially when one has a former championship-level pedigree but honestly nah.
I don't even think this one ends before the cards with Reyes showing a propensity to methodically strike until a decision. Nonetheless he has a HUGE size advanateg and his only loss in the last 32 years has been to the current champ so I like him here, then who knows he might get a Top-5 fight next...
Prediction: Reyes by Decision
Matt Hylen -
Similar to the Pico and Keita fight, Dominick Reyes should dominate this fight on paper. Yet, Murzakanov’s power compared to Reyes’ glass chin makes things so much more interesting. I think Murzakanov could definitely hit Reyes with a shot that puts him out, but Reyes has also fought and beaten plenty of guys with a style similar to Murzakanov.
Prediction: Reyes by Decision
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Other Predictions
Krylov vs Yakhyaev(-450)
Zak - Yakhyaev by TKO
Matt - Yakhyaev by TKO/Ko
(-130)Magomedov vs Rowston
Zak - Rowston by TKO
Matt - Magomedov by Decision
(-120)Dawson vs Aliev
Zak - Dawson by Decision
Matt - Dawson by Decision
Thicknesse vs Chopurov(-500)
Zak - Chopurov by Sub
Matt - Chopurov by TKO/KO
(-170)Vagaev vs Malkoun
Zak - Vagaev by Decision
Matt - Malkoun by Decision
Oki vs Santos(-150)
Zak - Santos by TKO
Matt - Santos by TKO/KO
(-170)Steele vs Gugnon
Zak - Steele by TKO
Matt - Steele by Decision
(-380)Lucindo vs Caliari
Zak - Lucindo by Decision
Matt - Lucindo by TKO/KO
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