UFC Matchmaking: Flyweight Division 10/15

Fans Only Sportz Network
13 hours ago
10 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen 10/15/2025 Sportz Nation

Current Rankings

C Alexandre Pantoja

1 Joshua Van

2 Brandon Moreno

3 Brandon Royval

4 Amir Albazi

5 Tatsuro Taira

6 Kai Kara-France

7 Manel Kape

8 Alex Perez

9 Asu Almabayev

10 Tim Elliot

11 Steve Erceg

12 Tagir Ulanbekov

13 Charles Johnson

14 Bruno Silva

15 Rafael Estevam

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Key

Booked Fight

Rumored Fight

Zak and Matt's Hypothetical Fight

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C Alexandre Pantoja

1 Joshua Van

(World Flyweight Title)

Zak

The logical next step for Alex Pantoja, who has run through almost everyone in the division, is Joshua Van, which will be a good matchup. Pantoja has faced some challenges but no real threats in his 4-year winning streak within the division, and I don't expect Van to be much different, even though I see it going the distance. At his best, Pantoja could definitely submit him in the 3rd, but Van's groundwork is good enough that I don't believe it will happen.

Pantoja by Unanimous Decision

Matt

This was the only title fight to make for this division. Pantoja has been on an absolute tear, becoming one of the greatest, if not the greatest, flyweights of all time. He is criminally underrated in my eyes and should be top-4 P4P in the world. However, I do not think he has fought a striker like Joshua Van. Van may be young, but his fight IQ is wise beyond his years, with hands that can change a fight with one punch. He is not afraid to stand and bang or get hit if it means hitting the opponent harder. With that said, though I am a huge fan of Van, I see Pantoja taking this fight to the ground as early and as often as possible. Van has the advantage on the feet, but Pantoja's ability to take you down and keep you there is unparalleled.

I hate saying this, but I am going to go Pantoja by decision. Still rooting for my guy Van though!

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3 Brandon Royval

7 Manel Kape

Zak

I see this fight staying on the feet and being an all-out war until Kape rocks Royval and he goes for a shoot somewhere in the 2nd round. I truly believe Kape has some of the best hands in the division and could extend his 2-fight TKO streak to 3 in this one.

Kape by TKO

Matt

This fight is going to be an absolute barnburner. Both Royval and Kape are strike-first fighters with an elite ability to find their spots. This could be a title eliminator in my eyes, that is how exciting it could be. With that said, I think Kape will find it difficult to find the range against Royval, who has a significant reach advantage.

I'm going with Royval by decision here.

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2 Brandon Moreno

5 Tatsuro Taira

Zak

This is the latest fight to be announced in this division, and while Brandon Moreno is still a formidable fighter with a lot of miles left in his career, I see Tatsuro Taira as the next challenger for the 125-title, and that starts with an impressive performance in this one. Taira will take Moreno down after some back-and-forth battle and likely win on points after outworking the former champion to set up a title eliminator between him and Kape at the beginning of 2026.

Taira by Split Decision

Matt

I love this fight for both sides. Though he is technically fighting down in opponent, this is a great fight for Brandon Moreno to show the world he still has some gas left in the tank. As for Tatsuro Taira, coming off a submission win, the 25-year-old prospect has an elite ability to stay on the feet or submit you on the ground. Whoever wins this could get a title eliminator or maybe even a title shot next.

I have Taira by TKO/KO.

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4 Amir Albazi

10 Tim Elliot

Zak

In the first hypothetical in this very active division, we originally had Albazi matched up with Taira before his fight was announced, so a "tune-up" with Tim Elliott was arranged. Elliott has tremendous striking and maybe the most experience of anyone in this division, but Albazi is a different beast. His power could end the fight at any time, and I'll take him to win by TKO sometime in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Albazi by TKO

Matt

Another interesting fight that could end with fireworks. Tim Elliott is unexpectedly back on the rise up the mountain after a win against Kai Asakura, so a fight upwards for him as one last push makes sense. As for Albazi, who just lost to Brandon Moreno last time out, this is a good rebound fight to show he still deserves to be in the top 5. Both fighters can finish you in a variety of ways, making this matchup even more of a chess match.

I would have Albazi by Submission here.

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8 Alex Perez

9 Asu Almabayev

[Winner Fights

6 Kai Kara-France]

Zak

Alex Perez does not have a win against any currently ranked fighter. An impressive wrestler, Perez just doesn't have enough experience to have earned his #8 ranking, and Asu Almabayev is such an impressive, all-around fighter that he should have Perez's number.

Almabayev by Unanimous Decision

Almabayev vs. Kara-France is a very interesting fight. I'd look for Almabayev to try and use his wrestling to win this one because Kai could knock him out with one swing. Holding the striking, length, and experience advantages, Kara-France should win this one and return to his Top-5 matchups.

Kara-France by Unanimous Decision

Matt

Similar to what Zak said, having Alex Perez ranked above guys like Tim Elliot, Steeve Erceg, and Asu Almabayev is quite interesting to me. He has lost 4 of his last 5 fights dating back to 2020, so facing a guy like Almabayev might be a little too generous in my opinion. With that said, Almabayev is fantastic and should make light work of an aging Perez

I have Almabayev by Submission

This means, in our hypothetical world, Asu Almabayev would take on the dangerous Kai Kara-France next. In this scenario, I think both Kara-France and Almabayev are one fight away from a title-eliminator with the need to show their relevance in this division. Not that they are irrelevant, both are amazing fighters to watch, but in the way of competing for the title. Kara-France just got dominated by Pantoja in his title shot, while Almabayev is still waiting for his signature fight to break onto the scene.

I would have Almabayev by decision here.

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11 Steve Erceg

13 Charles Johnson

Zak

Steve Erceg was thrown into the title fight scene after only a few fights in the UFC, and it showed. Losing three in a row before bouncing back against Ode Osbourne, Erceg needs to climb back up the rankings, and a fight against Charles Johnson is a great test to see if he is ready for the top fights again. I think Erceg wins this one and earns some great experience in a deep and competitive fight with a top guy.

Erceg by Split Decision

Matt

Steve Erceg is dangerously close to becoming a gatekeeper for this division. Having lost every big fight he has taken, he needs to show that he can climb back up. Charles Johnson is a perfect start for him. Johnson has won 4 of his last 5 (including a win over Joshua Van, who is fighting for the title next) and is a stylistic nightmare for a striker like Erceg.

I would have Johnson by Decision here

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12 Tagir Ulanbekov

Kyoji Horiguchi

Zak

Ulanbekov is another guy who has been around the Top-10 for a long time and, with a win here, could attempt to finally break that barrier. On the other hand, Kyoji Horiguchi is making his return to the Octagon after 9 years away. Horiguchi has had a wealth of experience in Rizin and Bellator, and I believe he will use his momentum to make a bang in his return.

Horiguchi by Submission

Matt

Coming onto the scene as a champion in two different promotions, Kyoji Horiguchi can make major waves in this division. I also think there is no better way for Horiguchi to get his feet wet in the UFC (for his 2nd stint) than against a fighter like Tagir Ulanbekov. Ulanbekov is one-dimensional, but is a monster on the ground. With that said, though he is listed as a striker, Horiguchi can grapple with the best. I honestly think this fight will end quickly, creating a new and dangerous UFC contender in the Flyweight division.

I have Horiguchi by TKO/KO.

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14 Bruno Silva

Hyun-Sung Park

[Winner Fights

Andre Lima]

Zak

Bruno Silva is one of the most exciting fighters at 125 and will live and die by his sword. Fighting Hyun-Sung Park after being knocked out in 2 fights in a row doesn't bode well for him. The bigger Korean should be able to land some clean shots in exchanges and put down Silva to earn a number by his name.

Park by TKO

Park would then take on another up-and-comer, Andre Lima. The undefeated Brazilian has as impressive a groundwork as he does boxing and should overwhelm Park on his way to a ranking and likely more wins after that.

Lima by Unanimous Decision

Matt

With both fighters coming off losses to superior opponents, I like this matchup as a rebound for both Silva and Park. It is a sort of "ranked eliminator" fight, with the winner back on the climb and the loser back to the drawing board. Park and Silva are both very talented, but were victims of premature matchmaking. With that said, this fight should be pretty one-sided.

I have Park by Submission.

This means Park would get another "prove it" fight against a huge prospect in Andre Lima. Lima is an undefeated fighter with elite kickboxing and submission ability. This combination of stylistic variation was what caused major issues for Park when he faced Tatsuro Taira.

I would have Lima by Decision here.

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15 Rafael Estevam

Allan Nascimento

[Winner Fights

Ramazan Temirov]

Zak

This may be a disservice, but I won't spend much time on this booked fight. I believe Nascimento will beat up Estevam on his way to a 3-round decision.

Nascimento by Unanimous Decision

The reason I didn't spend much time is that the next fight is the big one. Ramazan Temirov will compete for the UFC Flyweight title in a few years, and this will be his stepping stone. Temirov is a brutal striker riding a wave of momentum. He may have short arms that could cause problems down the road, but hear me now, you are looking at a future champion.

Temirov by TKO

Matt

Both of these fighters are extremely dangerous, with one-punch power that can turn the lights off. Estevam is undefeated, looking to make the climb up the ranks, while Nascimento has won 4 of his last 5 and is looking to continue his climb into the rankings. It may not be the most entertaining fight in the world, but one that'll decide a lot for the bottom of the rankings. With that said, I am going to have to disagree with my partner here. Estevam is not someone to be overlooked. Though Nascimento is dangerous, Estevam is the more experienced fighter, which I think works to his benefit here.

I have Estevam by Decision.

Ramazan Temirov is arguably the most deserving of a ranked fight next. He is an absolute beast who can finish you at any point he wants. He's won his first two fights in the UFC in dominant fashion, which is likely to continue here. Estevam is talented, but not many people are going to beat Temirov right now.

I would have Temirov by TKO/KO here.

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Jafel Filho

Kai Asakura

Zak

After Filho's impressive kimura win over Clayton Carpenter, this fight could easily be for a #15 ranking or at least give the winner a ranked fight next. Asakura will likely be the betting favorite, but could fall victim to Filho's wrestling and grappling. After coming into the UFC and immediately failing to take advantage of his fast track, I have Asakura falling even further after this one.

Filho by Submission

Matt

Kai Asakura is yet another fighter who was among the best in the world outside the UFC, but was given way too much way too early. This matchmaking blunder caused Asakura to go from fighting for the UFC title to becoming stuck outside the rankings. He needs a rebound fight to gain his mojo back, so Jafel Filho makes sense for me. Filho just beat Clayton Carpenter in dominant fashion, now likely being one win away from a ranked opponent. He is in a similar boat to Asakura, making this fight extremely interesting with high stakes.

I would have Asakura by TKO/KO here.

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Azat Maksum

Mitch Raposo

Zak

Both of these fighters are coming off ranked losses and are in desperate need of a win. Maksum is already long for the division, and facing a guy with a 6" shorter reach could be just what he needs. Both fighters' strong grappling should be negated, and I believe it will be a close encounter won by the striking of Maksum.

Maksum by Split Decision

Matt

Azat Maksum and Mitch Raposo are both on a two-fight losing streak, looking to get back on track and avoid irrelevancy. Both fighters have shown flashes of elite ability, but have made too many mistakes in their recent fights that opponents have taken advantage of. This fight could end early with both being good strikers, but I am not holding my breath for any sort of crazy finish in this one.

I have Maksum by Decision here

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