Can Drake Maye Pass His Biggest Test Yet? Patriots-Texans Preview

Matt Hylen
5 days ago
4 min read

Photo Credit to Charles LeClaire, Eric Canha

Round two of the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs is officially here, with the 2-seeded New England Patriots taking on the 5-seeded Houston Texans. New England, coming off a gritty 16-3 win over the LA Chargers, will be looking to exploit what is an elite Houston defense. As for Houston, who is coming off a 30-6 blowout win over the Steelers, the defense will need to step up once again with the offense banged up.

The game is set to kick off on ESPN and ABC at 3 p.m. EST in Foxboro, with the weather expected to be a high of 33 degrees.

So, can Drake Maye and the Patriots find a way to exploit the unstoppable force of the Texans' defense, or will C.J. Stroud and the Texans find a way to put points on the board without some key offensive players? Let's dive into it.

Keys to the Game: Patriots

Photo Credit to Sarah Stier/Getty Images

My first key to the game for the Patriots is to find ways to get Drake Maye involved using his feet. This worked wonders not just for the offense against a good defense in LA last week, but is also simply another aspect of the Patriots' offense the Texans would have to watch out for. Houston has also allowed the 4th-highest EPA per carry on QB runs and the 9th-most yards per attempt on QB runs (7.8). This Texans' defense is extremely aggressive and is not afraid to get physical at the line of scrimmage, so scheming a game plan that allows not only Maye to improvise and use his feet, but to use his feet in a designed manner, could do wonders for the Patriots' offense.

Secondly, I think the tight ends need to be involved often if the Pats want any chance of moving the ball downfield. Houston has allowed a QB rating of 123.8 when TEs are targeted over the past seven weeks, the 9th-highest in football over that span. With Hunter Henry a staple within the passing game and Austin Hooper always in line for a couple of big opportunities, OC Josh McDaniels needs to scheme around these guys especially in order to exploit Houston.

Last but certainly not least, New England needs to stop the run. The only real way Houston was able to move the ball downfield against the Steelers last week was due to Woody Marks' ability to find the open holes. With nose tackle Khyiris Tonga back for this game, it should give New England a huge boost within the trenches. If the defense forces C.J. Stroud into third-and-long situations or even just a pass-heavy scheme, it could be a long day for Houston's offense.

Keys to the Game: Texans

For Houston, the biggest key in my mind is to not shy away from their defensive identity. The defense has been a top-3 unit all year long and is the biggest reason they are in the position they are currently in. This cannot change regardless of what the offense is doing. Turnovers need to be forced with good field position given if the Texans want to escape Foxboro with a victory. One of Drake Maye's biggest flaws is his unwillingness to throw the ball away and accept defeat on a given play. This is something Houston needs to exploit if they want any chance of staying in this game.

Secondly, one of the receivers needs to step up again. With Nico Collins all but confirmed out of this contest with a concussion, C.J. Stroud needs one of the supporting cast of receivers to come up big. Christian Kirk played this role last week with an 8-catch and 144-yard performance, but it does not necessarily have to be him. Sure, it would be nice for Kirk to repeat last week's performance, but Jayden Higgins and Dalton Schultz are more than worthy candidates and have stepped up at times this season.

My final key to the game is that Houston cannot shy away from the run if it does not work initially. Too many games have been lost for the Texans this season because their offense becomes something they're not, which is a pass-heavy offense. Houston has two solid RBs in Woody Marks and Nick Chubb, use them! Throw them into different packages and see what works, but if it does not right away, they need to keep trying on early downs. New England's defense has thrived all season long whenever they are able to stop the run, causing teams to give up far too early into games. In order to put points on the board and move the ball downfield, the Texans need to rely on the run attack to set up Stroud for the play-action pass.

Who Wins?

Another crazy tough game to predict. Both defenses are coming off monster games, which makes me believe this will not be a high-scoring affair. I am looking forward to seeing which defense creates the most turnovers because that very well could win their team the game.

For me, it comes down to which offense I trust to score points when it matters most; that for me is the Patriots. We saw last week and all season long, when Drake Maye and the offense were not clicking, Maye pulled the team back and found a way to score in crunch time. I just have not seen that enough from Houston. Too many times this team will settle for field goals or punts where more could have been done, which will not fly against a legitimate team in the playoffs.

So, I am going with the home team and picking the Patriots to defeat the Texans by a score of 17-13. Again, I do not expect either offense to explode, but I trust Maye to make the clutch plays a little more than I trust Stroud without Nico Collins. That being said, this game can absolutely go either way as the Texans' defense is just that good, but give me the Patriots to move on to the AFC Championship game.