5 BOLD Predictions for the F1 São Paulo Grand Prix

Matt Hylen
17 hours ago
4 min read

Round 21 of 24 of the 2025 Formula One season is officially underway in São Paulo, Brazil. This 71-lap race will mark the conclusion of an already chaotic sprint-style weekend. Not only that, but the complexity of the Drivers' Championship has already changed before race day has even begun!

To give a quick recap, McLaren's Lando Norris topped both Sprint Qualifying and the Sprint Race, showing he is the man to beat in Brazil. He then followed up his fantastic results with another pole position heading into the main race. Meanwhile, Mercedes' Kimi Antonelli has had a career weekend, finishing 2nd in all three sessions thus far (both qualifying sessions and the Sprint).

The real topic of conversation, though, has to be Max Verstappen. We will get more into him later, but my goodness, is this a worst-case scenario.

So, before we get into the predictions, here is a look at how the grid will start Sunday's race (Updated 11:45am EST on November 9th):

Lando Norris
Kimi Antonelli
Charles Leclerc
Oscar Piastri
Isack Hadjar
Geroge Russell
Liam Lawson
Oliver Bearman
Pierre Gasly
Nico Hülkenberg
Fernando Alonso
Alex Albon
Lewis Hamilton
Lance Stroll
Carlos Sainz
Franco Colapinto
Yuki Tsunoda
Gabriel Bortoleto
Max Verstappen (Pit Lane Start)
Esteban Ocon (Pit Lane Start)

With that, let's get into my predictions!

Alpine will Score Points

When all hope seems to be lost for Alpine, they can always count on Sāo Paulo. For whatever reason, Alpine seems to have this track down to a science, so much so that Pierre Gasly looked as though he was driving a competitive car. So, though Alpine has looked like a disaster for a majority of the season, they might end up scoraping away with a point or two after Sunday's race.

Gabriel Bortoleto will Finish in at Least the Top-12

The adversity could not be higher, but I think Bortoleto can get it done. The Kick Sauber car has shown it can compete within the top-10, which bodes well for a driver starting last in Bortoleto. With the home crowd roaring in support, I have a feeling Gabriel will make waves early in the race and execute a good result for the team.

Red Bull will NOT Score a Point

This may not sound crazy bold, considering Yuki Tsunoda is starting 19th and Max Verstappen is starting 18th, but anything can happen in São Paulo. This track is known for its opportunities to overtake cars ahead, with a proven track record of safety cars and red flags. I do think Max will make up ground, but with the state of the car this weekend, points could be a little too far out of reach. Even for Max Verstappen.

Mercedes will Secure a Double Podium

Mercedes has not secured a double podium since Canada, so it has been a long time coming. Antonelli is finally starting to show why he deserves more patience and a place as a Mercedes driver with a career weekend, while Russell is a soft tire-less session away from getting back in the fold. If both Antonelli and Russell can find a groove during this race, they should have multiple opportunities to shoot for a podium. Based on what we have seen thus far, Kimi has more than enough pace to maintain his spot, but George has some work to do. His car just is not responding to the soft tire, but I doubt he uses it during the Grand Prix.

As for the cars ahead of George, I don't see Isack Hadjar holding George back. Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri will definitely be tough to pass, but Mercedes has looked faster than both Piastri and Leclerc all weekend long. I truly beleive Mercedes have the tools needed this weekend to get both drivers on the podium.

Lando Norris Wins the São Paulo Grand Prix by at Least 15 Seconds

Simply put, Lando's dominance does not stop on Sunday. He has topped every single session thus far, so thinking it would change during the Grand Prix is not logical. Norris is at the top of his game right now, and with the weather showing clear skies, he should have little issue keeping the lead. Of course, his weakness is race starts, but other than that, the competition for the win is nonexistent.

Do I think Mercedes can hang around? Maybe, but just because Antonelli put pressure on Norris in a 24-lap sprint does not mean it will translate to a 71-lap Grand Prix. The track will not be slippery, the temps will be different, and the management of the race is an entirely different ballgame. So theoretically, Norris may be under some pressure, but Sunday's race will have a much different outlook. If the weather stays dry, which all signs point to that being the case, I simply can't see Norris losing if he can help it.