UFC Matchmaking: Light Heavyweight Division 10/8

Fans Only Sportz Network
Oct 8
12 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen 10/8/2025 Sportz Nation

Credit to Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via bleacherreport.com

Current Rankings

C Alex Pereira

1 Jiri Prochazka

2 Magomed Ankalaev

3 Carlos Ulberg

4 Jan Blachowicz

5 Khalil Rountree Jr

6 Jamahal Hill

7 Aleksandar Rakic

8 Dominick Reyes

9 Volkan Oezdemir

10 Azamat Murzakanov

11 Bogdan Guskov

12 Johnny Walker

13 Nikita Krylov

14 Alonzo Menifield

15 Mingyang Zhang

___________________________________

Zak and Matt's Matchmaking

Red Font - Confirmed Fight

Yellow Font - Rumored Fight

White Font - Hypothetical Fight

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

CAlex Pereira

Jon Jones

(Heavyweight)

Matt

Is this a long shot to happen? Sure, but Poatan called his shot.

Of course, this all depends on whether Jones would be willing to take a non-title fight and if Dana White allows him to fight again. With that said, I really believe we have not seen the last of Jon Jones. My vision is that Jones will need to show he is reliable again if he wants to fight Aspinall on the White House card (given that Aspinall beats Gane at UFC 321). In order to do that, I believe Jones needs one fight beforehand, with no issues, to prove to White that what happened over the last year and a half will not happen again. Who better than against a guy who just reclaimed his title in dominant fashion and is looking for a superfight at heavyweight?

So not only is this a prove-it fight for Jones, it is what Pereira is asking for. Pereira is not getting any younger, so I believe him when he says he will only take a heavyweight superfight next. He called out Jones for a reason, causing me to believe that Jones will use this to get back into the UFC.

In terms of how the fight would go, it would be a huge chess match. I think it would all depend on how well Pereira can defend Jones' takedowns because I think Poatan has the advantage against whoever he fights on the feet. Of course, Jon Jones is the GOAT, but if this fight were to happen (let's say early 2026) that layoff at the age he is will have lasted a very long time.

I would have Pereira by TKO/KO here, but in a very close fight.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

CAlex Pereira

CTom Aspinall

(Heavyweight Championship)

Zak

When matchmaking for Alex Pereira, I have to believe that he will be fighting at Heavyweight next. Even though I am a huge Jon Jones fan and that matchup would be awesome, I believe the only option is Aspinall. To me, the biggest hang-up is that I don't believe Jones fights in a non-title bout, and a prospective fight with Pereira would have to be. That being said, a Pereira-Aspinall Heavyweight Championship fight would be the next best thing between two champions who are looking for first-round knockouts. In Pereira's first matchup at 265, he will be taking heavier shots than he ever has before, and if Adesanya turned his lights out, I have to believe Aspinall will too.

Tom Aspinall by TKO

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

1Jiri Prochazka

3Carlos Ulberg

(Vacant LHW Championship)

[Winner Fights 2Magomed Ankalaev

Zak

This fight happens because Pereira will vacate his belt to move up, and I believe Ankalaev will need almost a year to recover from his injuries. That being said, Ulberg vs. Prochazka is a sick matchup between two strikers. Prochazka has the better experience and an awkward style Ulberg has never seen, but the Aussie has been topping off everyone in his path, and I believe he actually outstrikes Prochazka for 5 rounds and starts a new era at 205.

Carlos Ulberg by Unanimous Decision

When Ankalaev returns from injuries and after his destruction at the hands of Poatan, he will be in no mood when facing the new champion. Carlos Ulberg has the technical striking to match with Ankalaev, but I believe a fully healthy Russian will not only handle his own standing but take him apart on the ground. Ulberg had a great run, but I actually think this fight is not close.

Magomed Ankalaev by Unanimous Decision

Matt

If Alex Pereira moves up to heavyweight, which is looking extremely likely, this is the only fight to make for the next LHW title. Ulberg has done everything he has needed to do, with his only loss coming in his UFC debut in 2021. As for Jiri, though he has had multiple title shots over the past couple of years, he just beat the next best contender in Khalil Rountree Jr by a devastating KO. Jiri's boogeyman will have moved up to heavyweight in this scenario, giving him a completely different outlook heading into this title fight. This is such a close one, but I think Ulberg is just too powerful and too fast, which is what Prochazka has struggled with. I think Ulberg avoids the chaos that Jiri can bring to the octagon and get it done.

I would have Ulberg by TKO/KO here.

That means Ulberg would face off against Ankalaev in his first title defense. This is a big fight for the trajectory of the LHW division. With Pereira gone, someone needs to take his place as "the guy to watch," which can be determined in this fight. Though Ankalaev may not exactly be a fan favorite, his talent and ability to finish his opponents are entertaining, to say the least. With that said, I think it's Ulberg's time. The way he can handle anyone he faces with complete ease and find that power shot is so rare at this weight. We saw that Ankalaev is vulnerable when the pressure is being put on him, which is something Ulberg will exploit.

I would have Ulberg by TKO/KO here.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

7Aleksandar Rakić

10Azamat Murzakanov

[Winner Fights Khalil Rountree Jr.]

Zak

Rakić vs. Murzakanov is a banger of a fight on October 25th and the undefeated Soviet's biggest test BY FAR of his career. Rakić's only 3 defeats are by 3 of the past 4 champions of the division, and even though he may have a ceiling as to how high he can climb the rankings, I think his experience and striking will give Murzakanov his first loss.

Aleksandar Rakic by Split Decision

That brings Rakic up against Khalil Rountree Jr., who will be looking to bounce back after the brutal end to his fight last weekend with Prochazka. Two huge men with good boxing squaring off in what should be a 15-minute war. In my opinion, Rakic's counter-striking and methodical technique will be less effective against a powerful boxer like Rountree Jr., and I can even see the former title challenger ending it towards the very end of the fight.

Khalil Rountree Jr. by TKO

Matt

Rakić vs. Murzakanov is a perfect matchmaking decision by the UFC. With Murzakanov carrying that 0 in the loss column, facing a guy like Rakić, who is dangerous in his own right, will tell a lot. Rakić is trying to prevent becoming a gatekeeper in the LHW division, while Murzakanov is making a hard push for a title shot soon. Both have extremely heavy hands that can end a fight quickly. It is just a matter of who lands the big shot first.

I would have Murzakanov by TKO/KO here

That means Murzakanov would match up against Khalil Rountree Jr. in this hypothetical world. What a crazy fight this could be. Two fighters who are willing to stand and bang with whoever is in their way, but are also technical when they need to be. I think because of that willingness to wait for a big shot, this fight could go the distance. In terms of who I would take, I think even with the KO loss, Rountree Jr.'s experience in big moments and ability to tear down an opponent piece by piece will overwhelm Murzakanov and eventually crumble him.

I would have Roundtree Jr. by decision here

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

8Dominick Reyes

12Johnny Walker

Zak

Both of these fighters seem like they are 1 or 2 fights away from leaving the rankings, and both have definitely fallen short of the potential we once thought they had. Walker's size and kickboxing are so hard to defend against, but Reyes' toughness and striking would be perfect to stay in the pocket and send Johnny Walker back down the ladder.

Dominick Reyes by TKO

Matt

This fight makes too much sense for both fighters in my eyes. You could almost view this fight as a "gatekeeper eliminator," where the winner gets another shot at rising up the ranks while the other becomes a gatekeeper for the division. Reyes and Walker have both been in big moments but have also tended to falter when the lights are brightest. I think this fight goes the distance, with both Reyes and Walker having a shot to finish it before then during the fight.

I would have Reyes by decision here.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

6 Jamahal Hill

11 Bogdan Guskov

Zak

Up-and-comer Bogdan Guskov has only made it past the 2nd round in 1 of his 21 professional fights and is currently on a 4-fight finishing streak in the UFC. Jamahal Hill is definitely not afraid of throwing hands, but I genuinely think Hill's prime is either long gone or was extremely exaggerated. Hill is one of those guys that never really faced the cream of the crop until he started losing, and I don't think that would change at all in this fight.

Bogdan Guskov by TKO

Matt

Jamahal Hill needs a rebound fight, so fighting an up-and-comer like Bogdan Guskov is a great opportunity for him. With Guskov on a 4-fight win streak since his loss in his UFC debut, he will also be looking to fight a guy ranked above him to progress his agenda. Since the injury, Hill seems to have forgotten who he is as a fighter, so until we see him find that again, it is going to be difficult to bet on him, especially against a guy like Guskov, who looks fantastic right now.

I would have Guskov by decision here.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

9 Volkan Oezdemir

14 Alonzo Menifield

[Winner Fights 4 Jan Blachowicz]

Zak

This is a hot take, but I honestly don't believe either of these guys will be in the rankings come, say, a year and a half from now. Oezdemir is miles past his prime and is only still here because of a debuting Guskov catching the wrong punch, and Alonzo Menifield has hovered around that 14-20 ranking for almost 4 years. This fight should be fun and have a lot of hard-cracking strikes, but Oezdemir's technique and kickboxing are a bit superior and should win a close call.

Volkan Oezdemir by Split Decision

Next up would be Blachowicz vs. Oezdemir, and even though I'd say Blachowicz is on his way out too at 42 years old, he still has plenty in the tank to mess up Oezdemir in what should be either his second-to-last or maybe the Pole's last fight of his career.

Jan Blachowicz by Unanimous Decision

Matt

Similar to the Rakic/Murzakanov fight, this could also be a "gatekeeper eliminator" type of fight. Both Oezdemir and Menifield have plateaued as of late and are one fight away from losing their chance at progressing upwards anytime soon. However, both of these fighters have great KO power, but Oezdemir's ground game is the difference for me. Menifield is horrible when taken down, causing me to believe that will be Oezdemir's game plan if he can't get it going on the feet. Yes, I am aware Oezdemir is not known for his ground ability, but if he can land a good shot against a reckless Menifield, I don't see why he would not go for a takedown or two in this fight.

I have Oezdemir by decision here.

This sets up our hypothetical matchup between Oezdemir and Jan Blachowicz. In my opinion, Blachowicz being ranked at 4 is a little high for me. He's lost three of his last five, including a loss and a draw in championship fights. We have not seen the Jan Blachowicz that took over this division since he lost the belt in 2021. Unfortunately, as much as I hate to say it, if this fight were to happen, I think Jan will fall out of the top 5 once he goes up against Oezdemir.

I would have Oezdemir by TKO/KO here

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

13Nikita Krylov

Modestas Bukauskas

Zak

A great standing showdown between two warriors: Bukauskas on the rise and Krylov seemingly on his way out but clinging to his Top-15 spot. With both fighters on opposite ends of momentum, I would look for Bukauskas to control the early rounds and coast to a victory.

Modestas Bukauskas by Unanimous Decision

Matt

The winner of this fight could absolutely see that 50k bonus by the end of it. Both Krylov and Bukauskas are absolute maulers that can break down an opponent brutally and quickly. However, like Zak said, Bukauskas is climbing the mountain while Krylov is trying to stop his fall from the mountain. I think Bukauskas does the same thing he did to Paul Craig to Nikita Krylov and mauls him until Krylov is knocked out or the fight is stopped by the referee.

I would have Bukauskas by TKO/KO here.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

15Mingyang Zhang

Dustin Jacoby

Zak

Whatever the over/under for this fight is, take the under. Mingyang is a full 10 years younger than his opponent, who is trying to enter the Top-15 rankings for the first time in over 2 years. Mingyang may have gotten railroaded by Johnny Walker a few months ago, but I think he comes back in a big way here and uses his power to get Jacoby out early.

Mingyang Zhang by TKO

Matt

Giving Mingyang Zhang a fight against a seasoned fighter like Dustin Jacoby seems to be the right move for him right now. Jacoby is the most deserving unranked fighter (besides Bukauskas) to get a ranked opponent, so fighting a ranked opponent in Zhang makes sense. With Zhang coming off a loss, it would prove that he still deserves to be ranked and can still climb up the mountain. As for Jacoby, it would put him in the rankings and likely give him a top-10 opponent next.

I would have Zhang by decision here.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Navajo Stirling

Jimmy Crute

Zak

This fight is outside of the rankings, but depending on how the end of 2025 goes, it could give a number to the winner. Navajo Stirling has won all 4 fights he's had in the UFC, and Crute has always been right on the cusp of the Top-15, so this fight makes a lot of sense. While Crute has become a much more wrestling-based fighter in recent years, Stirling uses his length to keep the fight standing more often. His length may actually be too much for the 29-year-old veteran and could earn Stirling his first UFC knockout.

Navajo Stirling by TKO

Matt

I am a huge fan of Navajo Sterling's game. I think he is one fight away from getting a ranked opponent, so who better than to have him match up against a proven fighter in Jimmy Crute? Crute may not be ranked either, but he is also on the precipice of a ranked opponent as well. Sterling would get his biggest test yet against a proven fighter, while Crute would get the opportunity to show he still has some gas left in the tank. With that in mind, I still think that Sterling is too good to handle right now.

I would have Stirling by TKO/KO here.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Oumar Sy

Billy Elekana

Zak

This fight could get out of hand early if Sy pressures Elekana like he normally does. Sy has deadly hands and a great base to control his opponent on the ground. To make matters worse, he will be the best wrestler by far that Elekana has fought in the UFC, and I think he will get drowned in this fight.

Oumar Sy by TKO

Matt

Another fight that could result in the winner demanding a ranked opponent next. Sy and Elekana have rebounded nicely from their unexpected losses but are still a fight or two away from a ranked opponent. I think this matchup provides two fighters in the same boat a chance to show off their ability to adapt to a style different from theirs. Depending on how this fight goes, it could be a huge step in the right direction for Sy or Elekana.

I would have Sy by decision here.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev

Raffael Cerquiera

Zak

The biggest favorite for a UFC fight in the next few weeks, Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev is making his UFC debut after his 30-second DWCS knockout against Raffael Cerquiera. This fight isn't about who's going to win; it's more about how violent Yakhyaev is going to be.

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev by TKO

Matt

Basically, what Zak said, I am not sure why Yakhyaev is not getting a better opponent than Cerqueira to begin his UFC career. Cerqueira is on a 3-fight losing streak as a 35-year-old. I think Yakhyaev, who is polished on the feet as well as the ground, could wipe the floor with Cerqueira and make a statement in this division.

I have Yakhyaev by TKO/KO here.

___________________________________